Anyone eager to buy a new Tesla knows the problem: it’s a loooooong time before you’ll get your car. A friend of a friend recently waited about a year for his Model X. Someone I know who ordered a Tesla Model Y sometime back has to wait until the spring for it.
Like many, “Troy Teslike” closely tracks order wait times for new orders. But he also closely tracks estimated production rates at Tesla’s various factories around the world. Combining these estimates, Troy comes up with an estimate for Tesla’s order backlog.
According to his calculations, Tesla reached a peak order backlog of 504,000 vehicles at the end of July (July 27). In the past month and week, that has dropped, but it is still a whopping 457,000 vehicles.
If you want a closer look, Troy really digs into the weeds, providing all of the relevant data by model and Tesla factory. He even indicates how much production from each factory is expected to go different places. Have a scroll through the second table below.
On Aug 21, Tesla’s 457K order backlog was equal to 112 days of global production, down from 123 days on July 27.
Tesla ideally wants to drop the backlog to 42 days (6 weeks) of production to create a better buying experience. pic.twitter.com/HvFEPueRhe
— Troy Teslike (@TroyTeslike) September 5, 2022
As to why Tesla’s backlog has shrunk considerably in the past month (despite still being huge), I was going to venture to explain it, but one Twitter user succinctly did so:
China economy cratered (covid lock downs, real estate collapse)
Europe energy prices skyrocketing, including electricity
US Fed aggressively hiking rates, fed tax credit slowing down new buyers
Tesla’s persistent backlog despite these headwinds is extraordinary
— Green Is Good (@solomg) September 5, 2022
Indeed, there are multiple major factors at play. Economies around the world may be slowing down a little (China: covid lockdowns and other economic challenges hitting; USA: Fed raising interest rates and people potentially delaying Tesla purchases to get the US EV tax credit in 2023; Europe: energy prices up and other challenges due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, all leading to depressed economic activity).
About half a year worth of order backlog and customers having to wait that long for their vehicles is not ideal, but it is certainly much better than having production overcapacity and having to find ways to stimulate demand!
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