When you buy shares in a company, it’s worth keeping in mind the possibility that it could fail, and you could lose your money. But on a lighter note, a good company can see its share price rise well over 100%. For example, the HELLA GmbH & Co. KGaA (ETR:HLE) share price has soared 112% in the last half decade. Most would be very happy with that. On the other hand, the stock price has retraced 4.8% in the last week.
While this past week has detracted from the company’s five-year return, let’s look at the recent trends of the underlying business and see if the gains have been in alignment.
See our latest analysis for HELLA GmbH KGaA
To quote Buffett, ‘Ships will sail around the world but the Flat Earth Society will flourish. There will continue to be wide discrepancies between price and value in the marketplace…’ By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.
During five years of share price growth, HELLA GmbH KGaA actually saw its EPS drop 12% per year.
This means it’s unlikely the market is judging the company based on earnings growth. Because earnings per share don’t seem to match up with the share price, we’ll take a look at other metrics instead.
The modest 0.8% dividend yield is unlikely to be propping up the share price. On the other hand, HELLA GmbH KGaA’s revenue is growing nicely, at a compound rate of 4.8% over the last five years. It’s quite possible that management are prioritizing revenue growth over EPS growth at the moment.
The company’s revenue and earnings (over time) are depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).
If you are thinking of buying or selling HELLA GmbH KGaA stock, you should check out this FREE detailed report on its balance sheet.
What About Dividends?
When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. As it happens, HELLA GmbH KGaA’s TSR for the last 5 years was 127%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. And there’s no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!
A Different Perspective
It’s nice to see that HELLA GmbH KGaA shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 26% over the last year. Of course, that includes the dividend. Since the one-year TSR is better than the five-year TSR (the latter coming in at 18% per year), it would seem that the stock’s performance has improved in recent times. Someone with an optimistic perspective could view the recent improvement in TSR as indicating that the business itself is getting better with time. Before forming an opinion on HELLA GmbH KGaA you might want to consider these 3 valuation metrics.
We will like HELLA GmbH KGaA better if we see some big insider buys. While we wait, check out this free list of undervalued stocks (mostly small caps) with considerable, recent, insider buying.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on German exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.