Knorr-Bremse (ETR:KBX) has had a great run on the share market with its stock up by a significant 17% over the last three months. Given that stock prices are usually aligned with a company’s financial performance in the long-term, we decided to study its financial indicators more closely to see if they had a hand to play in the recent price move. Particularly, we will be paying attention to Knorr-Bremse’s ROE today.
ROE or return on equity is a useful tool to assess how effectively a company can generate returns on the investment it received from its shareholders. In short, ROE shows the profit each dollar generates with respect to its shareholder investments.
View our latest analysis for Knorr-Bremse
How Do You Calculate Return On Equity?
The formula for ROE is:
Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders’ Equity
So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Knorr-Bremse is:
20% = €576m ÷ €2.9b (Based on the trailing twelve months to December 2023).
The ‘return’ is the yearly profit. So, this means that for every €1 of its shareholder’s investments, the company generates a profit of €0.20.
Why Is ROE Important For Earnings Growth?
We have already established that ROE serves as an efficient profit-generating gauge for a company’s future earnings. Based on how much of its profits the company chooses to reinvest or “retain”, we are then able to evaluate a company’s future ability to generate profits. Assuming all else is equal, companies that have both a higher return on equity and higher profit retention are usually the ones that have a higher growth rate when compared to companies that don’t have the same features.
Knorr-Bremse’s Earnings Growth And 20% ROE
To start with, Knorr-Bremse’s ROE looks acceptable. Especially when compared to the industry average of 12% the company’s ROE looks pretty impressive. Needless to say, we are quite surprised to see that Knorr-Bremse’s net income shrunk at a rate of 3.3% over the past five years. We reckon that there could be some other factors at play here that are preventing the company’s growth. For example, it could be that the company has a high payout ratio or the business has allocated capital poorly, for instance.
However, when we compared Knorr-Bremse’s growth with the industry we found that while the company’s earnings have been shrinking, the industry has seen an earnings growth of 14% in the same period. This is quite worrisome.
Earnings growth is an important metric to consider when valuing a stock. It’s important for an investor to know whether the market has priced in the company’s expected earnings growth (or decline). Doing so will help them establish if the stock’s future looks promising or ominous. Has the market priced in the future outlook for KBX? You can find out in our latest intrinsic value infographic research report.
Is Knorr-Bremse Making Efficient Use Of Its Profits?
In spite of a normal three-year median payout ratio of 48% (that is, a retention ratio of 52%), the fact that Knorr-Bremse’s earnings have shrunk is quite puzzling. So there could be some other explanations in that regard. For instance, the company’s business may be deteriorating.
Moreover, Knorr-Bremse has been paying dividends for five years, which is a considerable amount of time, suggesting that management must have perceived that the shareholders prefer consistent dividends even though earnings have been shrinking. Based on the latest analysts’ estimates, we found that the company’s future payout ratio over the next three years is expected to hold steady at 47%. Therefore, the company’s future ROE is also not expected to change by much with analysts predicting an ROE of 20%.
Summary
In total, it does look like Knorr-Bremse has some positive aspects to its business. Yet, the low earnings growth is a bit concerning, especially given that the company has a high rate of return and is reinvesting ma huge portion of its profits. By the looks of it, there could be some other factors, not necessarily in control of the business, that’s preventing growth. Having said that, looking at current analyst estimates, we found that the company’s earnings growth rate is expected to see a huge improvement. To know more about the company’s future earnings growth forecasts take a look at this free report on analyst forecasts for the company to find out more.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.