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With the big “We, Robot” Tesla event the other day, I couldn’t help returning to something from 5 years ago. It is a mixture of frustrating, hilarious, and essentially fraudulent.
“We, Robot” could have taken place 5–8 years ago, because the core points were presented back then. One of the same comparisons was made back then — the comparison to elevator operators. Tesla vehicles could have driven by themselves around a Warner Bros. fake downtown back then as well — it would just be the Model 3, S, and X that would have been used. And, importantly, Elon Musk proclaimed with great enthusiasm that Tesla cars bought back in 2018 and 2019 would be appreciating assets — because they were going to be able to make their owners money as robotaxis within a couple of years.
I bought my 2019 Tesla Model 3 in mid-2019, with the latest notes from Musk at the time being that feature-complete Full Self Driving would be complete by the end of the year. Depending on software progress and regulatory approval, I might have a robotaxi on my hands in a year or two. (It was not shared until much later that it was around this same time that Tesla decided it needed to do a complete rewrite and tackle the problem from a different angle.)
It’s now more than 5 years later. Many Teslas sold at that time are no longer with their original owners — either sold on or destroyed in accidents. I still have mine, but, shockingly, it has not appreciated in value. In fact, it’s worth well below 50% of what I bought it for.
Here’s the thing: the timeframes for achieving robotaxi capability presented at “We, Robot” are basically the same as the timeframes presented by Elon Musk at a similar presentation in 2018 — relative to the time of the presentation. In other words, the same promises are being made right now as were made several years ago. But what happened to those earlier promises? I almost feel like I’m in some kind of Marvel timewarp or mass brainwashing. We are getting the same pitch, 5 years later, but the pitch from 5 years ago clearly never came true.
Rather than being told that cars bought at the time of that first presentation will, finally, become appreciating assets any day now, the hype is around a new Cybercab design to be built in 2027. But, wait, when will my 2019 Model 3 finally be worth more than I bought it for?
I know some think this is a personal gripe. If it was only that, I’d take it up with Tesla management. The point is that millions of people have bought Teslas following these promises and based off of them, and I have a hard time believing anyone who bought a Tesla in the past 5 years is going to see their Tesla appreciate in value. That’s what the new cyber vehicles are for — to distract people from the previous presentation, hype, and promise.
I honestly am quite surprised there haven’t been class action lawsuits filed at this point. These are slides used in the 2018 presentation:
There were some new elements in this presentation, though, compared to 5–8 years ago. Musk discussed the humanoid robot they are developing, noting both that he thinks one will cost $20,000–30,000 long term, once it’s produced at scale, and that he thinks “this will be the biggest product ever of any kind.” He thinks something at that price that is not essential to a working class person’s life will become the biggest product ever. I’m at a loss for words.
Did Elon throw a good party? Yes, for sure. Dancing robots in a gazebo with “What Is Love?” playing, cool-looking futuristic Cybercabs and Cybervans driving people around a pretty Hollywood townscape: fun. Would have been nice to be a part of the party. But it feels like a giant Hollywood smokescreen to distract from the fact that the same promises were made 5+ years ago, and no one who bought a car at that time — or probably since then — bought an appreciating asset.
Again, maybe I have become too skeptical and will be proven wrong. That would be great. However, it is already half a decade since these forecasts — about customer cars produced at that time — began.
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