“Troy Teslike” tracks Tesla data like no one else I know. In the past day, he published an interesting 2½ year breakdown. The table, below, shows how Tesla’s share of major BEV markets has declined in the past couple of years.
Looking at the biggest market, China, first, Tesla’s share of that BEV market dropped from 15.9% in Q2 2020 to 9.0% in Q2 2022.
Looking at Europe, Tesla’s share of the BEV market dropped from 15.4% in Q2 2020 to 8.0% in Q2 2020.
Looking at the USA (which is barely more than half the size of the European BEV market and far smaller than the Chinese BEV market), Tesla’s share dropped from 82.9% in Q2 2020 to 63.8% in Q2 2020.
Combining all of these markets, Tesla’s share of BEV sales (registrations) dropped from 25.1% in Q2 2020 to 15.6% in Q2 2022.
Image © Troy Teslike
Those drops are quite stunning, but there’s a lot to add for context here.
First of all, while Tesla’s share of these BEV markets declined substantially, Tesla’s actual global sales were up considerably. Going from 90,891 deliveries in Q2 2020 to 254,695 deliveries in Q2 2022, Tesla’s sales increased a tremendous 180.2%. With that in mind, the BEV share declines above look quite different. The key point is that as fast as Tesla’s production and sales are growing, these overall BEV markets are growing much faster.
As part of that, there are just a lot more electric vehicles on offer these days, and especially a lot more highly compelling, long-range, competitive EVs. There are hundreds of electric car models on the market these days (in Europe and China, at least), and people like diversity and choice. Each new BEV model release attracts new buyers. The biggest point here is that BEV markets are absolutely popping, and that should be seen as a good thing by any genuine Tesla fan since Tesla’s whole mission is to accelerate the transition to electric vehicles and clean, green, sustainable energy. If the market is growing much faster than fast-growing Tesla, that’s great news!
Here is the chart for the same table. It shows Tesla’s Market Share in (BEV) Battery Electric Vehicles. pic.twitter.com/ECjC2XRsOK
— Troy Teslike (@TroyTeslike) September 24, 2022
It’s also worth pointing out that Tesla is selling every vehicle it can make, so it’s not like Tesla is sitting on massive piles of inventory and suffering from weak demand. We don’t know Tesla’s true consumer demand level. However, as Tesla Giga Berlin and Tesla Giga Texas ramp up further, we should get a better idea of how demand for Tesla vehicles is evolving.
Although, while I’m not yet ready to read too much into this, it should also be acknowledged that Tesla has started shipping a lot more vehicles to new markets — Australia, Japan, Taiwan.
Probably the most common “critique” is one we get here a lot when publishing our various EV sales reports — some people think that cheap electric cars in China shouldn’t be counted.
Yes, those are included. I don’t agree that they should be excluded.
— Troy Teslike (@TroyTeslike) September 24, 2022
I agree with Troy. They are electric cars and they should thus be counted as electric cars in these kinds of reports. Of course, one could certainly compare by vehicle class, but that’s not the task here. These cheap electric cars that have gotten quite popular in China have doors, roofs, cargo space, and are electric — they count.
It’s fascinating to me that Tesla BEV market share has dropped from 25.1% in Q2 2020 to 15.6% in Q2 2022, but that doesn’t come across in the same way at all when you keep in mind that Tesla grew 180.2% in that timeframe. Also, recall that Elon Musk’s own long-term estimate or goal is that Tesla will settle at around 10% of the global auto market.
We’ll see what comes of these trends in the coming year. Any forecasts?
Related story: What’s Up With Tesla Wait Times In China?
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