Services PMI® at 56.7%; September 2022 Services ISM® Report On Business®

Business Activity Index at 59.1%; New Orders Index at 60.6%; Employment Index at 53%; Supplier Deliveries Index at 53.9%

TEMPE, Ariz., Oct. 5, 2022 /PRNewswire/ — Economic activity in the services sector grew in September for the 28th month in a row — with the Services PMI^® registering 56.7 percent — say the nation’s purchasing and supply executives in the latest Services ISM^® Report On Business^®.

The report was issued today by Anthony Nieves, CPSM, C.P.M., A.P.P., CFPM, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management^® (ISM^®) Services Business Survey Committee: “In September, the Services PMI^® registered 56.7 percent, 0.2 percentage point lower than August’s reading of 56.9 percent. The Business Activity Index registered 59.1 percent, a decrease of 1.8 percentage points compared to the reading of 60.9 percent in August. The New Orders Index figure of 60.6 percent is 1.2 percentage points lower than the August reading of 61.8 percent.

“The Supplier Deliveries Index registered 53.9 percent, 0.6 percentage point lower than the 54.5 percent reported in August. (Supplier Deliveries is the only ISM^® Report On Business^® index that is inversed; a reading of above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries, which is typical as the economy improves and customer demand increases.)

“The Prices Index decreased for the fifth consecutive month in September, down 2.8 percentage points to 68.7 percent. Services businesses still continue to struggle to replenish their stocks, as the Inventories Index contracted for the fourth consecutive month; the reading of 44.1 percent is down 2.1 percentage points from August’s figure of 46.2 percent. The Inventory Sentiment Index (47.2 percent, up 0.1 percentage point from August’s reading of 47.1 percent) contracted for the second consecutive month in September.”

Nieves continues, “According to the Services PMI^®, 15 industries reported growth. The composite index indicated growth for the 28th consecutive month after a two-month contraction in April and May 2020. Growth continues — at a slightly slower rate — for the services sector, which has expanded for all but two of the last 152 months. The services sector had a slight pullback in growth for the month of September due to decreases in business activity and new orders. Employment improved and supplier deliveries slowed at a slightly slower rate. Based on comments from Business Survey Committee respondents, there have been improvements regarding supply chain efficiency, operating capacity and materials availability; however, performance remains less than ideal. Employment continued to improve despite the restricted labor market.” 

INDUSTRY PERFORMANCE

The 15 services industries reporting growth in September — listed in order — are: Mining; Other Services; Educational Services; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Public Administration; Retail Trade; Wholesale Trade; Information; Utilities; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; Finance & Insurance; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Construction; and Management of Companies & Support Services. The three industries reporting a decrease in the month of September are: Accommodation & Food Services; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; and Transportation & Warehousing.

WHAT RESPONDENTS ARE SAYING

• “Sales at our restaurants seasonally trend down from August to October, and this year seems to be more severe compared to before the pandemic. General inflation concerns and consumer uncertainty are the likely causes, expressed by industry peers as well.” [Accommodation & Food Services]
• “General slowdown in sales. We believe high commodity prices and inflation have impacted consumers’ desire for fertilizer from our turf and ornamental division. Farmers have already cut back on consumption due to pricing and weather-related issues.” [Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting]
• “September is one of our slowest months of the year. We are gearing up to have a very busy fourth quarter and are seeing some signs of relief in our supply chain.” [Arts, Entertainment & Recreation]
• “Sales have slowed significantly. Very challenging market. Trying to build through backlog. Manufacturers, distributors and installation trades are still busy and passing on price increases, while we are discounting homes to stimulate sales. Margins are compressing.” [Construction]
• “Due to supply chain issues and inflation, we continue to limit purchases and/or start orders sooner than normal. In the higher education sector, the outlook is good for larger schools.” [Educational Services]
• “Labor pressures continue to depress business activity, as insufficient staffing levels are not allowing the hospital system to operate at capacity. Back orders remain unchanged from a month ago as shortages of raw materials — especially surgical grade Tyvek (synthetic polyethylene fiber), foam and plastics — persist and do not appear to be improving. Logistical lead times have decreased, but the impact on supply chains is limited amid product shortages.” [Health Care & Social Assistance]
• “Hiring continues to be a challenge across most industry sectors. There are far more open roles than candidates to fill them. Due to inflationary concerns, companies are being cautious about hiring direct employees and are attempting to utilize contingent labor. The lack of candidates willing to fill temporary positions is making this strategy difficult to execute.” [Professional, Scientific & Technical Services]
• “Chip shortage shows no signs of abating.” [Retail Trade]
• “Prices of fuel are leveling off (or) dropping in small increments. Still facing supply/demand issues with certain products — food, beverages, some raw construction material and semiconductor chips. Big concern is (China’s) zero-tolerance policy for COVID-19 cases. A lot of companies rely on products from China, and cities keep shutting down due to the policy. This greatly affects the orders outstanding and creates lead time uncertainty.” [Transportation & Warehousing]
• “Business activity has improved over last month but is still trending flat to slightly down versus the same period last year. Inventory levels are starting to fall from record highs, but overstocked items are still a problem. We expect lower demand and inventory rebalancing to impact business activity through the end of the calendar year.” [Wholesale Trade]

Services ISM^® Report On Business^® data is seasonally adjusted for the Business Activity, New Orders, Employment and Prices indexes. Manufacturing ISM^® Report On Business^® data is seasonally adjusted for New Orders, Production, Employment and Inventories indexes.

*Number of months moving in current direction.

COMMODITIES REPORTED UP/DOWN IN PRICE, AND IN SHORT SUPPLY

Commodities Up in Price
Cheese; Chicken (2); Concrete; Dairy; Drywall; Eggs; Electrical Components (20); Electrical Equipment; Electronic Components; Food and Beverages; Furniture; Labor (22); Labor — Construction (2); Labor — Contingent (3); Labor — Full Time; Labor — Services; Labor — Temporary (2); Natural Gas (2); Paper; Pipe and Fittings; Plumbing Services; Potato Products; Semiconductors; Soybean Oil (2); Steel Products* (21); Sugar; Transformers; and Truck Rentals.

Commodities Down in Price
Diesel Fuel (2); Fuel (3); Gasoline (2); Lumber; Ocean Freight (2); Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) Products; Steel; and Steel Products* (2).

Commodities in Short Supply
Appliances; Electrodes; Food Products; Heating, Ventilation and Air Conditioning (HVAC) Equipment; Labor (14); Microchips (5); Needles and Syringes; Paper (2); Plastic Pipes and Fittings; Transformers; Vacutainers; and Vehicles (3).

Note: The number of consecutive months the commodity is listed is indicated after each item. *Indicates both up and down in price.

SEPTEMBER 2022 SERVICES INDEX SUMMARIES

Services PMI^®
In September, the Services PMI^® registered 56.7 percent, a 0.2-percentage point decrease compared to the August reading of 56.9 percent. The 12-month average is 59.2 percent, reflecting consistently strong growth in the services sector, which has expanded for 28 consecutive months. A reading above 50 percent indicates the services sector economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates the services sector is generally contracting.

A Services PMI^® above 50.1 percent, over time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy. Therefore, the September Services PMI^® indicates the overall economy has followed the same path as the services sector: expansion for 28 straight months following two months of contraction and a preceding period of 122 months of growth. Nieves says, “The past relationship between the Services PMI^® and the overall economy indicates that the Services PMI^® for September (56.7 percent) corresponds to a 2.4-percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis.”

SERVICES PMI^® HISTORY

Business Activity
ISM^®‘s Business Activity Index registered 59.1 percent in September, a decrease of 1.8 percentage points from the reading of 60.9 percent in August, indicating growth for the 28th consecutive month. Comments from respondents include: “Production was higher to support sales” and “Increased activity due to the approaching end on the fiscal year.”

The 14 industries reporting an increase in business activity for the month of September — listed in order — are: Mining; Information; Other Services; Educational Services; Wholesale Trade; Health Care & Social Assistance; Finance & Insurance; Utilities; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Public Administration; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Retail Trade; and Transportation & Warehousing. The two industries reporting a decrease in business activity for the month of September are: Accommodation & Food Services; and Arts, Entertainment & Recreation.

New Orders
ISM^®‘s New Orders Index registered 60.6 percent, down 1.2 percentage points from the August reading of 61.8 percent. New orders grew for the 28th consecutive month after two months of contraction and a preceding period of 128 months of expansion. Comments from respondents include: “New customers added as our business continues to grow” and “New programs starting up.”

Thirteen industries reported growth of new orders in September, in the following order: Mining; Other Services; Retail Trade; Educational Services; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Information; Public Administration; Wholesale Trade; Health Care & Social Assistance; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Finance & Insurance; and Utilities. The two industries reporting a decrease in new orders in September are: Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; and Transportation & Warehousing.

Employment
Employment activity in the services sector grew in September for the second consecutive month after two previous months of contraction. ISM^®‘s Employment Index registered 53 percent, up 2.8 percentage points from the August reading of 50.2 percent. Comments from respondents include: “Organizational growth continues, although hiring continues to be a challenge” and “Cannot find qualified applicants —they require greater incentives because they have choices.”

The 10 industries reporting an increase in employment in September — listed in order — are: Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Mining; Retail Trade; Construction; Public Administration; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Educational Services; Other Services; Wholesale Trade; and Transportation & Warehousing. The two industries reporting a decrease in employment in September are: Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; and Accommodation & Food Services. Six industries reported no change in Employment in September.

Supplier Deliveries
The Supplier Deliveries Index registered 53.9 percent, down 0.6 percentage point from the 54.5 percent registered in August. A reading above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries, while a reading below 50 percent indicates faster deliveries. Comments from respondents include: “Worries about railway strikes and labor issues” and “Supplier capacity and supply chain issues; lead times still growing for more complex manufactured items.”

The 10 industries reporting slower deliveries in September — listed in order — are: Mining; Other Services; Utilities; Public Administration; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Management of Companies & Support Services; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Educational Services; Finance & Insurance; and Wholesale Trade. The six industries reporting faster supplier deliveries for the month of September — listed in order — are: Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Retail Trade; Accommodation & Food Services; Transportation & Warehousing; Information; and Health Care & Social Assistance.

Inventories
The Inventories Index contracted in September for the fourth consecutive month after four straight months of growth preceded by an eight-month period of contraction. The reading of 44.1 percent was a 2.1-percentage point decrease from the 46.2 percent reported in August. Of the total respondents in September, 37 percent indicated they do not have inventories or do not measure them. Comments from respondents include: “Burning down excess personal protective equipment” and “Late orders and logistics timing are creating lower-than-desired inventory.”

The eight industries reporting an increase in inventories in September — listed in order — are: Accommodation & Food Services; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Mining; Utilities; Information; Wholesale Trade; Public Administration; and Transportation & Warehousing. The 10 industries reporting a decrease in inventories in September — listed in order — are: Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Finance & Insurance; Other Services; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Management of Companies & Support Services; Retail Trade; Health Care & Social Assistance; Educational Services; Construction; and Professional, Scientific & Technical Services.

Prices
Prices paid by services organizations for materials and services increased in September for the 64th consecutive month, with the index registering 68.7 percent, 2.8 percentage points lower than the 71.5 percent recorded in August. The Prices Index continues to indicate movement toward equilibrium, with a third consecutive reading near or below 70 percent, following nine straight months of readings above 80 percent.

All 18 services industries reported an increase in prices paid during the month of September, in the following order: Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Public Administration; Health Care & Social Assistance; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Management of Companies & Support Services; Utilities; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Finance & Insurance; Information; Retail Trade; Construction; Other Services; Mining; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Educational Services; Accommodation & Food Services; Wholesale Trade; and Transportation & Warehousing.

NOTE: Commodities reported as up in price and down in price are listed in the commodities section of this report.

Backlog of Orders
The ISM^® Services Backlog of Orders Index grew in September for the 21st consecutive month. The index registered 52.5 percent, a 1.4-percentage point decrease compared to the August reading of 53.9 percent. Of the total respondents in September, 45 percent indicated they do not measure backlog of orders. Respondent comments include: “Delays caused by out-of-stock (items)” and “Suppliers are not meeting their stated lead times.”

The 10 industries reporting an increase in order backlogs in September — listed in order — are: Information; Management of Companies & Support Services; Finance & Insurance; Mining; Other Services; Educational Services; Utilities; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Construction; and Health Care & Social Assistance. The four industries reporting a decrease in order backlogs in September are: Retail Trade; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Public Administration; and Transportation & Warehousing.

New Export Orders
Orders and requests for services and other non-manufacturing activities to be provided outside of the U.S. by domestically based companies grew in September for the eighth consecutive month. The New Export Orders Index registered 65.1 percent, a 3.2-percentage point increase from the 61.9 percent reported in August. Of the total respondents in September, 77 percent indicated they do not perform, or do not separately measure, orders for work outside of the U.S.

The six industries reporting an increase in new export orders in September — listed in order — are: Management of Companies & Support Services; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Retail Trade; Information; Mining; and Educational Services. The three industries reporting a decrease in new export orders in September are: Other Services; Transportation & Warehousing; and Wholesale Trade. Nine industries indicated no change in new export orders in September.

Imports
The Imports Index grew in September after three consecutive months of contraction, registering 51.3 percent, up 3.1 percentage points from August’s reading of 48.2 percent. Seventy percent of respondents reported that they do not use, or do not track the use of, imported materials.

The six industries reporting an increase in imports for the month of September — listed in order — are: Mining; Accommodation & Food Services; Educational Services; Information; Construction; and Wholesale Trade. The three industries that reported a decrease in imports in September are: Other Services; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; and Health Care & Social Assistance. Nine industries reported no change in imports in September.

Inventory Sentiment
The ISM^® Services Inventory Sentiment Index contracted in September for the second straight month and the 16th time in the last 18 months. The index registered 47.2 percent, a 0.1-percentage point increase from August’s figure of 47.1 percent. This reading indicates that respondents feel their inventories are too low when correlated to business activity levels.

The five industries reporting sentiment that their inventories were too high in September are: Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Retail Trade; Construction; Wholesale Trade; and Health Care & Social Assistance. The seven industries reporting a feeling that their inventories were too low in September — listed in order — are: Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Management of Companies & Support Services; Transportation & Warehousing; Information; Public Administration; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; and Utilities. Six industries reported no change in September.

About This Report
DO NOT CONFUSE THIS NATIONAL REPORT with the various regional purchasing reports released across the country. The national report’s information reflects the entire U.S., while the regional reports contain primarily regional data from their local vicinities. Also, the information in the regional reports is not used in calculating the results of the national report. The information compiled in this report is for the month of September 2022.

The data presented herein is obtained from a survey of supply executives in the services sector based on information they have collected within their respective organizations. ISM^® makes no representation, other than that stated within this release, regarding the individual company data collection procedures. The data should be compared to all other economic data sources when used in decision-making.

Data and Method of Presentation
The Services ISM^® Report On Business^® (formerly the Non-Manufacturing ISM^® Report On Business^®) is based on data compiled from purchasing and supply executives nationwide. Membership of the Services Business Survey Committee (formerly Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee) is diversified by NAICS, based on each industry’s contribution to gross domestic product (GDP). The Services Business Survey Committee responses are divided into the following NAICS code categories: Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Mining; Utilities; Construction; Wholesale Trade; Retail Trade; Transportation & Warehousing; Information; Finance & Insurance; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Management of Companies & Support Services; Educational Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Accommodation & Food Services; Public Administration; and Other Services (services such as Equipment & Machinery Repairing; Promoting or Administering Religious Activities; Grantmaking; Advocacy; and Providing Dry-Cleaning & Laundry Services, Personal Care Services, Death Care Services, Pet Care Services, Photofinishing Services, Temporary Parking Services, and Dating Services). The data are weighted based on each industry’s contribution to GDP. According to the BEA estimates for 2020 GDP (released December 22, 2021), the six largest services sectors are: Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Government; Professional, Scientific, & Technical Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; Information; and Finance & Insurance. Beginning in February 2020 with January 2020 data, computation of the indexes is accomplished utilizing unrounded numbers.

Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month. For each of the indicators measured (Business Activity, New Orders, Backlog of Orders, New Export Orders, Inventory Change, Inventory Sentiment, Imports, Prices, Employment and Supplier Deliveries), this report shows the percentage reporting each response and the diffusion index. Responses represent raw data and are never changed. Data is seasonally adjusted for Business Activity, New Orders, Prices and Employment. All seasonal adjustment factors are subject annually to relatively minor changes when conditions warrant them. The remaining indexes have not indicated significant seasonality.

The Services PMI^® is a composite index based on the diffusion indexes for four of the indicators with equal weights: Business Activity (seasonally adjusted), New Orders (seasonally adjusted), Employment (seasonally adjusted) and Supplier Deliveries. Diffusion indexes have the properties of leading indicators and are convenient summary measures showing the prevailing direction of change and the scope of change. An index reading above 50 percent indicates that the services economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally declining. Supplier Deliveries is an exception. A Supplier Deliveries Index above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries and below 50 percent indicates faster deliveries.

A Services PMI^® above 50.1 percent, over time, indicates that the overall economy, or gross domestic product (GDP), is generally expanding; below 50.1 percent, it is generally declining. The distance from 50 percent or 50.1 percent is indicative of the strength of the expansion or decline.

The Services ISM^® Report On Business^® survey is sent out to Services Business Survey Committee respondents the first part of each month. Respondents are asked to ONLY report on U.S. operations for the current month. ISM^® receives survey responses throughout most of any given month, with the majority of respondents generally waiting until late in the month to submit responses to give the most accurate picture of current business activity. ISM^® then compiles the report for release on the third business day of the following month.

The industries reporting growth, as indicated in the Services ISM^® Report On Business^® monthly report, are listed in the order of most growth to least growth. For the industries reporting contraction or decreases, those are listed in the order of the highest level of contraction/decrease to the least level of contraction/decrease.

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About Institute for Supply Management^®
Institute for Supply Management^® (ISM^®) serves supply management professionals in more than 90 countries. Its 50,000 members around the world manage about US$1 trillion in corporate and government supply chain procurement annually. Founded in 1915 as the first supply management institute in the world, ISM is committed to advancing the practice of supply management to drive value and competitive advantage for its members, contributing to a prosperous and sustainable world. ISM leads the profession through the ISM^® Report On Business^®, its highly regarded certification programs and the ISM^® Advance^™ Digital Platform. This report has been issued by the association since 1931, except for a four-year interruption during World War II.

The full text version of the Services ISM^® Report On Business^® is posted on ISM^®‘s website at www.ismrob.org on the third business day* of every month after 10:00 a.m. ET.

The next Services ISM^® Report On Business^® featuring October 2022 data will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET on Thursday, November 3, 2022.

*Unless the New York Stock Exchange is closed.

SOURCE Institute for Supply Management

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