If we want to find a potential multi-bagger, often there are underlying trends that can provide clues. Ideally, a business will show two trends; firstly a growing return on capital employed (ROCE) and secondly, an increasing amount of capital employed. Ultimately, this demonstrates that it’s a business that is reinvesting profits at increasing rates of return. However, after briefly looking over the numbers, we don’t think Knorr-Bremse (ETR:KBX) has the makings of a multi-bagger going forward, but let’s have a look at why that may be.
What Is Return On Capital Employed (ROCE)?
If you haven’t worked with ROCE before, it measures the ‘return’ (pre-tax profit) a company generates from capital employed in its business. The formula for this calculation on Knorr-Bremse is:
Return on Capital Employed = Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) ÷ (Total Assets – Current Liabilities)
0.15 = €812m ÷ (€8.1b – €2.6b) (Based on the trailing twelve months to September 2023).
Therefore, Knorr-Bremse has an ROCE of 15%. In absolute terms, that’s a satisfactory return, but compared to the Machinery industry average of 11% it’s much better.
View our latest analysis for Knorr-Bremse
Above you can see how the current ROCE for Knorr-Bremse compares to its prior returns on capital, but there’s only so much you can tell from the past. If you’re interested, you can view the analysts predictions in our free report on analyst forecasts for the company.
What Can We Tell From Knorr-Bremse’s ROCE Trend?
When we looked at the ROCE trend at Knorr-Bremse, we didn’t gain much confidence. To be more specific, ROCE has fallen from 27% over the last five years. However, given capital employed and revenue have both increased it appears that the business is currently pursuing growth, at the consequence of short term returns. And if the increased capital generates additional returns, the business, and thus shareholders, will benefit in the long run.
The Bottom Line
In summary, despite lower returns in the short term, we’re encouraged to see that Knorr-Bremse is reinvesting for growth and has higher sales as a result. And there could be an opportunity here if other metrics look good too, because the stock has declined 23% in the last five years. So we think it’d be worthwhile to look further into this stock given the trends look encouraging.
If you’d like to know about the risks facing Knorr-Bremse, we’ve discovered 1 warning sign that you should be aware of.
For those who like to invest in solid companies, check out this free list of companies with solid balance sheets and high returns on equity.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.