Services PMI® at 56.7%; July 2022 Services ISM® Report On Business®

Business Activity Index at 59.9%; New Orders Index at 59.9%; Employment Index at 49.1%; Supplier Deliveries Index at 57.8%

TEMPE, Ariz., Aug. 3, 2022 /PRNewswire/ — Economic activity in the services sector grew in July for the 26th month in a row — with the Services PMI^® registering 56.7 percent — say the nation’s purchasing and supply executives in the latest Services ISM^® Report On Business^®.

The report was issued today by Anthony Nieves, CPSM, C.P.M., A.P.P., CFPM, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management^® (ISM^®) Services Business Survey Committee: “In July, the Services PMI^® registered 56.7 percent, 1.4 percentage points higher than June’s reading of 55.3 percent. The Business Activity Index registered 59.9 percent, an increase of 3.8 percentage points compared to the reading of 56.1 percent in June. The New Orders Index figure of 59.9 percent is 4.3 percentage points higher than the June reading of 55.6 percent.

“The Supplier Deliveries Index registered 57.8 percent, 4.1 percentage points lower than the 61.9 percent reported in June. (Supplier Deliveries is the only ISM^® Report On Business^® index that is inversed; a reading of above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries, which is typical as the economy improves and customer demand increases.)

“The Prices Index decreased for the third consecutive month in July, down 7.8 percentage points to 72.3 percent. Services businesses continue to struggle to replenish inventories, as the Inventories Index contracted for the second consecutive month; the reading of 45 percent is down 2.5 percentage points from June’s figure of 47.5 percent. The Inventory Sentiment Index (50.1 percent, up 3.9 percentage points from June’s reading of 46.2 percent) moved into expansion territory in July after four consecutive months of contraction.”

Nieves continues, “According to the Services PMI^®, 13 industries reported growth. The composite index indicated growth for the 26th consecutive month after a two-month contraction in April and May 2020. Growth continues — at a faster rate — for the services sector, which has expanded for all but two of the last 150 months. The slight increase in services sector growth was due to an increase in business activity and new orders. The Employment Index (49.1 percent) contracted for the second consecutive month, and the Backlog of Orders Index decreased 2.2 percentage points, to 58.3 percent. Availability issues with overland trucking, a restricted labor pool, various material shortages and inflation continue to be impediments for the services sector.”

INDUSTRY PERFORMANCE
The 13 services industries reporting growth in July — listed in order — are: Mining; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Public Administration; Management of Companies & Support Services; Construction; Educational Services; Other Services; Utilities; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; Transportation & Warehousing; Wholesale Trade; and Information. The three industries reporting a decrease in the month of July are: Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Retail Trade; and Finance & Insurance.

WHAT RESPONDENTS ARE SAYING

• “Restaurant sales have softened the past few weeks (due to) post-holiday and seasonality factors, but we’re also hearing because of consumer pressures, particularly fuel and food prices. Staffing remains a challenge in some markets. Many of our locations in (Los Angeles County) received news that there could be a return to (indoor) mask mandates.” [Accommodation & Food Services]
• “Interest rates have significantly impacted the homebuilding market. Cancellation rates have increased, as homebuyers can no longer afford the monthly payment. Traffic to our communities is down. Inflation has sidelined many would-be buyers.” [Construction]
• “Strengthening market overall and signs of improvement. Increased prices putting a strain on fixed budgets. There has been a shift from driving down costs to securing continuity of supply. Higher education is growing, with an increase in applicants.” [Educational Services]
• “Business continues to remain below pre-pandemic levels. (Patient) census and visits have increased but seem to have plateaued in the last six-month period.” [Health Care & Social Assistance]
• “Can feel the economy weakening. Clients are making appropriate moves in anticipation of a recession.” [Management of Companies & Support Services]
• “Hiring demand remains robust in most industry sectors. Tech has had a slowdown in hiring and layoffs. It’s still a candidate’s market, as the number of job openings across all skill levels and positions remains far greater than the number of candidates for those roles.” [Professional, Scientific & Technical Services]
• “Rising costs across the board seems to be the big focus now. Fuel and food are the most common focus but it is across the board, and there is pressure of a job market shortage for qualified workers to increase wages and other benefits.” [Public Administration]
• “(We are) in inventory reduction mode, attempting to match inventory levels to current lower sales trends.” [Retail Trade]
• “Holding steady, but some headwinds are definitely ahead on the economic front. However, supply chain issues appear to be easing, though still not great.” [Utilities]
• “Food service remains strong. Retail is softening as mass is overly concerned about inventory and consumer spending.” [Wholesale Trade]

Services ISM^® Report On Business^® data is seasonally adjusted for the Business Activity, New Orders, Employment and Prices indexes. Manufacturing ISM^® Report On Business^® data is seasonally adjusted for New Orders, Production, Employment and Inventories indexes.

*Number of months moving in current direction.

COMMODITIES REPORTED UP/DOWN IN PRICE, AND IN SHORT SUPPLY

Commodities Up in Price
Aluminum Products* (8); Chemicals (4); Coated Freesheet; Computer Accessories; Diesel Fuel (20); Eggs; Electrical Components (18); Fuel* (19); Freight Rates; Gasoline (20); Hotel Rates (3); Heating, Ventilation and Air Conditioning (HVAC) Equipment; Labor (20); Labor — Contingent; Medical Supplies; Steel Products (19); Transformers (2); Transportation Costs; Travel (3); and Utilities.

Commodities Down in Price
Aluminum Products*; Copper Wires; Fuel*; Lumber (2); Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) Conduit; and Steel.

Commodities in Short Supply
Appliances (5); Coated Freesheet; Computer Hardware; Electrical Components (4); Food and Beverages; Labor (12); Masks; Microchips (3); Needles and Syringes (7); Paper Products (5); Resin Based Products; Transformers (3); and Vehicles.

Note: The number of consecutive months the commodity is listed is indicated after each item. *Indicates both up and down in price.

JULY 2022 SERVICES INDEX SUMMARIES

Services PMI^®
In July, the Services PMI^® registered 56.7 percent, a 1.4-percentage point increase compared to the June reading of 55.3 percent. The 12-month average is 60.2 percent, reflecting consistently strong growth in the services sector, which has expanded for 26 consecutive months. A reading above 50 percent indicates the services sector economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates the services sector is generally contracting.

A Services PMI^® above 50.1 percent, over time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy. Therefore, the July Services PMI^® indicates the overall economy has followed the same path as the services sector: expansion for 26 straight months following two months of contraction and a preceding period of 122 months of growth. Nieves says, “The past relationship between the Services PMI^® and the overall economy indicates that the Services PMI^® for July (56.7 percent) corresponds to a 2.4-percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis.”

SERVICES PMI^® HISTORY

Business Activity
ISM^®‘s Business Activity Index registered 59.9 percent in July, an increase of 3.8 percentage points from the reading of 56.1 percent in June, indicating growth for the 26th consecutive month. Comments from respondents include: “With a new fiscal year starting on July 1, an uptick in demand of goods and services” and “Seeing more critical material come in, which allowed us to work on more projects.”

The 13 industries reporting an increase in business activity for the month of July — listed in order — are: Mining; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Educational Services; Public Administration; Management of Companies & Support Services; Utilities; Construction; Other Services; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; Wholesale Trade; Transportation & Warehousing; and Information. The four industries reporting a decrease in business activity for the month of July are: Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Accommodation & Food Services; Retail Trade; and Finance & Insurance.

New Orders
ISM^®‘s New Orders Index registered 59.9 percent, up 4.3 percentage points from the June reading of 55.6 percent. New orders grew for the 26th consecutive month after two months of contraction and a preceding period of 128 months of expansion. Comments from respondents include: “Requests for new business” and “Moderate volume increases over the previous month.”

Eleven industries reported growth of new orders in July, in the following order: Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Mining; Educational Services; Public Administration; Transportation & Warehousing; Other Services; Utilities; Management of Companies & Support Services; Construction; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; and Health Care & Social Assistance. The five industries reporting a decrease in new orders in July are: Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Accommodation & Food Services; Retail Trade; Information; and Wholesale Trade.

Employment
Employment activity in the services sector contracted in July for the fourth time in the last six months. ISM^®‘s Employment Index registered 49.1 percent, up 1.7 percentage points from the June reading of 47.4 percent. Comments from respondents include: “Employee turnover, backfills taking longer to locate and onboard” and “Difficulties hiring new candidates as we lose more people who retire or leave the company for new opportunities.”

The eight industries reporting an increase in employment in July — listed in order — are: Mining; Construction; Accommodation & Food Services; Other Services; Management of Companies & Support Services; Public Administration; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; and Wholesale Trade. The seven industries reporting a decrease in employment in July — listed in order — are: Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Finance & Insurance; Educational Services; Transportation & Warehousing; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Utilities; and Health Care & Social Assistance.

Supplier Deliveries
The Supplier Deliveries Index registered 57.8 percent, down 4.1 percentage points from the 61.9 percent registered in June. A reading above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries, while a reading below 50 percent indicates faster deliveries. Comments from respondents include: “Lack of drivers for delivery companies due to labor shortages” and “Global supply issues are causing uncertainty on when and how many products will arrive.”

The 14 industries reporting slower deliveries in July — listed in order — are: Mining; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Finance & Insurance; Accommodation & Food Services; Educational Services; Construction; Utilities; Health Care & Social Assistance; Management of Companies & Support Services; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Public Administration; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Transportation & Warehousing; and Information. No industry reported faster deliveries in July.

Inventories
The Inventories Index contracted in July for the second consecutive month after four straight months of growth preceded by an eight-month period of contraction. The reading of 45 percent was a 2.5-percentage point decrease from the 47.5 percent reported in June. Of the total respondents in July, 41 percent indicated they do not have inventories or do not measure them. Comments from respondents include: “Long lead times have consumed safety stock” and “Inventories are still lower than desired due to supply chain issues.”

The seven industries reporting an increase in inventories in July — listed in order — are: Mining; Utilities; Wholesale Trade; Educational Services; Transportation & Warehousing; Public Administration; and Professional, Scientific & Technical Services. The 10 industries reporting a decrease in inventories in July — listed in order — are: Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Retail Trade; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Other Services; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Management of Companies & Support Services; Finance & Insurance; Health Care & Social Assistance; Construction; and Information.

Prices
Prices paid by services organizations for materials and services increased in July for the 62nd consecutive month, with the index registering 72.3 percent, 7.8 percentage points lower than the 80.1 percent recorded in June. This is the first Prices Index reading below 80 percent since September 2021 and its steepest month-over-month decrease since an 8.7-percentage point drop in May 2017.

Sixteen services industries reported an increase in prices paid during the month of July, in the following order: Mining; Public Administration; Information; Accommodation & Food Services; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Educational Services; Finance & Insurance; Management of Companies & Support Services; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Transportation & Warehousing; Construction; Health Care & Social Assistance; Other Services; Utilities; and Wholesale Trade. No industry reported a decrease in prices in July.

NOTE: Commodities reported as up in price and down in price are listed in the commodities section of this report.

Backlog of Orders
The ISM^® Services Backlog of Orders Index grew in July for the 19th consecutive month. The index registered 58.3 percent, a 2.2-percentage point decrease compared to the June reading of 60.5 percent. Of the total respondents in July, 40 percent indicated they do not measure backlog of orders. Respondent comments include: “Delays caused by long lead times for components” and “Higher backlog than previous month as suppliers try to keep up with orders and slowing deliveries.”

The nine industries reporting an increase in order backlogs in July — listed in order — are: Accommodation & Food Services; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Other Services; Public Administration; Utilities; Educational Services; Retail Trade; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; and Health Care & Social Assistance. The five industries reporting a decrease in order backlogs in July are: Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Finance & Insurance; Construction; and Wholesale Trade.

New Export Orders
Orders and requests for services and other non-manufacturing activities to be provided outside of the U.S. by domestically based companies grew in July for the sixth consecutive month. The New Export Orders Index registered 59.5 percent, a 2-percentage point increase from the 57.5 percent reported in June. Of the total respondents in July, 79 percent indicated they do not perform, or do not separately measure, orders for work outside of the U.S.

The six industries reporting an increase in new export orders in July — listed in order — are: Accommodation & Food Services; Mining; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Construction; Utilities; and Educational Services. Six industries reported a decrease in new export orders in July, in the following order: Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Information; Transportation & Warehousing; Wholesale Trade; and Professional, Scientific & Technical Services. Six industries indicated no change in new export orders in July.

Imports
The Imports Index contracted in July for the second consecutive month, registering 48 percent, up 1.7 percentage points from June’s reading of 46.3 percent. Eighty percent of respondents reported that they do not use, or do not track the use of, imported materials.

The seven industries reporting an increase in imports for the month of July — listed in order — are: Mining; Information; Transportation & Warehousing; Educational Services; Utilities; Wholesale Trade; and Health Care & Social Assistance. The five industries that reported a decrease in imports in July are: Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Other Services; and Accommodation & Food Services. Six industries reported no change in imports in July.

Inventory Sentiment
The ISM^® Services Inventory Sentiment Index grew in July after four previous months of contraction, registering 50.1 percent, a 3.9-percentage point increase from June’s figure of 46.2 percent. This reading indicates that respondents feel their inventories are slightly high when correlated to business activity levels.

The five industries reporting sentiment that their inventories were too high in July are: Retail Trade; Health Care & Social Assistance; Information; Wholesale Trade; and Utilities. The six industries reporting a feeling that their inventories were too low in July — listed in order — are: Accommodation & Food Services; Management of Companies & Support Services; Educational Services; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; and Construction. Six industries reported no change in July.

About This Report
DO NOT CONFUSE THIS NATIONAL REPORT with the various regional purchasing reports released across the country. The national report’s information reflects the entire U.S., while the regional reports contain primarily regional data from their local vicinities. Also, the information in the regional reports is not used in calculating the results of the national report. The information compiled in this report is for the month of July 2022.

The data presented herein is obtained from a survey of supply executives in the services sector based on information they have collected within their respective organizations. ISM^® makes no representation, other than that stated within this release, regarding the individual company data collection procedures. The data should be compared to all other economic data sources when used in decision-making.

Data and Method of Presentation
The Services ISM^® Report On Business^® (formerly the Non-Manufacturing ISM^® Report On Business^®) is based on data compiled from purchasing and supply executives nationwide. Membership of the Services Business Survey Committee (formerly Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee) is diversified by NAICS, based on each industry’s contribution to gross domestic product (GDP). The Services Business Survey Committee responses are divided into the following NAICS code categories: Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Mining; Utilities; Construction; Wholesale Trade; Retail Trade; Transportation & Warehousing; Information; Finance & Insurance; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Management of Companies & Support Services; Educational Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Accommodation & Food Services; Public Administration; and Other Services (services such as Equipment & Machinery Repairing; Promoting or Administering Religious Activities; Grantmaking; Advocacy; and Providing Dry-Cleaning & Laundry Services, Personal Care Services, Death Care Services, Pet Care Services, Photofinishing Services, Temporary Parking Services, and Dating Services). The data are weighted based on each industry’s contribution to GDP. According to the BEA estimates for 2020 GDP (released December 22, 2021), the six largest services sectors are: Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Government; Professional, Scientific, & Technical Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; Information; and Finance & Insurance. Beginning in February 2020 with January 2020 data, computation of the indexes is accomplished utilizing unrounded numbers.

Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month. For each of the indicators measured (Business Activity, New Orders, Backlog of Orders, New Export Orders, Inventory Change, Inventory Sentiment, Imports, Prices, Employment and Supplier Deliveries), this report shows the percentage reporting each response and the diffusion index. Responses represent raw data and are never changed. Data is seasonally adjusted for Business Activity, New Orders, Prices and Employment. All seasonal adjustment factors are subject annually to relatively minor changes when conditions warrant them. The remaining indexes have not indicated significant seasonality.

The Services PMI^® is a composite index based on the diffusion indexes for four of the indicators with equal weights: Business Activity (seasonally adjusted), New Orders (seasonally adjusted), Employment (seasonally adjusted) and Supplier Deliveries. Diffusion indexes have the properties of leading indicators and are convenient summary measures showing the prevailing direction of change and the scope of change. An index reading above 50 percent indicates that the services economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally declining. Supplier Deliveries is an exception. A Supplier Deliveries Index above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries and below 50 percent indicates faster deliveries.

A Services PMI^® above 50.1 percent, over time, indicates that the overall economy, or gross domestic product (GDP), is generally expanding; below 50.1 percent, it is generally declining. The distance from 50 percent or 50.1 percent is indicative of the strength of the expansion or decline.

The Services ISM^® Report On Business^® survey is sent out to Services Business Survey Committee respondents the first part of each month. Respondents are asked to ONLY report on U.S. operations for the current month. ISM^® receives survey responses throughout most of any given month, with the majority of respondents generally waiting until late in the month to submit responses to give the most accurate picture of current business activity. ISM^® then compiles the report for release on the third business day of the following month.

The industries reporting growth, as indicated in the Services ISM^® Report On Business^® monthly report, are listed in the order of most growth to least growth. For the industries reporting contraction or decreases, those are listed in the order of the highest level of contraction/decrease to the least level of contraction/decrease.

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About Institute for Supply Management^®
Institute for Supply Management^® (ISM^®) serves supply management professionals in more than 90 countries. Its 50,000 members around the world manage about US$1 trillion in corporate and government supply chain procurement annually. Founded in 1915 as the first supply management institute in the world, ISM is committed to advancing the practice of supply management to drive value and competitive advantage for its members, contributing to a prosperous and sustainable world. ISM leads the profession through the ISM^® Report On Business^®, its highly regarded certification programs and the ISM^® Advance^™ Digital Platform. This report has been issued by the association since 1931, except for a four-year interruption during World War II.

The full text version of the Services ISM^® Report On Business^® is posted on ISM^®‘s website at www.ismrob.org on the third business day* of every month after 10:00 a.m. ET.

The next Services ISM^® Report On Business^® featuring August 2022 data will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET on Tuesday, September 6, 2022.

*Unless the New York Stock Exchange is closed.

SOURCE Institute for Supply Management

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