ISM® REPORTS ECONOMIC IMPROVEMENT TO CONTINUE THROUGH 2023

Manufacturing Expected to Expand in 2023 at a Slower Pace than Projected in December 2022; Revenue to Increase 1.7%; Capital Expenditures to Increase 0.4%; Capacity Utilization Currently at 82%; Services is Expected to Expand in 2023 at a Slightly Slower Pace than Projected in December 2022; Revenue to Increase 2.7%; Capital Expenditures to Increase 4.0%; Capacity Utilization Currently at 91.0%

TEMPE, Ariz., May 8, 2023 /PRNewswire/ — The U.S. economy will continue to softly expand for the rest of 2023, say the nation’s purchasing and supply executives in the Spring 2023 Semiannual Economic Forecast. Expectations for the remainder of 2023 are similar to those expressed in December 2022, despite continued inflation and geopolitical uncertainty.

These projections are part of the forecast issued by the Institute for Supply Management^® (ISM^®) Business Survey Committees. The forecast was presented today by Timothy R. Fiore, CPSM, C.P.M., Chair of the ISM Manufacturing Business Survey Committee, and Anthony S. Nieves, CPSM, C.P.M., A.P.P., CFPM, Chair of the ISM Services Business Survey Committee.

Manufacturing Summary
Revenue for 2023 is expected to increase, on average, by 1.7 percent. This is 3.8 percentage points lower than the December 2022 forecast of 5.5 percent, and 7.6 percentage points lower than the 9.3-percent year-over-year increase reported for 2022. Forty percent of respondents say that revenues for 2023 will increase, on average, 11.6 percent compared to 2022. Twenty percent say revenues will decrease (14.6 percent, on average), and 40 percent indicate no change. With an operating rate of 82 percent and projected increases in capital expenditures (0.4 percent), prices paid for raw materials (2.3 percent) and employment (0.5 percent) by the end of 2023, manufacturing continues its comeback from the turmoil that began in 2020 and is expected to continue through this year. “With 10 manufacturing sector industries expecting revenue growth in 2023 and 11 industries expecting employment growth in 2023, panelists forecast that recovery will continue the rest of the year, albeit somewhat softer than originally expected. Sentiment in each sector was generally consistent with industry performance reports in the April 2023 Manufacturing ISM^® Report On Business^®, as well as the fall Semiannual Economic Forecast conducted in December,” says Fiore.

Ten of 18 industries report projected revenue increases for the rest of 2023, listed in order: Primary Metals; Printing & Related Support Activities; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Transportation Equipment; Machinery; Textile Mills; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; and Petroleum & Coal Products.

Services Summary
Respondents expect a 2.7-percent net increase in overall revenues, which is 0.4 percentage point lower than the 3.1-percent increase forecast in December 2022. Thirty-eight percent of respondents say that revenues for 2023 will increase, on average, 10.2 percent compared to 2022. Meanwhile, 11 percent expect their revenues to decrease (11.1 percent, on average), and 51 percent indicate no change. “The services sector will continue to grow for the rest of 2023. Services companies are currently operating at 91 percent of normal capacity. Supply managers indicate that prices are expected to increase 4.3 percent over the year, reflecting increasing inflation. Employment is projected to increase 0.7 percent. Fourteen industries forecast increased revenues, down from the 14 industries that predicted increases in December 2022,” says Nieves.

Fourteen of 18 industries expect revenue increases in 2023, listed in order: Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Retail Trade; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Other Services; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Information; Transportation & Warehousing; Management of Companies & Support Services; Public Administration; Finance & Insurance; Accommodation & Food Services; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Educational Services; and Health Care & Social Assistance.

OPERATING RATE

Manufacturing
Purchasing and supply executives report that their companies are operating, on average, at 82 percent of normal capacity, 6.4 percentage points lower than the figure reported in December 2022. The 11 industries reporting operating capacity levels above the average rate of 82 percent — listed in order — are: Petroleum & Coal Products; Paper Products; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Wood Products; Machinery; Computer & Electronic Products; Primary Metals; Chemical Products; Transportation Equipment; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; and Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components.

Services

Organizations are operating, on average, at 91 percent of normal capacity, according to Business Survey Committee respondents. This is 1.1 percentage points higher compared to December 2022. The 10 industries operating at capacity levels above the average rate of 91 percent — listed in order — are: Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Other Services; Educational Services; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Utilities; Finance & Insurance; Management of Companies & Support Services; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Public Administration; and Information.

PRODUCTION CAPACITY

Manufacturing

Production capacity is expected to increase 0.4 percentage point in 2023; in December, panelists reported an increase of 6.7 percent for 2022 and projected an increase of 5.3 percent this year. Twenty-six percent of respondents expect capacity increase of, on average, 12.3 percent; 14 percent expect decreases of, on average, 18.7 percent; and 60 percent expect no change. The 10 industries expecting production capacity increases for 2023 — listed in order — are: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Transportation Equipment; Machinery; Plastics & Rubber Products; Primary Metals; Paper Products; and Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components.

Services
The capacity to produce products or provide services in the services sector is expected to increase 2 percent in 2023. This compares to an increase of 3.9 percent reported for 2022 and a December projection of a 3.4-percent increase for this year. Seventeen percent of services respondents expect their capacity for 2023 to increase, on average, 16.4 percent, and 5 percent foresee capacity decreasing, on average, 16.5 percent. Seventy-eight percent expect no change in capacity. The 11 industries expecting production capacity increases for 2023 — listed in order — are: Retail Trade; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Information; Accommodation & Food Services; Wholesale Trade; Mining; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; Transportation & Warehousing; Management of Companies & Support Services; and Educational Services.  

PREDICTED CAPITAL EXPENDITURES — 2023 vs. 2022

Manufacturing
Survey respondents expect a 0.4-percent point increase in capital expenditures in 2023, lower than the 2.6-percent increase forecast by the panel in December. Twenty-four percent of respondents predict increased (on average, 23.6 percent) capital expenditures in 2023, 20 percent said their capital spending would decrease (on average, 26.7 percent), and 56 percent expect no change. The eight industries expecting capital expenditure increases for 2023 — listed in order — are: Printing & Related Support Activities; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Paper Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; and Computer & Electronic Products.

Services

This year, services purchasing and supply executives expect a capital expenditures increase of 4 percent compared to 2022. The 40 percent of members expecting to spend more predict an average increase of 18.2 percent, 15 percent anticipate an average decrease of 21.2 percent, and 45 percent expect no change in capital expenditures in 2023. The 13 industries expecting an increase in capital expenditures — listed in order — are: Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Utilities; Public Administration; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Transportation & Warehousing; Accommodation & Food Services; Mining; Finance & Insurance; Management of Companies & Support Services; Educational Services; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; and Retail Trade.

PRICES — Changes Between End of 2022 and May 2023

Manufacturing
In the December forecast, respondents predicted an increase of 2.5 percent in prices paid during the first four months of 2023; they report prices increased by 2.3 percent. The 47 percent who say their prices are higher now than at the end of 2022 report an average increase of 8.6 percent, while 23 percent reported lower prices (by 7.7 percent, on average). The remaining 30 percent indicated no change for the period. Fourteen manufacturing industries reported an increase in prices paid for the first part of 2023, listed in order: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Textile Mills; Plastics & Rubber Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Primary Metals; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Transportation Equipment; Machinery; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Furniture & Related Products; and Chemical Products.

Services
Services respondents report that purchases during the first four months of this year cost an average of 5.1 percent more than at the end of 2022. This is 0.3 percentage point less than the 5.4-percent increase predicted in December. Sixty-four percent of services respondents report that prices increased, on average, 8.9 percent; 9 percent report price decreases of, on average, 5.9 percent; and 27 percent indicate no change. Seventeen of 18 industries reported an increase in prices paid in the first part of 2023, listed in order: Public Administration; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Mining; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Utilities; Information; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Wholesale Trade; Health Care & Social Assistance; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Finance & Insurance; Retail Trade; Other Services; Educational Services; Management of Companies & Support Services; Transportation & Warehousing; and Construction.

PRICES — Predicted Changes Between End of 2022 and End of 2023

Manufacturing
Survey respondents expect a year-over-year, net-average prices increase of 1 percent for 2023. With respondents reporting price increases of 2.3 percent through April 2023, prices are projected to ease slightly over the rest of the year. Forty percent of respondents project prices to increase, on average, 7.5 percent for the full year, 24 percent anticipate a decrease (8.2 percent, on average), and 36 percent expect no change. The 10 industries expect price increases for all of 2023, listed in order are: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Transportation Equipment; Printing & Related Support Activities; Computer & Electronic Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Machinery; Petroleum & Coal Products; Textile Mills; and Furniture & Related Products.

Services
This year, services respondents expect prices to increase, on average, 4.3 percent compared to the end of 2022. With respondents reporting an increase of 5.1 percent through April 2023, prices are projected to decrease over the rest of the year. Fifty-four percent of respondents anticipate increases of, on average, 9.3 percent; 11 percent expect decreases of, on average, 6 percent; and 35 percent do not expect prices to change. Seventeen of 18 industries project price increases for all of 2023, listed in order: Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Public Administration; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Mining; Utilities; Wholesale Trade; Health Care & Social Assistance; Information; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Finance & Insurance; Other Services; Educational Services; Management of Companies & Support Services; Transportation & Warehousing; Construction; and Retail Trade.

EMPLOYMENT

Employment – Predicted Changes Between End of 2022 and End of 2023

Manufacturing
ISM’s Manufacturing Business Survey Committee respondents forecast that sector employment in 2023 will increase 0.5 percentage point year over year. Twenty-five percent of respondents expect employment to be, on average, 7.6 percent higher; 15 percent predict employment to decrease, on average, 9 percent; and 60 percent expect employment levels to be unchanged. The 11 industries projecting employment growth during 2023 — listed in order — are: Printing & Related Support Activities; Primary Metals; Fabricated Metal Products; Chemical Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Plastics & Rubber Products; Machinery; Paper Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; and Transportation Equipment.

Services
Sector employment will increase 0.7 percent in 2023, according to the forecast of ISM’s Services Business Survey Committee respondents. For the remaining months of the year, 27 percent expect employment to increase, on average, 6.9 percent; 15 percent anticipate employment to decrease, on average, 7.6 percent; and 58 percent expect no change in employment levels. The 11 industries anticipating increases in employment — listed in order — are: Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Construction; Transportation & Warehousing; Management of Companies & Support Services; Retail Trade; Accommodation & Food Services; Utilities; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Health Care & Social Assistance; and Educational Services.

BUSINESS REVENUES

Business Revenues Comparison — 2023 vs. 2022

Manufacturing
Increased revenues are expected this year, as purchasing and supply management executives predict an overall net increase of 1.7 percent compared to 2022. This is 3.8 percentage points lower than the 5.5-percent increase forecast in December, and 7.6 percentage points lower than the 9.3-percent year-over-year increase reported for 2022. Forty percent of respondents say that revenues for 2023 will increase, on average, 11.6 percent; 20 percent say their revenues will decrease, on average, 14.6 percent; and 40 percent forecast no change. The 10 manufacturing industries expecting increases in revenue in 2023 — listed in order — are: Primary Metals; Printing & Related Support Activities; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Transportation Equipment; Machinery; Textile Mills; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; and Petroleum & Coal Products.

Services
This year, services purchasing and supply management executives predict a net increase of 2.7 percent in sector business revenue compared to 2022. This is 0.4 percentage point lower than the 3.1-percent increase forecast in December, but 0.6 percentage point higher than the 2.1-percent increase reported for 2022. Thirty-eight percent of respondents indicate revenues for 2023 will increase, on average, 10.2 percent; 11 percent say their revenues will decrease, on average, 11.1 percent; and 51 percent expect no change. Fourteen of 18 services industries project revenue increases in 2023, listed in order: Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Retail Trade; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Other Services; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Information; Transportation & Warehousing; Management of Companies & Support Services; Public Administration; Finance & Insurance; Accommodation & Food Services; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Educational Services; and Health Care & Social Assistance.

SPECIAL QUESTION TOPIC No. 1: HIRING WORKERS TO FILL OPEN POSITIONS

We asked the panel, “In the past six months, has your organization had difficulty hiring workers to fill open positions?”

Answer options:

• Yes, we have had difficulty hiring
• No, we have not had difficulty hiring
• Not applicable (we have not had any open positions)
• Not applicable (we are on a hiring freeze)

Respondents indicated:

SPECIAL QUESTION TOPIC No. 2: HIRING DIFFICULTIES

We asked the panel, “If ‘yes,’ what have you done to deal with these difficulties?”

Answer options:

• We raised wages (or used other forms of monetary compensation) to recruit new hires
• We didn’t hire/were not able to hire as many workers as we would have liked
• We didn’t have difficulty hiring because we weren’t trying to hire new workers
• We lowered our hiring standards
• Something else

Respondents indicated:

SPECIAL QUESTION TOPIC No. 3: NO HIRING DIFFICULTIES

We asked the panel, “If you have not had difficulty hiring, why not?”

Answer options:

• We raised wages in order to attract the applicants we needed
• We didn’t have difficulty hiring because we weren’t trying to hire new workers
• The local labor market is not that tight; it was easy to find an ample supply of applicants
• We lowered our hiring standards
• Something else

Respondents indicated:

SPECIAL QUESTION TOPIC No. 4: SUPPLY CHAIN PROBLEMS

We asked the panel, “Do you anticipate supply chain problems for the third quarter/fourth quarter to be better, same or worse?”

Respondents indicated:

SPECIAL QUESTION TOPIC No. 5: CAUSE OF SUPPLY CHAIN DISRUPTIONS

We asked the panel, “Are most of the supply chain disruptions in the manufacturing/services sectors due to foreign developments (for example, microchips or other foreign-sourced supplies) or to domestic developments (such as, port delays or lack of truck drivers or domestically produced supplies like steel or aluminum)?”

Respondents indicated:

SUMMARY

Manufacturing

• Operating rate is 82 percent of normal capacity.
• Production capacity is expected to increase 0.4 percent in 2023.
• Capital expenditures are expected to increase 0.4 percent in 2023.
• Prices paid increased 2.3 percent through April 2023.
• Prices of raw materials are expected to increase a total of 1 percent for all of 2023, indicating an expected decrease of 1.3 percentage points for the rest of the year.
• Manufacturing employment is expected to increase 0.5 percent in 2023.
• Manufacturing revenues are expected to increase 1.7 percent in 2023.
• The manufacturing sector is expected to grow slightly in 2023.

Services

• Operating rate is 91 percent of normal capacity.
• Production capacity is expected to increase 2 percent in 2023.
• Capital expenditures are expected to increase 4 percent in 2023.
• Prices paid increased 5.1 percent through April 2023.
• Prices of raw materials are expected to increase a total of 4.3 percent for all of 2023, indicating expectations of continuing inflation.
• Services employment is expected to increase 0.7 percent in 2023.
• Services revenues are expected to increase 2.7 percent in 2023.
• The services sector is projected to slightly grow in 2023.

About This Report
In addition to the forecast, the Manufacturing ISM^® Report On Business^® is issued monthly on the first business day of each month and is considered by many economists to be the most reliable near-term economic barometer available. It is reviewed regularly by top government agencies and economic business leaders. The report, compiled from responses to questions asked of approximately 900 purchasing and supply executives across the country, tracks industrial production, new orders, inventories, supplier deliveries, employment, buying policies and prices. Manufacturing Business Survey Committee responses are divided into the following NAICS code categories: Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Textile Mills; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Wood Products; Paper Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Petroleum & Coal Products; Chemical Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Primary Metals; Fabricated Metal Products; Machinery; Computer & Electronic Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Transportation Equipment; Furniture & Related Products; and Miscellaneous Manufacturing (including products such as Medical Equipment & Supplies, Jewelry, Sporting Goods, Toys & Office Supplies).

Covering the services sector, ISM^® debuted the Services ISM^® Report On Business^® in June 1998. The Services ISM^® Report On Business^® is released on the third business day of each month and is based on data received from purchasing and supply executives from 18 different Services industries across the country. The Services ISM^® Report On Business^® is diversified by NAICS, based on each industry’s contribution to gross domestic product (GDP). The Services Business Survey Committee responses are divided into the following NAICS code categories: Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Mining; Utilities; Construction; Wholesale Trade; Retail Trade; Transportation & Warehousing; Information; Finance & Insurance; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Management of Companies & Support Services; Educational Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Accommodation & Food Services; Other Services (including Equipment & Machinery Repairing; Promoting or Administering Religious Activities; Grant making; Advocacy; and Providing Dry-Cleaning & Laundry Services, Personal Care Services, Death Care Services, Pet Care Services, Photofinishing Services, Temporary Parking Services, and Dating Services); and Public Administration. The report covers business activity, new orders, backlog of orders, new export orders, inventory change, inventory sentiment, imports, prices, employment, and supplier deliveries.

About Institute for Supply Management^®
Institute for Supply Management^® (ISM^®) serves supply management professionals in more than 90 countries. Its 50,000 members around the world manage about US$1 trillion in corporate and government supply chain procurement annually. Founded in 1915 as the first supply management institute in the world, ISM is committed to advancing the practice of supply management to drive value and competitive advantage for its members, contributing to a prosperous and sustainable world. ISM leads the profession through the ISM Report On Business^®, its highly regarded certification programs and the ISM^® Advance™ Digital Platform. This report has been issued by the association since 1931, except for a four-year interruption during World War II.

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The next Manufacturing ISM^® Report On Business^® featuring the May 2023 data will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET on Thursday, June 1, 2023.

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