The challenge for safer, more efficient and green mobility requires a change of pace
28.11.2023
At the Traffic and Circulation Conference, ACI presents the Caracciolo Foundation’s study on the car of tomorrow
Accelerate the renewal of the fleet: in Italy almost 4 cars out of 10 (39%) are more than 15 years old; allow the safe use of vehicles with advanced driver assistance systems and encourage the introduction of automatically guided vehicles, digitalizing infrastructures and adapting road surfaces and signs; accelerate the regulatory process that enables the use of vehicles with advanced autonomous driving systems; integrate young people’s training courses with modules relating to the use of driving assistance systems; promote information campaigns on the benefits of driving assistance systems and specialist analyzes to highlight the possible impact of driving assistance and automatic driving equipment on road accidents.
These are – according to “THE CAR OF TOMORROW: safe, sustainable and accessible”, the Report of the Caracciolo Foundation, presented this morning in Rome, at the 76th “Traffic and Circulation Conference” – the six essential points to ensure that, also in Italy, automation and electrification can revolutionize mobility, making it safer, more efficient and greener.
There are also six steps necessary to tackle, in an eco-rational way, the path towards the desired elimination of greenhouse gas emissions: covering the growing demand for electricity with renewable sources, reducing dependence on fossil fuels; address – in a technologically neutral way – the issue of “alternative” fuels, jointly evaluating the emission coefficient and efficiency; grasp the progress of battery chemistry and enhance its storage potential for renewable overproduction phases; evaluate, in policies to support renewal, all the options that allow the carbon impact reduction objectives to be achieved in a rational way; encourage sustainable car purchasing and driving behavior, using the possibilities offered by available technologies; introduce the essential elements of the different fuel systems and related engines into the courses for acquiring a driving license.
“The mobility of tomorrow – declared the President of the ACI, Angelo Sticchi Damiani – will be a complex ecosystem. To get there, we need to work today on a set of critical issues that require an integrated system of actions, coordinated by a long-term policy that favors the technological evolution of vehicles, the modernization of road and energy infrastructures, the adaptation of legislation and the diffusion of a new culture of responsible and sustainable mobility for all”.
According to Giuseppina Fusco, President of the Caracciolo Foundation and Vice President of ACI, “To translate the virtuous scenarios envisaged in the programs into concrete and rational policies, it is necessary to maintain a ‘realistic and technologically neutral approach’, which takes into account the important goals achieved by our industry, by virtue of the ingenuity and investments in research and development that Italy has carried out in recent years. A significant contribution to the decarbonisation of mobility can come from advanced biofuels, which can already be used in vehicles in circulation, which offer emission levels similar to those of electric vehicles and even lower energy consumption. Not to mention the benefits in terms of the circular economy.”
NEW TECHNOLOGIES AND AUTONOMOUS DRIVING: DETERMINANTS FOR SAFETY
New technologies can offer a decisive contribution to road safety, especially considering the fact that, in our country, human error is responsible for approximately 90% of road accidents. Analyzing the Aci-Istat averages on road accidents over the last 10 years, in Italy, modern safety systems could have avoided 28% of frontal accidents, 21% of lateral accidents and 11% of accidents involving pedestrians . In the next 15 years, according to the European Commission, the increasingly advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) and the most advanced autonomous driving features will be able to save over 25 thousand lives and avoid at least 140 thousand serious injuries. In our country, however, only cars with level 1 and 2 automation systems can circulate. The current legislation, in fact, does not yet allow higher level self-driving vehicles to enter the market and the road infrastructure is not yet adequate to the requirements of partially autonomous systems.
ITALY: 39% CARS ARE MORE THAN 15 YEARS OLD: IT IS URGENT TO RENEW THE FLEET
In Italy, over 39% of cars in circulation are more than 15 years old. Cars that are significantly more unsafe (and more polluting) than newly registered ones. Without an immediate change of pace in the process of renewing a fleet – mainly made up of vehicles without technologies capable of significantly containing the risk of accidents – the desired revolution will not take place.
INFORM TODAY’S MOTORISTS: ASSISTED OR AUTONOMOUS DRIVING CAN SAVE LIVES
By their own admission, Italian motorists do not appear sufficiently informed of the ongoing revolution. This is confirmed by the first evidence from a soon-to-be published survey – which involved a sample (9 thousand interviewees) representative of the motorists most attentive to the world of cars – carried out by the Caracciolo Foundation. The new technologies are known, however, an important part of motorists feels the need to undergo training courses to achieve a more conscious level of knowledge and use. Training could also help to overcome the prejudice of those who consider assisted or autonomous driving technologies to be simple options that make the car more “modern”, rather than systems that can save the lives of the car’s occupants, pedestrians and cyclists.
TRAINING TOMORROW’S MOTORISTS: UPDATE LICENSE EXAM PROGRAMS
The car of tomorrow will be driven by the motorists of tomorrow: it is therefore essential to update the exam programs for young people who qualify to drive. These programs, in fact, are anchored to the cars of yesterday, while – according to the Caracciolo Foundation – they should include the elements of innovation already present today both in terms of assisted and autonomous driving and new energy vectors. An assessment also shared by 77% of the sample who responded to the questionnaire, who agree that driving license courses should be integrated with information on the use of ADAS.
RENEWABLE ELECTRICITY GENERATION AND USE OF LOW CARBON FUELCENTRALS IN DECARBONIZATION PROCESSES
For many years, clean energy – necessary for the electric car to be truly zero-emission throughout its life cycle – will not be able to satisfy growing demand, requiring the combined use of clean sources and traditional fossil fuels. The benefits linked to the use of some zero-emission but highly energy-intensive solutions – such as hydrogen (especially if green) or e-fuels – risk worsening the energy mix of other sectors. In addition to promoting the development of renewable sources, it is essential to understand the energy expenditure of the different solutions available. According to the calculations contained in the study, the electric car is a very convenient energy technology, with a consumption of 14.5 KWh every 100 km, but HVO from UCOs (low-emission fuels deriving from agricultural or food waste) appears equally efficient , with a lower consumption of 10.09 KWh per 100 km. E-fuels, on the other hand, are particularly energy-intensive, with a consumption of 156.8 KWh per 100 km, a value 15 times higher than the previous one.
ELECTRIFICATION and RENEWAL OF THE PARK: LONG TIMES. ELECTRIC CARS = 0.4% OF THE CIRCULATION
Among the critical issues that limit the diffusion of electric vehicles – availability of raw materials, lack of a widespread charging network in the area, generation and consumption of energy – the most relevant is represented by the renewal times of the fleet in circulation, a renewal which is carried out over several decades. The analysis of historical radiation data by age group shows, in fact, that over a quarter of the deregistered vehicles are aged between 10 and 15 years and the highest share of radiations on the total deregistered concerns vehicles in the age group 15-20 years. For these reasons, the significant increase in sales of electric and hybrid vehicles (partly induced by the generous public incentive policy of recent years) has almost imperceptible effects on the fleet. In fact, as of 31 December 2022, these vehicles represented 0.4% of the fleet in circulation. A critical issue confirmed by the answers provided by the sample interviewed: the vast majority – 85% – believe that, for the next 10 years, they will continue to purchase internal combustion or hybrid cars, while only 14% are thinking about purchasing an electric car.
ECONOMIC INCENTIVES FOR LOW-RANGE ECOLOGICAL MODELS: FOSTERING THE POOREST REGIONS, NOT THE WEIEST CATEGORIES
For at least thirty years, the percentage of older combustion vehicles circulating on our roads will remain significant. Today, the price of a battery electric vehicle is more than double that of a combustion vehicle, which – according to the sample interviewed – represents a brake on overall fleet renewal policies. To reduce polluting emissions by 2050, economic incentives are appropriate for the purchase of low-range models (thermal, hybrid or electric), as long as they are ecological, aimed above all at the less well-off categories. Following the French example, a “social” leasing could be activated by the State, with the possibility for families with lower income to immediately benefit from a more sustainable car, through the payment of a modest monthly fee and the possibility of redeem the vehicle with a final instalment.
The summary of the study: https://fondazionecaracciolo.aci.it//app/uploads/2023/11/Summary-Auto-di-domani.pdf
The full study: https://fondazionecaracciolo.aci.it//app/uploads/2023/11/AUTO-DI-DOMANI.pdf