TrueCar Releases Analysis of October Industry Sales

Industry sales this month up 15% from a year ago 

SANTA MONICA, Calif., Oct. 28, 2022 /PRNewswire/ — TrueCar, Inc. (NASDAQ: TRUE), the easiest, most efficient and transparent online destination for buying and selling new and used vehicles, expects total new vehicle industry sales to reach 1,165,658 units in October 2022, up 15% from a year ago and about on par with September 2022, when adjusted for the same number of selling days. This month’s seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total light vehicle industry sales is an estimated 14.6 million, up 13% from October 2021. Excluding fleet sales, TrueCar expects U.S. retail deliveries of new cars and light trucks to be 995,808 units, up 9% from a year ago and down about 2% from September 2022.

“The sales pace has improved from a year ago though we expect it to be on par with the prior month when adjusting for selling days. With the backdrop of increased interest rates and sustained elevated pricing, the limiting factor for sales may be shifting from inventory to affordability,” said Zack Krelle, Industry Analyst at TrueCar. “We are keeping a close eye on counter-measures to tackle affordability concerns.”

“In October we’re seeing Honda, Nissan and General Motors continuing to gain traction in sales, with last month’s indication of positive growth materializing into this month,” said Justin Colon, Vice President of OEM Solutions at TrueCar. “GM’s huge push into electric vehicles is building momentum while the Malibu is currently positioned to capture sales as an affordability outlet.”

Additional October Industry Insights (from TrueCar):

  • Total sales for October 2022 are expected to be up 15% from a year ago and about even with September 2022 when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
  • Fleet sales for October 2022 are expected to be up 64% from a year ago and up 11% from September 2022 when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
  • Average transaction price for new vehicles is projected to be up 3% from a year ago and slightly down from September 2022.
  • Total SAAR is expected to be up 13% from a year ago at 14.6 million units.
  • Used vehicle sales for October 2022 are expected to reach almost 3 million, down 13% from a year ago and even with September 2022.
  • The average interest rate on new vehicles is 6.3% compared to September 2022 at 6% and the average interest rate on used vehicles is about 9%.
  • The average loan term on a new vehicle for October 2022 is about 70 months and the average loan term on a used vehicle is about 71 months.

Total Unit Sales



Manufacturer

Oct 2022 Forecast

Oct 2021 Actual

Sep 2022 Actual

YoY % Change

YoY % Change

(Daily Selling Rate)

MoM % Change

MoM % Change

(Daily Selling Rate)

BMW

28,411

28,231

27,332

0.6 %

4.5 %

3.9 %

0.0 %

Daimler

28,712

20,081

30,241

43.0 %

48.5 %

-5.1 %

-8.7 %

Ford

149,677

174,464

141,633

-14.2 %

-10.9 %

5.7 %

1.6 %

GM

203,007

133,168

186,532

52.4 %

58.3 %

8.8 %

4.6 %

Honda

85,813

97,083

79,354

-11.6 %

-8.2 %

8.1 %

4.0 %

Hyundai

64,976

62,061

64,372

4.7 %

8.7 %

0.9 %

-2.9 %

Kia

57,761

52,067

56,270

10.9 %

15.2 %

2.7 %

-1.3 %

Nissan

63,551

59,859

53,400

6.2 %

10.3 %

19.0 %

14.4 %

Stellantis

113,589

131,496

122,567

-13.6 %

-10.3 %

-7.3 %

-10.9 %

Subaru

46,539

36,817

45,658

26.4 %

31.3 %

1.9 %

-2.0 %

Tesla

45,895

27,137

44,576

69.1 %

75.6 %

3.0 %

-1.0 %

Toyota

185,184

146,670

175,577

26.3 %

31.1 %

5.5 %

1.4 %

Volkswagen Group

45,341

44,809

49,427

1.2 %

5.1 %

-8.3 %

-11.8 %

Industry

1,165,658

1,057,164

1,123,504

10.3 %

14.5 %

3.8 %

-0.2 %

Retail Unit Sales



Manufacturer

Oct 2022 Forecast

Oct 2021 Actual

Sep 2022 Actual

YoY % Change

YoY % Change

(Daily Selling Rate)

MoM % Change

MoM % Change

(Daily Selling Rate)

BMW

26,561

26,679

25,054

-0.4 %

3.4 %

6.0 %

1.9 %

Daimler

26,782

18,319

28,157

46.2 %

51.8 %

-4.9 %

-8.5 %

Ford

106,520

135,673

106,161

-21.5 %

-18.5 %

0.3 %

-3.5 %

GM

160,302

120,124

154,434

33.4 %

38.6 %

3.8 %

-0.2 %

Honda

83,730

96,584

77,119

-13.3 %

-10.0 %

8.6 %

4.4 %

Hyundai

63,407

61,257

63,665

3.5 %

7.5 %

-0.4 %

-4.2 %

Kia

55,798

48,874

54,393

14.2 %

18.6 %

2.6 %

-1.4 %

Nissan

55,590

53,227

43,668

4.4 %

8.5 %

27.3 %

22.4 %

Stellantis

83,742

105,427

97,743

-20.6 %

-17.5 %

-14.3 %

-17.6 %

Subaru

45,538

36,074

44,469

26.2 %

31.1 %

2.4 %

-1.5 %

Tesla

39,485

26,878

37,348

46.9 %

52.6 %

5.7 %

1.7 %

Toyota

166,442

137,503

157,414

21.0 %

25.7 %

5.7 %

1.7 %

Volkswagen Group

40,506

44,058

45,190

-8.1 %

-4.5 %

-10.4 %

-13.8 %

Industry

995,808

951,356

976,052

4.7 %

8.7 %

2.0 %

-1.9 %

Fleet Unit Sales



Manufacturer

Oct 2022 Forecast

Oct 2021 Actual

Sep 2022 Actual

YoY % Change

YoY % Change

(Daily Selling Rate)

MoM % Change

MoM % Change

(Daily Selling Rate)

BMW

1,850

1,552

2,278

19.2 %

23.8 %

-18.8 %

-21.9 %

Daimler

1,930

1,762

2,084

9.6 %

13.8 %

-7.4 %

-11.0 %

Ford

43,157

38,791

35,472

11.3 %

15.5 %

21.7 %

17.0 %

GM

42,705

13,044

32,098

227.4 %

240.0 %

33.0 %

27.9 %

Honda

2,083

499

2,235

317.5 %

333.6 %

-6.8 %

-10.4 %

Hyundai

1,569

804

707

95.1 %

102.6 %

121.8 %

113.3 %

Kia

1,963

3,193

1,877

-38.5 %

-36.2 %

4.6 %

0.6 %

Nissan

7,961

6,632

9,732

20.0 %

24.7 %

-18.2 %

-21.3 %

Stellantis

29,847

26,069

24,824

14.5 %

18.9 %

20.2 %

15.6 %

Subaru

1,001

743

1,189

34.7 %

39.9 %

-15.8 %

-19.0 %

Tesla

6,410

259

7,228

2376.9 %

2472.1 %

-11.3 %

-14.7 %

Toyota

18,742

9,167

18,163

104.4 %

112.3 %

3.2 %

-0.8 %

Volkswagen Group

4,835

751

4,237

543.9 %

568.7 %

14.1 %

9.7 %

Industry

166,917

105,610

144,519

58.1 %

64.1 %

15.5 %

11.1 %

Fleet Penetration

Manufacturer

Oct 2022 Forecast

Oct 2021 Actual

Sep 2022 Actual

YoY % Change

MoM % Change

BMW

6.5 %

5.5 %

8.3 %

18.4 %

-21.9 %

Daimler

6.7 %

8.8 %

6.9 %

-23.4 %

-2.5 %

Ford

28.8 %

22.2 %

25.0 %

29.7 %

15.1 %

GM

21.0 %

9.8 %

17.2 %

114.8 %

22.2 %

Honda

2.4 %

0.5 %

2.8 %

372.4 %

-13.8 %

Hyundai

2.4 %

1.3 %

1.1 %

86.3 %

119.7 %

Kia

3.4 %

6.1 %

3.3 %

-44.6 %

1.9 %

Nissan

12.5 %

11.1 %

18.2 %

13.1 %

-31.3 %

Stellantis

26.3 %

19.8 %

20.3 %

32.5 %

29.7 %

Subaru

2.2 %

2.0 %

2.6 %

6.6 %

-17.4 %

Tesla

14.0 %

1.0 %

16.2 %

1364.5 %

-13.9 %

Toyota

10.1 %

6.3 %

10.3 %

61.9 %

-2.2 %

Volkswagen Group

10.7 %

1.7 %

8.6 %

536.4 %

24.4 %

Industry

14.3 %

10.0 %

12.9 %

43.3 %

11.3 %

Total Market Share

Manufacturer

Oct 2022 Forecast

Oct 2021 Actual

Sep 2022 Actual

BMW

2.4 %

2.7 %

2.4 %

Daimler

2.5 %

1.9 %

2.7 %

Ford

12.8 %

16.5 %

12.6 %

GM

17.4 %

12.6 %

16.6 %

Honda

7.4 %

9.2 %

7.1 %

Hyundai

5.6 %

5.9 %

5.7 %

Kia

5.0 %

4.9 %

5.0 %

Nissan

5.5 %

5.7 %

4.8 %

Stellantis

9.7 %

12.4 %

10.9 %

Subaru

4.0 %

3.5 %

4.1 %

Tesla

3.9 %

2.6 %

4.0 %

Toyota

15.9 %

13.9 %

15.6 %

Volkswagen Group

3.9 %

4.2 %

4.4 %


96.0 %

95.9 %

95.9 %

Retail Market Share

Manufacturer

Oct 2022 Forecast

Oct 2021 Actual

Sep 2022 Actual

BMW

2.7 %

2.8 %

2.6 %

Daimler

2.7 %

1.9 %

2.9 %

Ford

10.7 %

14.3 %

10.9 %

GM

16.1 %

12.6 %

15.8 %

Honda

8.4 %

10.2 %

7.9 %

Hyundai

6.4 %

6.4 %

6.5 %

Kia

5.6 %

5.1 %

5.6 %

Nissan

5.6 %

5.6 %

4.5 %

Stellantis

8.4 %

11.1 %

10.0 %

Subaru

4.6 %

3.8 %

4.6 %

Tesla

4.0 %

2.8 %

3.8 %

Toyota

16.7 %

14.5 %

16.1 %

Volkswagen Group

4.1 %

4.6 %

4.6 %


95.8 %

95.7 %

95.8 %

ATP



Manufacturer

Oct 2022 Forecast

Oct 2021 Actual

Sep 2022 Actual

YOY

MOM

BMW

$70,632

$62,204

$69,542

13.5 %

1.6 %

Daimler

$71,531

$67,638

$68,945

5.8 %

3.8 %

Ford

$52,108

$49,608

$51,921

5.0 %

0.4 %

GM

$51,718

$53,408

$51,624

-3.2 %

0.2 %

Honda

$37,947

$34,977

$38,218

8.5 %

-0.7 %

Hyundai

$37,161

$35,849

$36,779

3.7 %

1.0 %

Kia

$34,177

$32,872

$34,749

4.0 %

-1.6 %

Nissan

$36,529

$34,846

$35,765

4.8 %

2.1 %

Stellantis

$54,549

$50,989

$54,546

7.0 %

0.0 %

Subaru

$33,961

$33,731

$34,758

0.7 %

-2.3 %

Toyota

$39,922

$41,166

$40,541

-3.0 %

-1.5 %

Volkswagen Group

$46,462

$45,009

$46,656

3.2 %

-0.4 %

Industry

$44,625

$43,352

$44,845

2.9 %

-0.5 %


$1,273


-$220



Revenue



Manufacturer

Oct 2022 Forecast

Oct 2021 Actual

Sep 2022 Actual

YOY

MOM

Industry

$52,017,395,876

$45,829,774,915

$50,384,007,197

13.5 %

3.2 %

(Note: This industry insight is based solely on TrueCar, Inc.’s analysis of domestic industry sales trends and conditions and is not a projection of TrueCar, Inc.’s operations.)

About TrueCar

TrueCar is a leading automotive digital marketplace that lets auto buyers and sellers connect to our nationwide network of Certified Dealers. With access to an expansive inventory provided by our Certified Dealers, we are building the industry’s most personalized and efficient auto shopping experience as we seek to bring more of the process online. Consumers who visit our marketplace will find a suite of vehicle discovery tools, price ratings and market context on new, used and Certified Pre-Owned vehicles. When they are ready, shoppers in TrueCar’s marketplace can connect with a Certified Dealer in our network, who shares our belief that truth, transparency and fairness are the foundation of a great auto shopping experience. As part of our marketplace, TrueCar powers auto-buying programs for over 250 leading brands, including AARP, Sam’s Club, Navy Federal Credit Union and American Express.

For more information, please visit www.truecar.com, and follow us on LinkedInFacebook or Twitter

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