The new car market is also affected by expensive times and tax increases. The National Association of Car Importers’ forecast for 2023 estimates new car sales of 140,000 cars.
– The uncertainty is abnormally high, says Erik Andresen, director of the Bilimportørenes Landsforening (BIL).
At the last board meeting of the year, BIL’s board discussed the market outlook for 2023. The car industry is also aware of the economic situation, and BIL’s forecast predicts a weaker 2023.
– Our recent forecast is for new car sales of around 140,000 cars and van sales of around 32,000, says Andresen.
Many uncertainties With the introduction of both VAT on electric cars for purchase amounts over NOK 500,000 together with a new weight tax, all new cars will become more expensive in 2023. This coincides with a far more demanding economic situation for most people, with interest rate increases, high electricity prices and high price growth too many necessary goods. In addition, the delivery time is still abnormally long for many new cars.
-For the vast majority of families, buying a car is one of the biggest investments they make. It is clear that both the economic situation and the tax increases significantly affect the car industry. We fear that many people will have to postpone new car purchases, says Andresen.
Busy before the tax increases While 2021 was a record year for new car sales, with a total of 176,276 new passenger cars, 2022 has been more moderate, due to the delivery challenges. BIL’s 2022 forecast from June of 150,000 passenger cars and 28,000 vans does not seem to be very far from reality by the end of the year. The run-up to 2022 will be extra busy.
-Introduction of VAT and weight tax on electric cars from 2023 means that it is now about getting as many new cars as possible to the customers before the New Year. On many cars, there will be a big price difference from December to January, says Andresen.
Large order banks At the same time, the large order reserves with cars sold in 2022, but which will not be delivered until 2023, will affect the overall market.
-In 2023, more cars will probably be delivered than sold. A decline in new contracts is expected. But our members still have large back orders, and many cars are therefore expected to be delivered in the first quarter of next year, says Andresen.
Towards new electric car records With the 2025 target ever closer, there is great excitement attached to the development of the powertrain mix. The board of BIL is confident that the growth in market share for electric cars will continue, and considers the 2025 target to be well within reach.
-Our forecast is an electric car share for passenger cars of 85-90 percent in 2023. We do not believe that the VAT phase-in or the weight tax will make consumers choose diesel or petrol instead of an electric car, but we are concerned that the economic situation may more people to drive older cars with higher emissions for longer. The green shift on the roads is not only about the proportion of electric cars in new car sales, but also about increasing the proportion of kilometers driven with zero emissions, says Andresen.
– For vans, the transition to electricity is slower. Here we expect an electricity share of 35 percent.
The National Association of Car Importers forecast for 2023:
Total passenger car market: 140,000, electric share 85 – 90 per cent
Total van market: 32,000, electric share 35 per cent
Total truck market: 4,500, electricity share 8 per cent
Total market bus: 700-800