Services PMI® at 56.5%; November 2022 Services ISM® Report On Business®

Business Activity Index at 64.7%; New Orders Index at 56%; Employment Index at 51.5%; Supplier Deliveries Index at 53.8%

TEMPE, Ariz., Dec. 5, 2022 /PRNewswire/ — Economic activity in the services sector grew in November for the 30th month in a row — with the Services PMI^® registering 56.5 percent — say the nation’s purchasing and supply executives in the latest Services ISM^® Report On Business^®.

The report was issued today by Anthony Nieves, CPSM, C.P.M., A.P.P., CFPM, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management^® (ISM^®) Services Business Survey Committee: “In November, the Services PMI^® registered 56.5 percent, 2.1 percentage points higher than October’s reading of 54.4 percent. The Business Activity Index registered 64.7 percent, a substantial increase of 9 percentage points compared to the reading of 55.7 percent in October. The New Orders Index figure of 56 percent is 0.5 percentage point lower than the October reading of 56.5 percent.

“The Supplier Deliveries Index registered 53.8 percent, 2.4 percentage points lower than the 56.2 percent reported in October. (Supplier Deliveries is the only ISM^® Report On Business^® index that is inversed; a reading of above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries, which is typical as the economy improves and customer demand increases.)

“The Prices Index was down 0.7 percentage point in November, to 70 percent. Services businesses still continue to struggle to replenish their stocks, as the Inventories Index contracted for the sixth consecutive month; the reading of 47.9 percent is up 0.7 percentage point from October’s figure of 47.2 percent. The Inventory Sentiment Index (44.2 percent, down 2.2 percentage points from October’s reading of 46.4 percent) contracted for the fourth month in a row.

“According to the Services PMI^®, 13 industries reported growth. The composite index indicated growth for the 30th consecutive month after a two-month contraction in April and May 2020. Growth continues at a faster rate for the services sector, which has expanded for all but two of the last 154 months. The sector had an uptick in growth after pulling back in the previous two months. The rate of growth increased in November due to increases in business activity and employment.”

Nieves continues, “Supplier deliveries continued to slow, albeit at a slower rate in November. Based on comments from Business Survey Committee respondents, increased capacity and shorter lead times have resulted in a continued improvement in supply chain and logistics performance. A new fiscal period and the holiday season have contributed to stronger business activity and increased employment.” 

INDUSTRY PERFORMANCE
The 13 services industries reporting growth in November — listed in order — are: Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Mining; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Other Services; Construction; Health Care & Social Assistance; Public Administration; Retail Trade; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Accommodation & Food Services; Utilities; Transportation & Warehousing; and Educational Services. The three industries reporting a decrease in the month of November are: Management of Companies & Support Services; Wholesale Trade; and Information.

WHAT RESPONDENTS ARE SAYING

• “Business is doing well, almost back to pre-coronavirus pandemic volumes.” [Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting]
• “Generally unchanged month over month. New business requests are solid, with costs rising steadily for materials, meals and lodging.” [Construction]
• “Still long lead times for service-related needs. A slight downturn in fuel costs in this region, but we are still experiencing supply chain shortages and delays.” [Educational Services]
• “The labor forecast has improved, which has led to our ability to increase caseload, translating to higher surgical volumes. Some medical/surgical goods categories remain constrained — Vacutainer (blood collection tubes), wound care kits, syringes, hypodermic needles — but seeing modest improvement in other categories. Despite the uptick in RSV (respiratory syncytial virus) and flu, we anticipate that business activity will remain strong through the end of 2022.” [Health Care & Social Assistance]
• “The demand for energy services remains very strong for the foreseeable future.” [Mining]
• “No change from previous months — strong RFQ activity from our customers, but we’re struggling to get electronic materials. Suppliers are still holding to lead times between eight and 12 months for simple components. We don’t see this improving in 2023.” [Other Services]
• “Job openings are seemingly continuing to decrease, but with demand for top talent still high and availability still rather scarce, the opportunity for growth is still there.” [Professional, Scientific & Technical Services]
• “Overall business is stable. Employment is low and inflation is lower than last month. Supply chain issues are stabilizing.” [Retail Trade]
• “Still struggling with recruitment, though we are starting to see more (higher quality) applicants, and (we are) hopeful the situation will quantitatively change in the first quarter of 2023. There are still struggles with longer-than-usual lead times affecting monthly delivery schedules.” [Transportation & Warehousing]
• “Local, regional and national supply constraints continue to create supply chain complexities and challenges.” [Utilities]
• “Business volume appears to be leveling out based on a month-over-month comparison, although we are up significantly when compared to the same month last year.” [Wholesale Trade]

Services ISM^® Report On Business^® data is seasonally adjusted for the Business Activity, New Orders, Employment and Prices indexes. Manufacturing ISM^® Report On Business^® data is seasonally adjusted for New Orders, Production, Employment and Inventories indexes.

*Number of months moving in current direction.

COMMODITIES REPORTED UP/DOWN IN PRICE, AND IN SHORT SUPPLY

Commodities Up in Price
Batteries; Construction Services; Diesel Fuel (2); Electrical Components (22); Fuel* (2); Gasoline* (2); Janitorial Maintenance Supplies; Labor (24); Labor — Full-Time; Labor — Technology and Web Related; Needles and Syringes; Pallets; and Services.

Commodities Down in Price
Fuel* (4); Gasoline* (4); and Steel Products.

Commodities in Short Supply
Chemicals; Concrete (2); Electronic Components; Janitorial Supplies; Labor; Plastic Products; Semiconductors (2); Transformers (3); and Vehicles (5). 

Note: The number of consecutive months the commodity is listed is indicated after each item. *Indicates both up and down in price.

NOVEMBER 2022 SERVICES INDEX SUMMARIES

Services PMI^®

In November, the Services PMI^® registered 56.5 percent, a 2.1-percentage point increase compared to the October reading of 54.4 percent. The 12-month average is 57.2 percent, reflecting consistently strong growth in the services sector, which has expanded for 30 consecutive months. A reading above 50 percent indicates the services sector economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates it is generally contracting.

A Services PMI^® above 50.1 percent, over time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy. Therefore, the November Services PMI^® indicates the overall economy has followed the same path as the services sector: expansion for 30 straight months following two months of contraction and a preceding period of 122 months of growth. Nieves says, “The past relationship between the Services PMI^® and the overall economy indicates that the Services PMI^® for November (56.5 percent) corresponds to a 2.3-percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis.”

SERVICES PMI^® HISTORY

Business Activity

ISM^®‘s Business Activity Index registered 64.7 percent in November, a notable increase of 9 percentage points from the reading of 55.7 percent in October, indicating growth for the 30th consecutive month. Comments from respondents include: “Gaining more business” and “Demand for our services is increasing.”

The 13 industries reporting an increase in business activity for the month of November — listed in order — are: Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Accommodation & Food Services; Mining; Other Services; Public Administration; Construction; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Health Care & Social Assistance; Information; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Retail Trade; Transportation & Warehousing; and Wholesale Trade. The one industry reporting a decrease in business activity for the month of November is Finance & Insurance.

New Orders

ISM^®‘s New Orders Index registered 56 percent, down 0.5 percentage point from the October reading of 56.5 percent. New orders grew for the 30th consecutive month after two months of contraction and a preceding period of 128 months of expansion. Comments from respondents include: “New customers added as our business continues to grow” and “Starting new fiscal year; ramping up projects.”

Twelve industries reported growth of new orders in November, in the following order: Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Other Services; Retail Trade; Accommodation & Food Services; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Mining; Public Administration; Transportation & Warehousing; Health Care & Social Assistance; Construction; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; and Utilities. The four industries reporting a decrease in new orders in November are: Management of Companies & Support Services; Wholesale Trade; Information; and Educational Services.

Employment

Employment activity in the services sector grew in November after contracting in October. ISM^®‘s Employment Index registered 51.5 percent, up 2.4 percentage points from the October reading of 49.1 percent. Comments from respondents include: “Slow improvement in staffing levels” and “Recruitment fairs have helped enable open positions to be filled.”

The nine industries reporting an increase in employment in November — listed in order — are: Mining; Retail Trade; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Construction; Public Administration; Health Care & Social Assistance; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; and Utilities. The six industries reporting a decrease in employment in November — listed in order — are: Management of Companies & Support Services; Transportation & Warehousing; Accommodation & Food Services; Information; Educational Services; and Finance & Insurance.

Supplier Deliveries

The Supplier Deliveries Index registered 53.8 percent, down 2.4 percentage points from the 56.2 percent recorded in October. A reading above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries, while a reading below 50 percent indicates faster deliveries. Comments from respondents include: “Supply chain issues easing” and “Reduced production times and transit times.”

The nine industries reporting slower deliveries in November — listed in order — are: Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Mining; Health Care & Social Assistance; Construction; Finance & Insurance; Educational Services; Other Services; Transportation & Warehousing; and Utilities. The six industries reporting faster supplier deliveries for the month of November — listed in order — are: Wholesale Trade; Retail Trade; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Accommodation & Food Services; Information; and Professional, Scientific & Technical Services.

Inventories

The Inventories Index contracted in November for the sixth consecutive month after four straight months of growth preceded by an eight-month period of contraction. The reading of 47.9 percent was a 0.7-percentage point increase from the 47.2 percent reported in October. Of the total respondents in November, 34 percent indicated they do not have inventories or do not measure them. Comments from respondents include: “Trying to unload back stock purchased during supplier shortage period” and “Supply chain is improving; production and services are up.” Also: “No need to stock up more than needed, as inventory is being used faster than expected.”

The nine industries reporting an increase in inventories in November — listed in order — are: Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Public Administration; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Utilities; Information; Wholesale Trade; Educational Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; and Professional, Scientific & Technical Services. The six industries reporting a decrease in inventories in November — listed in order — are: Accommodation & Food Services; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Management of Companies & Support Services; Mining; Retail Trade; and Construction.

Prices

Prices paid by services organizations for materials and services increased in November for the 66th consecutive month, with the index registering 70 percent, 0.7 percentage point lower than the 70.7 percent recorded in October. The Prices Index continues to indicate movement toward equilibrium, with a fifth consecutive reading near or below 70 percent, following nine straight months of readings above 80 percent.

Sixteen services industries reported an increase in prices paid during the month of November, in the following order: Accommodation & Food Services; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Health Care & Social Assistance; Management of Companies & Support Services; Public Administration; Educational Services; Utilities; Information; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Other Services; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Mining; Retail Trade; Transportation & Warehousing; and Finance & Insurance. The two industries reporting prices unchanged in the month of November are: Wholesale Trade; and Construction. No industry reported a decrease in prices for November.

NOTE: Commodities reported as up in price and down in price are listed in the commodities section of this report.

Backlog of Orders

The ISM^® Services Backlog of Orders Index grew in November for the 23rd consecutive month. The index registered 51.8 percent, 0.4 percentage point lower than the October reading of 52.2 percent. Of the total respondents in November, 32 percent indicated they do not measure backlog of orders. Respondent comments include: “Supply chain transportation improvements” and “Slightly more capacity in the supply chain.”

The eight industries reporting an increase in order backlogs in November — listed in order — are: Accommodation & Food Services; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Information; Other Services; Educational Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; Construction; and Professional, Scientific & Technical Services. The five industries reporting a decrease in order backlogs in November are: Management of Companies & Support Services; Finance & Insurance; Public Administration; Wholesale Trade; and Utilities.

New Export Orders

Orders and requests for services and other non-manufacturing activities to be provided outside of the U.S. by domestically based companies contracted in November for the second consecutive month after an eight-month period of growth. The New Export Orders Index registered 38.4 percent, its lowest reading since April 2020 (36.3 percent) and a 9.3-percentage point decrease from the 47.7 percent reported in October. Of the total respondents in November, 78 percent indicated they do not perform, or do not separately measure, orders for work outside of the U.S.

The three industries reporting an increase in new export orders in November are: Mining; Utilities; and Wholesale Trade. The eight industries reporting a decrease in new export orders in November — listed in order — are: Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Management of Companies & Support Services; Construction; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Other Services; Accommodation & Food Services; Educational Services; and Transportation & Warehousing. Seven industries indicated no change in new export orders in November.

Imports

The Imports Index grew for the third consecutive month in November after three previous months of contraction, registering 59.5 percent, up 9.1 percentage points from October’s reading of 50.4 percent. Seventy-five percent of respondents reported that they do not use, or do not track the use of, imported materials.

The six industries reporting an increase in imports for the month of November — listed in order — are: Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Information; Retail Trade; Construction; Wholesale Trade; and Utilities. The five industries that reported a decrease in imports in November are: Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Accommodation & Food Services; Educational Services; and Health Care & Social Assistance. Seven industries reported no change in imports in November.

Inventory Sentiment

The ISM^® Services Inventory Sentiment Index contracted in November for the fourth straight month and the 18th time in the last 20 months. The index registered 44.2 percent, a 2.2-percentage point decrease from October’s figure of 46.4 percent. This reading indicates that respondents feel their inventories are too low when correlated to business activity levels.

The eight industries reporting sentiment that their inventories were too high in November — listed in order — are: Accommodation & Food Services; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Wholesale Trade; Retail Trade; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Construction; Health Care & Social Assistance; and Utilities. The five industries reporting a feeling that their inventories were too low in November are: Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Other Services; Management of Companies & Support Services; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; and Educational Services.

About This Report

DO NOT CONFUSE THIS NATIONAL REPORT with the various regional purchasing reports released across the country. The national report’s information reflects the entire U.S., while the regional reports contain primarily regional data from their local vicinities. Also, the information in the regional reports is not used in calculating the results of the national report. The information compiled in this report is for the month of November 2022.

The data presented herein is obtained from a survey of supply executives in the services sector based on information they have collected within their respective organizations. ISM^® makes no representation, other than that stated within this release, regarding the individual company data collection procedures. The data should be compared to all other economic data sources when used in decision-making.

Data and Method of Presentation

The Services ISM^® Report On Business^® (formerly the Non-Manufacturing ISM^® Report On Business^®) is based on data compiled from purchasing and supply executives nationwide. Membership of the Services Business Survey Committee (formerly Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee) is diversified by NAICS, based on each industry’s contribution to gross domestic product (GDP). The Services Business Survey Committee responses are divided into the following NAICS code categories: Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Mining; Utilities; Construction; Wholesale Trade; Retail Trade; Transportation & Warehousing; Information; Finance & Insurance; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Management of Companies & Support Services; Educational Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Accommodation & Food Services; Public Administration; and Other Services (services such as Equipment & Machinery Repairing; Promoting or Administering Religious Activities; Grantmaking; Advocacy; and Providing Dry-Cleaning & Laundry Services, Personal Care Services, Death Care Services, Pet Care Services, Photofinishing Services, Temporary Parking Services, and Dating Services). The data are weighted based on each industry’s contribution to GDP. According to the BEA estimates for 2020 GDP (released December 22, 2021), the six largest services sectors are: Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Government; Professional, Scientific, & Technical Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; Information; and Finance & Insurance. Beginning in February 2020 with January 2020 data, computation of the indexes is accomplished utilizing unrounded numbers.

Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month. For each of the indicators measured (Business Activity, New Orders, Backlog of Orders, New Export Orders, Inventory Change, Inventory Sentiment, Imports, Prices, Employment and Supplier Deliveries), this report shows the percentage reporting each response and the diffusion index. Responses represent raw data and are never changed. Data is seasonally adjusted for Business Activity, New Orders, Prices and Employment. All seasonal adjustment factors are subject annually to relatively minor changes when conditions warrant them. The remaining indexes have not indicated significant seasonality.

The Services PMI^® is a composite index based on the diffusion indexes for four of the indicators with equal weights: Business Activity (seasonally adjusted), New Orders (seasonally adjusted), Employment (seasonally adjusted) and Supplier Deliveries. Diffusion indexes have the properties of leading indicators and are convenient summary measures showing the prevailing direction of change and the scope of change. An index reading above 50 percent indicates that the services economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally declining. Supplier Deliveries is an exception. A Supplier Deliveries Index above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries and below 50 percent indicates faster deliveries.

A Services PMI^® above 50.1 percent, over time, indicates that the overall economy, or gross domestic product (GDP), is generally expanding; below 50.1 percent, it is generally declining. The distance from 50 percent or 50.1 percent is indicative of the strength of the expansion or decline.

The Services ISM^® Report On Business^® survey is sent out to Services Business Survey Committee respondents the first part of each month. Respondents are asked to ONLY report on U.S. operations for the current month. ISM^® receives survey responses throughout most of any given month, with the majority of respondents generally waiting until late in the month to submit responses to give the most accurate picture of current business activity. ISM^® then compiles the report for release on the third business day of the following month.

The industries reporting growth, as indicated in the Services ISM^® Report On Business^® monthly report, are listed in the order of most growth to least growth. For the industries reporting contraction or decreases, those are listed in the order of the highest level of contraction/decrease to the least level of contraction/decrease.

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About Institute for Supply Management^®

Institute for Supply Management^® (ISM^®) serves supply management professionals in more than 90 countries. Its 50,000 members around the world manage about US$1 trillion in corporate and government supply chain procurement annually. Founded in 1915 as the first supply management institute in the world, ISM is committed to advancing the practice of supply management to drive value and competitive advantage for its members, contributing to a prosperous and sustainable world. ISM leads the profession through the ISM^® Report On Business^®, its highly regarded certification programs and the ISM^® Advance^™ Digital Platform. This report has been issued by the association since 1931, except for a four-year interruption during World War II.

The full text version of the Services ISM^® Report On Business^® is posted on ISM^®‘s website at www.ismrob.org on the third business day* of every month after 10:00 a.m. ET.

The next Services ISM^® Report On Business^® featuring December 2022 data will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET on Friday, January 6, 2023.

*Unless the New York Stock Exchange is closed.

SOURCE Institute for Supply Management

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