Three Key States—PA, IA, and GA—Will Determine the Final Outcome, with TX Emerging Closer Than Expected
Resonate’s proprietary AI-models have accurately predicted past two Presidential elections
RESTON, Va., Nov. 5, 2024 /PRNewswire/ — Resonate, the leader in predictive consumer and voter intelligence, has predicted Trump as the winner of the 2024 Presidential Election in the final day of a volatile and dynamic election cycle.
According to Resonate’s data, which is refreshed daily to capture real-time shifts in voter sentiment, Trump currently holds a razor-thin projected Electoral College advantage of 270-268, though several key states like Iowa, Pennsylvania, and Georgia, are only leaning Republican. While Trump has narrow leads in those states, the number of likely voters who remain undecided and will make their decision at the ballot box today is larger than his margin in PA, IA, and GA. A decisive victory for Harris among late deciders could flip the projected narrow lead for Trump into a significant win for Harris.
The final outcome will hinge on these undecided voters where even small shifts could determine the winner based on key issues.
While Trump is likely to hold Texas, the state is surprisingly close. Resonate data has identified key issues like abortion rights are emerging as a decisive factor for voters in states that have implemented full bans or had full bans that were subsequently overturned. However, this shift alone may not be enough to flip strongly Republican-leaning states, though it is making several races surprisingly more competitive than initially expected. Related to abortion rights and other key issues, Resonate’s data anticipates Arizona to go to Harris.
Resonate’s methodology uses a proprietary, privacy-safe AI infrastructure, rAI, that analyzes trillions of anonymized online data points daily across 250 million U.S. adults. This predictive approach enabled Resonate to accurately project the outcomes of the past two presidential elections down to specific states, counties and zip codes including accurately predicting the popular vote within 13,000 votes in Georgia in 2020. In 2020, Resonate also correctly forecasted Biden’s win and uniquely predicted his victory in Nebraska —the second such win for a Democrat in the state. The company also anticipated his 55% share of the vote in Miami-Dade County.
In 2016, two weeks prior to the election, Resonate rAI technology detected shifts in voter intention following the Comey email announcement, causing Resonate to adjust its prediction from a win for Clinton to a win for Trump.
“Polls are a static snapshot of a moment in time of small sample of individuals. They are often less accurate because of the difficulty in capturing evolving public sentiment,” says Resonate CEO Bryan Gernert. “They can be compromised by a number of factors, including the willingness of people to say what they truly think about certain issues or candidates. Conversely, AI-powered data is real-time, dynamic, and incredibly precise.”
For more information about Resonate’s 2024 Presidential Election prediction, see our analysis HERE.
About Resonate
Headquartered in Reston, VA, Resonate is the leader in predictive consumer intelligence, delivering proprietary, privacy-safe consumer and voter data for insights, analysis and activation. The Resonate data set includes more than 15,000 rich, relevant, real-time data points that holistically describe more than 250 million U.S. consumer profiles. Resonate data is delivered directly through top demand-side platform (DSP) providers, data append and licensing, the Resonate Ignite platform or through Resonate Managed Media Services. Hundreds of companies and campaigns use Resonate to drive more effective marketing strategy and execution fueled by a comprehensive and continuously updated understanding of their audience that extends beyond traditional demographics, psychographics and behavioral data to uncover why people choose, buy, or support certain brands, products, candidates or causes.
SOURCE Resonate
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