If you love investing in stocks you’re bound to buy some losers. But long term Dana Incorporated (NYSE:DAN) shareholders have had a particularly rough ride in the last three year. Regrettably, they have had to cope with a 54% drop in the share price over that period. The more recent news is of little comfort, with the share price down 35% in a year. Furthermore, it’s down 23% in about a quarter. That’s not much fun for holders.
After losing 10% this past week, it’s worth investigating the company’s fundamentals to see what we can infer from past performance.
View our latest analysis for Dana
In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.
We know that Dana has been profitable in the past. On the other hand, it reported a trailing twelve months loss, suggesting it isn’t reliably profitable. Other metrics might give us a better handle on how its value is changing over time.
Revenue is actually up 7.8% over the three years, so the share price drop doesn’t seem to hinge on revenue, either. This analysis is just perfunctory, but it might be worth researching Dana more closely, as sometimes stocks fall unfairly. This could present an opportunity.
You can see how earnings and revenue have changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).
You can see how its balance sheet has strengthened (or weakened) over time in this free interactive graphic.
What About Dividends?
As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. It’s fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. We note that for Dana the TSR over the last 3 years was -51%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. And there’s no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!
A Different Perspective
Dana shareholders are down 32% for the year (even including dividends), but the market itself is up 21%. However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. Regrettably, last year’s performance caps off a bad run, with the shareholders facing a total loss of 5% per year over five years. We realise that Baron Rothschild has said investors should “buy when there is blood on the streets”, but we caution that investors should first be sure they are buying a high quality business. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. For instance, we’ve identified 2 warning signs for Dana that you should be aware of.
If you would prefer to check out another company — one with potentially superior financials — then do not miss this free list of companies that have proven they can grow earnings.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.