TrueCar Releases Analysis of February Industry Sales

Electric vehicle leases spike in response to government tax credits

SANTA MONICA, Calif., Feb. 24, 2023 /PRNewswire/ — TrueCar, Inc. (NASDAQ: TRUE), the easiest, most efficient and transparent online destination for buying and selling new and used vehicles, expects total new vehicle industry sales to reach 1,117,400 units in February 2023, up 5.6% from a year ago and up 4.8% from January 2023, when adjusted for the same number of selling days. This month’s seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total light vehicle industry sales is an estimated 14.5 million, down 3.8% from February 2022. Excluding fleet sales, TrueCar expects U.S. retail deliveries of new cars and light trucks to be 928,386 units, up 1% from a year ago and up almost 3% from January 2023.

“Consumers and manufacturers alike are employing strategies to address affordability challenges,” said Zack Krelle, Industry Analyst at TrueCar. “Fleet sales are boosting volume and manufacturers are intensifying their incentive spend to offset ballooning interest rates and lingering higher prices. Many consumers are considering a used alternative or front-loading their purchase with higher down payments to reduce outstanding interest.”

“Over the last month we’ve seen OEMs respond to Tesla’s steep price reductions by increasing traditional incentives, keeping in line with how OEMs typically act to promote vehicles and increase demand,” said Justin Colon, Vice President of OEM Solutions at TrueCar. “We’re also seeing an abrupt surge in electric vehicle leases for vehicles and consumers that had previously been excluded from tax credit eligibility.”

Additional February Industry Insights (from TrueCar):

  • Total sales for February 2023 are expected to be up 5.6% from a year ago and up 4.8% from January 2023 when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
  • Fleet sales for February 2023 are expected to be up 33% from a year ago and up 16% from January 2023 when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
  • Average transaction price for new vehicles is projected to be up 5% from a year ago and about even with January 2023.
  • Total SAAR is expected to be down 3.8% from a year ago at about 14.5 million units.
  • Used vehicle sales for February 2023 are expected to reach 2.8 million, down 8% from a year ago and up 5% from January 2023. 
  • The average interest rate on new vehicles is 6.9% compared to January 2023 at 7% and the average interest rate on used vehicles is 10.5%.
  • The average loan term on a new vehicle for February 2023 is 69 months and the average loan term on a used vehicle is about 70 months.

Total Unit Sales



Manufacturer

Feb 2023 Forecast

Feb 2022 Actual

Jan 2023 Actual

YoY % Change

YoY % Change

(Daily Selling Rate)

MoM % Change

MoM % Change

(Daily Selling Rate)

BMW

24,611

26,074

25,571

-5.6 %

-5.6 %

-3.8 %

-3.8 %

Daimler

21,874

19,237

23,560

13.7 %

13.7 %

-7.2 %

-7.2 %

Ford

162,296

128,229

145,070

26.6 %

26.6 %

11.9 %

11.9 %

GM

184,632

161,705

183,090

14.2 %

14.2 %

0.8 %

0.8 %

Honda

87,526

84,394

84,514

3.7 %

3.7 %

3.6 %

3.6 %

Hyundai

59,997

55,906

55,906

7.3 %

7.3 %

7.3 %

7.3 %

Kia

56,142

49,182

51,983

14.2 %

14.2 %

8.0 %

8.0 %

Nissan

63,622

61,674

60,251

3.2 %

3.2 %

5.6 %

5.6 %

Stellantis

111,261

136,580

108,538

-18.5 %

-18.5 %

2.5 %

2.5 %

Subaru

44,877

44,866

44,373

0.0 %

0.0 %

1.1 %

1.1 %

Tesla

51,478

42,742

53,875

20.4 %

20.4 %

-4.4 %

-4.4 %

Toyota

154,961

160,645

136,759

-3.5 %

-3.5 %

13.3 %

13.3 %

Volkswagen Group

44,912

36,355

44,086

23.5 %

23.5 %

1.9 %

1.9 %

Industry

1,117,400

1,058,243

1,065,720

5.6 %

5.6 %

4.8 %

4.8 %

Retail Unit Sales



Manufacturer

Feb 2023 Forecast

Feb 2022 Actual

Jan 2023 Actual

YoY % Change

YoY % Change

(Daily Selling Rate)

MoM % Change

MoM % Change

(Daily Selling Rate)

BMW

22,155

25,575

23,917

-13.4 %

-13.4 %

-7.4 %

-7.4 %

Daimler

19,520

18,355

22,304

6.3 %

6.3 %

-12.5 %

-12.5 %

Ford

116,666

95,896

102,232

21.7 %

21.7 %

14.1 %

14.1 %

GM

139,763

129,069

151,662

8.3 %

8.3 %

-7.8 %

-7.8 %

Honda

85,921

81,318

83,130

5.7 %

5.7 %

3.4 %

3.4 %

Hyundai

56,284

55,344

48,421

1.7 %

1.7 %

16.2 %

16.2 %

Kia

52,968

44,264

48,580

19.7 %

19.7 %

9.0 %

9.0 %

Nissan

54,975

49,519

50,111

11.0 %

11.0 %

9.7 %

9.7 %

Stellantis

73,159

108,737

76,215

-32.7 %

-32.7 %

-4.0 %

-4.0 %

Subaru

43,419

43,459

42,123

-0.1 %

-0.1 %

3.1 %

3.1 %

Tesla

45,066

42,291

46,960

6.6 %

6.6 %

-4.0 %

-4.0 %

Toyota

137,684

143,332

126,423

-3.9 %

-3.9 %

8.9 %

8.9 %

Volkswagen Group

39,257

35,270

40,939

11.3 %

11.3 %

-4.1 %

-4.1 %

Industry

928,386

918,918

903,204

1.0 %

1.0 %

2.8 %

2.8 %

Fleet Unit Sales



Manufacturer

Feb 2023 Forecast

Feb 2022 Actual

Jan 2023 Actual

YoY % Change

YoY % Change

(Daily Selling Rate)

MoM % Change

MoM % Change

(Daily Selling Rate)

BMW

2,456

499

1,654

391.9 %

391.9 %

48.5 %

48.5 %

Daimler

2,354

882

1,256

167.0 %

167.0 %

87.5 %

87.5 %

Ford

45,630

32,333

42,838

41.1 %

41.1 %

6.5 %

6.5 %

GM

44,869

32,636

31,428

37.5 %

37.5 %

42.8 %

42.8 %

Honda

1,605

3,076

1,384

-47.8 %

-47.8 %

15.9 %

15.9 %

Hyundai

3,713

562

7,485

561.2 %

561.2 %

-50.4 %

-50.4 %

Kia

3,174

4,918

3,403

-35.5 %

-35.5 %

-6.7 %

-6.7 %

Nissan

8,647

12,155

10,140

-28.9 %

-28.9 %

-14.7 %

-14.7 %

Stellantis

38,102

27,843

32,323

36.8 %

36.8 %

17.9 %

17.9 %

Subaru

1,458

1,407

2,250

3.6 %

3.6 %

-35.2 %

-35.2 %

Tesla

6,412

451

6,915

1320.6 %

1320.6 %

-7.3 %

-7.3 %

Toyota

17,277

17,313

10,336

-0.2 %

-0.2 %

67.1 %

67.1 %

Volkswagen Group

5,655

1,085

3,147

421.4 %

421.4 %

79.7 %

79.7 %

Industry

185,048

139,127

158,974

33.0 %

33.0 %

16.4 %

16.4 %

Fleet Penetration

Manufacturer

Feb 2023 Forecast

Feb 2022 Actual

Jan 2023 Actual

YoY % Change

MoM % Change

BMW

10.0 %

1.9 %

6.5 %

421.1 %

54.3 %

Daimler

10.8 %

4.6 %

5.3 %

134.8 %

101.9 %

Ford

28.1 %

25.2 %

29.5 %

11.5 %

-4.8 %

GM

24.3 %

20.2 %

17.2 %

20.4 %

41.6 %

Honda

1.8 %

3.6 %

1.6 %

-49.7 %

12.0 %

Hyundai

6.2 %

1.0 %

13.4 %

516.1 %

-53.8 %

Kia

5.7 %

10.0 %

6.5 %

-43.5 %

-13.6 %

Nissan

13.6 %

19.7 %

16.8 %

-31.0 %

-19.2 %

Stellantis

34.2 %

20.4 %

29.8 %

68.0 %

15.0 %

Subaru

3.2 %

3.1 %

5.1 %

3.6 %

-35.9 %

Tesla

12.5 %

1.1 %

12.8 %

1079.5 %

-3.0 %

Toyota

11.1 %

10.8 %

7.6 %

3.5 %

47.5 %

Volkswagen Group

12.6 %

3.0 %

7.1 %

322.0 %

76.4 %

Industry

16.6 %

13.1 %

14.9 %

26.0 %

11.0 %

Total Market Share

Manufacturer

Feb 2023 Forecast

Feb 2022 Actual

Jan 2023 Actual

BMW

2.2 %

2.5 %

2.4 %

Daimler

2.0 %

1.8 %

2.2 %

Ford

14.5 %

12.1 %

13.6 %

GM

16.5 %

15.3 %

17.2 %

Honda

7.8 %

8.0 %

7.9 %

Hyundai

5.4 %

5.3 %

5.2 %

Kia

5.0 %

4.6 %

4.9 %

Nissan

5.7 %

5.8 %

5.7 %

Stellantis

10.0 %

12.9 %

10.2 %

Subaru

4.0 %

4.2 %

4.2 %

Tesla

4.6 %

4.0 %

5.1 %

Toyota

13.9 %

15.2 %

12.8 %

Volkswagen Group

4.0 %

3.4 %

4.1 %


95.6 %

95.2 %

95.5 %

Retail Market Share

Manufacturer

Feb 2023 Forecast

Feb 2022 Actual

Jan 2023 Actual

BMW

2.4 %

2.8 %

2.6 %

Daimler

2.1 %

2.0 %

2.5 %

Ford

12.6 %

10.4 %

11.3 %

GM

15.1 %

14.0 %

16.8 %

Honda

9.3 %

8.8 %

9.2 %

Hyundai

6.1 %

6.0 %

5.4 %

Kia

5.7 %

4.8 %

5.4 %

Nissan

5.9 %

5.4 %

5.5 %

Stellantis

7.9 %

11.8 %

8.4 %

Subaru

4.7 %

4.7 %

4.7 %

Tesla

4.9 %

4.6 %

5.2 %

Toyota

14.8 %

15.6 %

14.0 %

Volkswagen Group

4.2 %

3.8 %

4.5 %


95.5 %

94.9 %

95.6 %

ATP



Manufacturer

Feb 2023 Forecast

Feb 2022 Actual

Jan 2023 Actual

YOY

MOM

BMW

$69,154

$62,124

$68,588

11.3 %

0.8 %

Daimler

$77,646

$74,332

$77,908

4.5 %

-0.3 %

Ford

$54,790

$48,605

$55,288

12.7 %

-0.9 %

GM

$51,523

$51,406

$51,789

0.2 %

-0.5 %

Honda

$37,841

$37,270

$37,080

1.5 %

2.1 %

Hyundai

$37,830

$37,550

$37,393

0.7 %

1.2 %

Kia

$34,631

$34,475

$34,324

0.5 %

0.9 %

Nissan

$38,779

$33,794

$37,671

14.8 %

2.9 %

Stellantis

$55,580

$52,848

$55,172

5.2 %

0.7 %

Subaru

$33,950

$34,202

$34,879

-0.7 %

-2.7 %

Toyota

$42,711

$40,902

$41,895

4.4 %

1.9 %

Volkswagen Group

$48,536

$47,916

$49,193

1.3 %

-1.3 %

Industry

$45,645

$43,382

$45,576

5.2 %

0.2 %


$2,263


$69



Incentives



Manufacturer

Feb 2023 Forecast

Feb 2022 Actual

Jan 2023 Actual

YOY

MOM

BMW

$2,376

$2,582

$2,571

-7.9 %

-7.6 %

Daimler

$2,044

$2,243

$1,842

-8.9 %

11.0 %

Ford

$1,283

$1,737

$1,121

-26.2 %

14.4 %

GM

$1,887

$1,963

$1,964

-3.8 %

-3.9 %

Honda

$1,189

$1,159

$1,335

2.7 %

-10.9 %

Hyundai

$875

$950

$856

-7.9 %

2.2 %

Kia

$684

$1,239

$688

-44.8 %

-0.5 %

Nissan

$1,994

$1,789

$1,855

11.5 %

7.5 %

Stellantis

$2,246

$2,570

$2,046

-12.6 %

9.7 %

Subaru

$983

$856

$917

14.8 %

7.2 %

Toyota

$676

$1,058

$683

-36.1 %

-1.0 %

Volkswagen Group

$1,969

$1,874

$1,843

5.0 %

6.8 %

Industry

$1,522

$1,657

$1,396

-8.1 %

9.0 %


-$135


$126



Incentives as % of ATP



Manufacturer

Feb 2023 Forecast

Feb 2022 Actual

Jan 2023 Actual

YOY

MOM

BMW

3.4 %

4.2 %

3.7 %

-17.3 %

-8.3 %

Daimler

2.6 %

3.0 %

2.4 %

-12.8 %

11.3 %

Ford

2.3 %

3.6 %

2.0 %

-34.5 %

15.4 %

GM

3.7 %

3.8 %

3.8 %

-4.1 %

-3.4 %

Honda

3.1 %

3.1 %

3.6 %

1.1 %

-12.7 %

Hyundai

2.3 %

2.5 %

2.3 %

-8.5 %

1.0 %

Kia

2.0 %

3.6 %

2.0 %

-45.0 %

-1.4 %

Nissan

5.1 %

5.3 %

4.9 %

-2.9 %

4.4 %

Stellantis

4.0 %

4.9 %

3.7 %

-16.9 %

8.9 %

Subaru

2.9 %

2.5 %

2.6 %

15.7 %

10.1 %

Toyota

1.6 %

2.6 %

1.6 %

-38.8 %

-2.9 %

Volkswagen Group

4.1 %

3.9 %

3.7 %

3.7 %

8.3 %

Industry

3.3 %

3.8 %

3.1 %

-12.7 %

8.9 %

Revenue



Manufacturer

Feb 2023 Forecast

Feb 2022 Actual

Jan 2023 Actual

YOY

MOM

Industry

$51,003,836,774

$45,908,429,294

$48,570,898,969

11.1 %

5.0 %

(Note: This industry insight is based solely on TrueCar, Inc.’s analysis of domestic industry sales trends and conditions and is not a projection of TrueCar, Inc.’s operations.)

About TrueCar
TrueCar is a leading automotive digital marketplace that lets auto buyers and sellers connect to our nationwide network of Certified Dealers. With access to an expansive inventory provided by our Certified Dealers, we are building the industry’s most personalized and efficient auto shopping experience as we seek to bring more of the process online. Consumers who visit our marketplace will find a suite of vehicle discovery tools, price ratings and market context on new, used and Certified Pre-Owned vehicles. When they are ready, shoppers in TrueCar’s marketplace can connect with a Certified Dealer in our network, who shares our belief that truth, transparency and fairness are the foundation of a great auto shopping experience. As part of our marketplace, TrueCar powers auto-buying programs for over 250 leading brands, including AARP, Sam’s Club, Navy Federal Credit Union and American Express.

For more information, please visit www.truecar.com, and follow us on LinkedInFacebook or Twitter

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