Services PMI® at 52.7%; July 2023 Services ISM® Report On Business®

Business Activity Index at 57.1%; New Orders Index at 55%; Employment Index at 50.7%; Supplier Deliveries Index at 48.1%

TEMPE, Ariz., Aug. 3, 2023 /PRNewswire/ — Economic activity in the services sector expanded in July for the seventh consecutive month as the Services PMI^® registered 52.7 percent, say the nation’s purchasing and supply executives in the latest Services ISM^® Report On Business^®. The sector has grown in 37 of the last 38 months, with the lone contraction in December of last year.

The report was issued today by Anthony Nieves, CPSM, C.P.M., A.P.P., CFPM, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management^® (ISM^®) Services Business Survey Committee: “In July, the Services PMI^® registered 52.7 percent, 1.2 percentage points lower than June’s reading of 53.9 percent. The composite index indicated growth in July for the seventh consecutive month after a reading of 49.2 percent in December, which was the first contraction since June 2020 (45.4 percent). The Business Activity Index registered 57.1 percent, a 2.1-percentage point decrease compared to the reading of 59.2 percent in June. The New Orders Index expanded in July for the seventh consecutive month after contracting in December for the first time since May 2020; the figure of 55 percent is 0.5 percentage point lower than the June reading of 55.5 percent.

“The Supplier Deliveries Index registered 48.1 percent, 0.5 percentage point higher than the 47.6 percent recorded in June. In the last six months, the average reading of 47.6 percent (with a low of 45.8 percent in March) reflects the fastest supplier delivery performance since June 2009, when the index registered 46 percent. (Supplier Deliveries is the only ISM^® Report On Business^® index that is inversed; a reading of above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries, which is typical as the economy improves and customer demand increases.)

“The Prices Index was up 2.7 percentage points in July, to 56.8 percent. The Inventories Index expanded in July for the third consecutive month, after one month of contraction preceded by two months of growth and eight months of contraction from June 2022 to January 2023; the reading of 50.4 percent is down 5.5 percentage points from June’s figure of 55.9 percent. The Inventory Sentiment Index (56.6 percent, up 2.6 percentage points from June’s reading of 54 percent) expanded for the third consecutive month after one month of contraction preceded by four months of growth, with a four-month period of contraction before that. The Backlog of Orders Index registered 52.1 percent, an 8.2-percentage point increase compared to the June figure of 43.9.

“Fourteen industries reported growth in July. The Services PMI^®, by being above 50 percent for the seventh month after a single month of contraction and a prior 30-month period of expansion, continues to indicate sustained growth for the sector. The composite index has indicated expansion for all but three of the previous 161 months.”

Nieves continues, “There has been a slight pullback in the rate of growth for the services sector. This is due mostly to the decrease in the rate of growth for business activity, new orders and employment, as well as ongoing faster delivery times. The majority of respondents are cautiously optimistic about business conditions and the overall economy.”

INDUSTRY PERFORMANCE 
The 14 services industries reporting growth in July — listed in order — are: Other Services; Construction; Accommodation & Food Services; Public Administration; Management of Companies & Support Services; Transportation & Warehousing; Utilities; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; Educational Services; Retail Trade; Information; and Wholesale Trade. The four industries reporting a decrease in the month of July are: Mining; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; and Finance & Insurance.

WHAT RESPONDENTS ARE SAYING

• “Pricing in food sectors has come down incrementally, but in very small, almost minute percentages. IT labor pricing is still inflated.” [Accommodation & Food Services]
• “Sales have been steady.” [Construction]
• “Continuing to see improved case volume in 2023, although July and summer months have flattened a bit as usual. Still scratching and clawing to find savings with economic inflationary pressures.” [Health Care & Social Assistance]
• “Business remains steady.” [Information]
• “We are maintaining a cautious approach, although inflation seems to be easing. The overall business environment has stabilized, but tight labor markets are creating ongoing issues.” [Management of Companies & Support Services]
• “Hiring of employees, temporary workers and consultants continues to be slow as companies remain cautious about increasing fixed and variable expenses during uncertain economic times.” [Professional, Scientific & Technical Services]
• “Although capacity in transportation services has improved, there are still some industries with lagging lead times for their products.” [Public Administration]
• “Overall economy is good. Supply chain market is stable. Commodity prices are increasing but at a slower rate. Lead times and deliveries are ideal, and inventories are lower than last quarter. The unemployment rate is at its lowest point in 70 years. Wages continue to grow.” [Retail Trade]
• “We are still having issues with getting certain materials based on chips, though not nearly as imposing as they were a year ago. Lead times from Europe and in general seem to be improving. There are challenges with suppliers who made changes during the pandemic to spread workloads — they are not as responsive, and this affects lead times.” [Transportation & Warehousing]
• “Steady, slower growth.” [Finance & Insurance]
• “High operational expenses continue to put pressure on the business and limit hiring. Supplier costs (are) not coming down as much as expected. Service levels from suppliers continue to improve. Trucking metrics improved.” [Wholesale Trade]

Services ISM^® Report On Business^® data is seasonally adjusted for the Business Activity, New Orders, Employment and Prices indexes. Manufacturing ISM^® Report On Business^® data is seasonally adjusted for New Orders, Production, Employment and Inventories indexes.

*Number of months moving in current direction.

COMMODITIES REPORTED UP/DOWN IN PRICE, AND IN SHORT SUPPLY

Commodities Up in Price
Beef (3); Diesel Fuel*; Electrical Components (30); Gasoline (6); Labor (32); Labor — Construction; Labor — Skilled (6); Lumber (2); Natural Gas; Oriented Strand Board (OSB) (2); and Wood Pallets (3).

Commodities Down in Price
Aluminum; Cheese; Diesel Fuel*; Freight (2); and Fuel.

Commodities in Short Supply
Audiovisual Equipment; Construction Contractors (3); Construction Subcontractors (2); Electrical Components (4); Labor (9); Labor — Construction (6); Labor — Skilled (3); Transformers (11); and Vehicles.

Note: The number of consecutive months the commodity is listed is indicated after each item.

*Indicates both up and down in price.

JULY 2023 SERVICES INDEX SUMMARIES

Services PMI^®
In July, the Services PMI^® registered 52.7 percent, a 1.2-percentage point decrease compared to the June reading of 53.9 percent. A reading above 50 percent indicates the services sector economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates it is generally contracting.

A Services PMI^® above 49.9 percent, over time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy. Therefore, the July Services PMI^® indicates the overall economy is growing for the seventh consecutive month after one month of contraction in December. Nieves says, “The past relationship between the Services PMI^® and the overall economy indicates that the Services PMI^® for July (52.7 percent) corresponds to a 1-percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis.”

SERVICES PMI^® HISTORY

Business Activity
ISM^®‘s Business Activity Index registered 57.1 percent in July, a decrease of 2.1 percentage points from the reading of 59.2 percent in June, indicating growth for the 38th consecutive month. Comments from respondents include: “Business expansion and seasonal gains” and “Customer demand driving increase.”

The 14 industries reporting an increase in business activity for the month of July — listed in order — are: Other Services; Management of Companies & Support Services; Accommodation & Food Services; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Construction; Transportation & Warehousing; Public Administration; Utilities; Wholesale Trade; Information; Educational Services; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Retail Trade; and Finance & Insurance. The three industries reporting a decrease in business activity for the month of July are: Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; and Health Care & Social Assistance.

New Orders
ISM^®‘s New Orders Index registered 55 percent, down 0.5 percentage point from the June reading of 55.5 percent. The index indicated expansion for the seventh consecutive month after contracting in December, ending a string of 30 consecutive months of growth. Comments from respondents include: “New fiscal year spending and preparation for the school year” and “Increased CapEx (capital expenditures) spend.”

The 13 industries reporting an increase in new orders for the month of July — listed in order — are: Other Services; Accommodation & Food Services; Transportation & Warehousing; Management of Companies & Support Services; Public Administration; Construction; Educational Services; Information; Wholesale Trade; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Utilities; Health Care & Social Assistance; and Finance & Insurance. The three industries reporting a decrease in new orders for the month of July are: Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Mining; and Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting.

Employment
Employment activity in the services sector grew in July for the second consecutive month after contracting in May, with three consecutive months of growth before that. The Employment Index registered 50.7 percent, down 2.4 percentage points from the June figure of 53.1 percent. Comments from respondents include: “Not replacing turnover on production teams; matching capacity to lower demand” and “Have a need but cannot recruit fast enough.” Also: “We are hiring but also losing employees to other firms that offer higher compensation.”

The 10 industries reporting an increase in employment in July — listed in order — are: Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Construction; Other Services; Accommodation & Food Services; Public Administration; Utilities; Retail Trade; Health Care & Social Assistance; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; and Wholesale Trade. The five industries reporting a decrease in employment in July are: Finance & Insurance; Educational Services; Mining; Management of Companies & Support Services; and Information.

Supplier Deliveries
The Supplier Deliveries Index registered 48.1 percent, up 0.5 percentage point from the 47.6 percent recorded in June. A reading above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries, while a reading below 50 percent indicates faster deliveries. The July reading indicates supplier deliveries are faster and at a slower rate compared to the previous month. Comments from respondents include: “Backlog at suppliers lower, with measured production and transportation availability” and “Better lead times, less supply constraints.”

The five industries reporting slower deliveries in July are: Health Care & Social Assistance; Construction; Public Administration; Educational Services; and Professional, Scientific & Technical Services. The 10 industries reporting faster supplier deliveries for the month of July — listed in order — are: Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Mining; Wholesale Trade; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Accommodation & Food Services; Information; Retail Trade; Transportation & Warehousing; Finance & Insurance; and Utilities.

Inventories
The Inventories Index grew in July for the third consecutive month after contracting in April. The index indicated four months of growth from February to May 2022 and eight months of contraction from June 2022 to January 2023. The reading of 50.4 percent was a 5.5-percentage point decrease from the 55.9 percent reported in June. Of the total respondents in July, 49 percent indicated they do not have inventories or do not measure them. Comments from respondents include: “Deliberate reductions of stock levels” and “Able to run the business on lower inventory.”

The eight industries reporting an increase in inventories in July — listed in order — are: Mining; Accommodation & Food Services; Finance & Insurance; Utilities; Educational Services; Transportation & Warehousing; Wholesale Trade; and Professional, Scientific & Technical Services. The five industries reporting a decrease in inventories in July are: Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Other Services; Management of Companies & Support Services; Retail Trade; and Health Care & Social Assistance.

Prices
Prices paid by services organizations for materials and services increased in July for the 74th consecutive month. The Prices Index registered 56.8 percent, 2.7 percentage points higher than the 54.1 percent recorded in June, to indicate movement away from equilibrium: The July reading is the 13th in a row near or below 70 percent (with five straight months below 60 percent), following 10 straight months of readings near or above 80 percent.

Fifteen services industries reported an increase in prices paid during the month of July, in the following order: Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Construction; Finance & Insurance; Retail Trade; Public Administration; Health Care & Social Assistance; Educational Services; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Other Services; Utilities; Information; Management of Companies & Support Services; Transportation & Warehousing; Wholesale Trade; and Professional, Scientific & Technical Services. The two industries reporting a decrease in prices for July are: Mining; and Accommodation & Food Services.

NOTE: Commodities reported as up in price and down in price are listed in the commodities section of this report.

Backlog of Orders
The ISM^® Services Backlog of Orders Index grew in July after four consecutive months of contraction and after a previous stretch of 26 months of growth. The index reading of 52.1 percent is 8.2 percentage points higher than the 43.9 percent reported in June. Of the total respondents in July, 44 percent indicated they do not measure backlog of orders. Respondent comments include: “Percentage of on-time deliveries is increasing, but still not at 2019 levels” and “Due to lead times stability and improvement in the overall supply chain, backlogs have significantly improved.”

The eight industries reporting an increase in order backlogs in July — listed in order — are: Educational Services; Information; Transportation & Warehousing; Utilities; Management of Companies & Support Services; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Finance & Insurance; and Health Care & Social Assistance. The five industries reporting a decrease in order backlogs in July are: Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Accommodation & Food Services; Construction; and Mining.

New Export Orders
Orders and requests for services and other non-manufacturing activities to be provided outside of the U.S. by domestically based companies grew for the fourth consecutive month in July. The New Export Orders Index registered 61.1 percent, a 0.4-percentage point decrease from the 61.5 percent reported in June. New export orders contracted in March after two months of expansion. The index indicated contraction from October to December 2022, with eight months (February-September 2022) of growth before that. Of the total respondents in July, 68 percent indicated they do not perform, or do not separately measure, orders for work outside of the U.S.

The eight industries reporting an increase in new export orders in July — listed in order — are: Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Management of Companies & Support Services; Construction; Information; Finance & Insurance; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Transportation & Warehousing; and Wholesale Trade. The only industry reporting a decrease in new export orders in July is Retail Trade. Nine industries reported no change in new export orders in July.

Imports
The Imports Index registered 52.3 in July, down 2.3 percentage points from June’s reading of 54.6 percent. The index has indicated expansion in 9 of the last 11 months, with the only contraction in March. Seventy-seven percent of respondents reported that they do not use, or do not track the use of, imported materials.

The seven industries reporting an increase in imports for the month of July — listed in order — are: Construction; Management of Companies & Support Services; Transportation & Warehousing; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Wholesale Trade; Utilities; and Health Care & Social Assistance. The two industries that reported a decrease in imports in July are: Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; and Accommodation & Food Services. Nine industries reported no change in imports in July.

Inventory Sentiment
The ISM^® Services Inventory Sentiment Index grew for the third consecutive month in July after a contraction in April, preceded by four consecutive months of growth and four months of contraction prior to that. The index registered 56.6 percent, a 2.6-percentage point increase from June’s figure of 54 percent. This reading indicates that respondents feel their inventories are too high when correlated to business activity levels.

The 10 industries reporting sentiment that their inventories were too high in July — listed in order — are: Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Wholesale Trade; Mining; Information; Other Services; Construction; Retail Trade; Health Care & Social Assistance; Transportation & Warehousing; and Utilities. The two industries reporting a feeling that their inventories were too low in July are: Management of Companies & Support Services; and Professional, Scientific & Technical Services.

About This Report
DO NOT CONFUSE THIS NATIONAL REPORT with the various regional purchasing reports released across the country. The national report’s information reflects the entire U.S., while the regional reports contain primarily regional data from their local vicinities. Also, the information in the regional reports is not used in calculating the results of the national report. The information compiled in this report is for the month of July 2023.

The data presented herein is obtained from a survey of supply executives in the services sector based on information they have collected within their respective organizations. ISM^® makes no representation, other than that stated within this release, regarding the individual company data collection procedures. The data should be compared to all other economic data sources when used in decision-making.

Data and Method of Presentation
The Services ISM^® Report On Business^® (formerly the Non-Manufacturing ISM^® Report On Business^®) is based on data compiled from purchasing and supply executives nationwide. Membership of the Services Business Survey Committee (formerly Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee) is diversified by NAICS, based on each industry’s contribution to gross domestic product (GDP). The Services Business Survey Committee responses are divided into the following NAICS code categories: Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Mining; Utilities; Construction; Wholesale Trade; Retail Trade; Transportation & Warehousing; Information; Finance & Insurance; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Management of Companies & Support Services; Educational Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Accommodation & Food Services; Public Administration; and Other Services (services such as Equipment & Machinery Repairing; Promoting or Administering Religious Activities; Grantmaking; Advocacy; and Providing Dry-Cleaning & Laundry Services, Personal Care Services, Death Care Services, Pet Care Services, Photofinishing Services, Temporary Parking Services, and Dating Services). The data are weighted based on each industry’s contribution to GDP. According to the BEA estimates for 2021 GDP (released December 22, 2022), the six largest services sectors are: Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Government; Professional, Scientific, & Technical Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; Information; and Finance & Insurance.

Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month. For each of the indicators measured (Business Activity, New Orders, Backlog of Orders, New Export Orders, Inventory Change, Inventory Sentiment, Imports, Prices, Employment and Supplier Deliveries), this report shows the percentage reporting each response and the diffusion index. Responses represent raw data and are never changed. Data is seasonally adjusted for Business Activity, New Orders, Prices and Employment. All seasonal adjustment factors are subject annually to relatively minor changes when conditions warrant them. The remaining indexes have not indicated significant seasonality.

The Services PMI^® is a composite index based on the diffusion indexes for four of the indicators with equal weights: Business Activity (seasonally adjusted), New Orders (seasonally adjusted), Employment (seasonally adjusted) and Supplier Deliveries. Diffusion indexes have the properties of leading indicators and are convenient summary measures showing the prevailing direction of change and the scope of change. An index reading above 50 percent indicates that the services economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally declining. Supplier Deliveries is an exception. A Supplier Deliveries Index above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries and below 50 percent indicates faster deliveries.

A Services PMI^® above 49.9 percent, over time, indicates that the overall economy, or gross domestic product (GDP), is generally expanding; below 49.9 percent, it is generally declining. The distance from 50 percent or 49.9 percent is indicative of the strength of the expansion or decline.

The Services ISM^® Report On Business^® survey is sent out to Services Business Survey Committee respondents the first part of each month. Respondents are asked to ONLY report on U.S. operations for the current month. ISM^® receives survey responses throughout most of any given month, with the majority of respondents generally waiting until late in the month to submit responses to give the most accurate picture of current business activity. ISM^® then compiles the report for release on the third business day of the following month.

The industries reporting growth, as indicated in the Services ISM^® Report On Business^® monthly report, are listed in the order of most growth to least growth. For the industries reporting contraction or decreases, those are listed in the order of the highest level of contraction/decrease to the least level of contraction/decrease.

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About Institute for Supply Management^®
Institute for Supply Management^® (ISM^®) serves supply management professionals in more than 90 countries. Its 50,000 members around the world manage about US$1 trillion in corporate and government supply chain procurement annually. Founded in 1915 as the first supply management institute in the world, ISM is committed to advancing the practice of supply management to drive value and competitive advantage for its members, contributing to a prosperous and sustainable world. ISM leads the profession through the ISM^® Report On Business^®, its highly regarded certification programs and the ISM^® Advance^™ Digital Platform. This report has been issued by the association since 1931, except for a four-year interruption during World War II.

The full text version of the Services ISM^® Report On Business^® is posted on ISM^®‘s website at www.ismrob.org on the third business day* of every month after 10:00 a.m. ET.

The next Services ISM^® Report On Business^® featuring August 2023 data will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET on Wednesday, September 6, 2023.

*Unless the New York Stock Exchange is closed.

SOURCE Institute for Supply Management

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