As an investor its worth striving to ensure your overall portfolio beats the market average. But the risk of stock picking is that you will likely buy under-performing companies. Unfortunately, that’s been the case for longer term Magna International Inc. (TSE:MG) shareholders, since the share price is down 20% in the last three years, falling well short of the market return of around 27%.
Since shareholders are down over the longer term, lets look at the underlying fundamentals over the that time and see if they’ve been consistent with returns.
See our latest analysis for Magna International
While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.
Although the share price is down over three years, Magna International actually managed to grow EPS by 33% per year in that time. This is quite a puzzle, and suggests there might be something temporarily buoying the share price. Or else the company was over-hyped in the past, and so its growth has disappointed.
It’s worth taking a look at other metrics, because the EPS growth doesn’t seem to match with the falling share price.
We note that, in three years, revenue has actually grown at a 7.0% annual rate, so that doesn’t seem to be a reason to sell shares. It’s probably worth investigating Magna International further; while we may be missing something on this analysis, there might also be an opportunity.
The image below shows how earnings and revenue have tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).
Magna International is a well known stock, with plenty of analyst coverage, suggesting some visibility into future growth. If you are thinking of buying or selling Magna International stock, you should check out this free report showing analyst consensus estimates for future profits.
What About Dividends?
When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. We note that for Magna International the TSR over the last 3 years was -14%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!
A Different Perspective
Investors in Magna International had a tough year, with a total loss of 6.1% (including dividends), against a market gain of about 5.4%. Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. On the bright side, long term shareholders have made money, with a gain of 6% per year over half a decade. It could be that the recent sell-off is an opportunity, so it may be worth checking the fundamental data for signs of a long term growth trend. It’s always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Magna International better, we need to consider many other factors. Even so, be aware that Magna International is showing 2 warning signs in our investment analysis , you should know about…
If you like to buy stocks alongside management, then you might just love this free list of companies. (Hint: insiders have been buying them).
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Canadian exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.