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Plugin vehicles are all the rage in the Chinese auto market, with plugins scoring yet another new record, a little more than 1.19 million sales (in a 2.26-million-unit overall market). That’s up 57% year over year (YoY), compared to the overall market being up 11%, and it’s the 3rd month above one million units.
Looking deeper at the numbers, it’s clear that we are on the peak end (Q4) of EV seasonality in China, with growth coming from all electric powertrains. BEVs were up by 37% in October, to a record 673,000 units, while PHEVs jumped 108% in the same period, to 405,000 units, which is also a record. Not to be outdone, EREVs were also at record heights, reaching 117,000 units, 55% growth YoY.
Breaking down plugin sales by powertrain, BEVs had 56% of sales, inline with the YTD numbers, while EREVs had 10% of plugin sales in September and regular PHEVs were responsible for the remaining 34%.
The year-to-date (YTD) tally is around 8.4 million units, a significant rise over the 6.2 million units in the same period of 2023.
Share-wise, October saw plugin vehicles hit 53% market share! Full electrics (BEVs) alone accounted for 30% of the country’s auto sales. This kept the 2024 share at 47% (27% BEV), and with the market still having two more months to grow, the year should end close to 50%.
Comparing this result with what was happening twelve months ago, at the time, the 2023 plugin share was 36% (24% BEV), which means that, while BEVs are experiencing moderate growth (27% vs 24%), the PHEV share (including EREVs) is growing faster (20% vs 12%). At this pace, we should have the Chinese market fully electrified around 2030!
The overall top seven was 100% plugins, with the Tesla Model Y being the best-selling non-BYD model, in … 6th. Yep, the top 5 was all BYD! The best selling ICE model was the VW Lavida, in 8th, with some 32,000 units sold.
In October, of the three pure fossil fuel models present in the top 10, the big surprise was the #10 Toyota RAV4, which grew 84% YoY! What might have justified this surge at a time when ICE vehicle sales are in the toilet? Deep discounts? Something else?…
Looking at several categories, all but the C segment have plugins on the podium, while in the compact category (C segment), we see something that we haven’t seen in over a year, a 100% ICE podium.
Still, I believe this is temporary. BYD’s Yuan Plus continues going strong, the promising Geely Galaxy E5 is still ramping up, while the upcoming Seal 06 GT (not so) compact hatchback will surely help things for the EV side. And don’t forget the recently introduced Xpeng Mona M03….
BYD currently dominates the market, with the Shenzhen make leading the tables in three categories — the midsize category, with the Shenzhen make even managing to have a 100% BYD podium; the full-size category, where the recent refresh allowed the Han to return to the top; and the A segment (city car) category, where the Seagull rules.
In subcompacts (the B segment), the Wuling Bingo is profiting from split sales in the BYD field — between the established Dolphin (18,231 units) and the new Yuan Up (20,216 units).
With the Geely Geome Xingyuan landing with a bang this month (15,130 units!), expect the small hatchback to disrupt the category status quo soon.
Best Selling EVs — One by One
Regarding last month’s best-sellers table, the top 5 best selling models in the overall table exactly mirrored the ones in the EV table — proving that the merging process is consolidating. Here’s more info and commentary on October’s top selling electric models:
#1 — BYD Song (BEV+PHEV)
BYD’s midsize SUV is the uncontested leader in the Chinese automotive market, and the star player retained its leadership position in October. The midsize SUV scored 65,807 registrations, a new year best. Will the Song continue to rule in the Chinese automotive market? Well, it depends on the competition, including the internal competition. Despite an increasing number of competitors, the Song continues clocking over 50,000 sales/month, a necessary threshold to continue leading the cutthroat Chinese auto market. But thanks to its competitive pricing, the Song is continuing its success story.
#2 — BYD Seagull
Things continue to go well for the hatchback model, with the small EV ending October in the 2nd spot thanks to a record 51,288 registrations. Even with part of production now being diverted to export markets, it seems demand for the little Lambo is still growing in China. And with greater export potential than the regular Song, the perky EV could become the best selling BYD globally soon. With the attention now spread into other geographies, like Latin America and Asia-Pacific (and Europe?), we could see the little hatchback ascend to the second position in the EV ranking in 2025, both globally and at home.
#3 — BYD Qin Plus (BEV+PHEV)
Along with the Song, the BYD Qin has been a bread & butter model for the Chinese automaker for a long time. The midsize sedan reached 39,808 registrations in October (with 9,002 units belonging to the BEV version). This meant it was 3rd in the overall market, having climbed 5% YoY, a small feat for the veteran sedan (it was launched in 2018). Why does it continue to sell so well? I guess it might have to do with its prices starting at 80,000 CNY ($12,000)….
#4 & #5 — BYD Qin L & BYD Seal 06
These new sedans are basically two different takes on the 3rd generation of the BYD Qin, but because the second generation is still running strongly, BYD added names for the new ones to separate them. In September, they climbed to 4th and 5th, respectively, with the Seal 05 still in ramp-up mode and scoring a record 38,069 sales (its 4th record in a row). And they have done this without hurting the sales of the regular Qin Plus too much! At this moment, BYD has a sort of Midas touch, transforming into gold almost everything it launches into the market, and it has launched a lot of metal recently…. Just to have an idea, if we were to add the October sales of the Qin Plus with the sales of the Qin L, the sales of the Seal 06 (which is a sort of left-field trim line of the Qin L), and the sales of the #13 Destroyer 05 (the left-field trim line of the Qin Plus), we would get more than 139,000 registrations! That’s more than what the Tesla Model Y does globally!
BYD’s Domination in the Top 20
Looking at the rest of the top 10 list, there were eight BYDs in total in the top 10 positions. And that’s not all. …
… Looking at the rest of the table, we have three more BYDs, with the Destroyer 05 in 13th, the Yuan Up in 15th (with a record 20,216 units), and the Dolphin in 18th with a year-best score of 18,231 units. Therefore, there were eleven BYD representatives in the top 20!
It feels like, to beat the Dragon Kings (Tesla Model 3 & Model Y), BYD raised a pack of smaller dragons which on their own might not be enough to beat the kings but when fighting together sure can leave them in the dust. (E Pluribus Unum and all that.)
This kind of domination is happening at a time when BYD still has several potential best selling models either landing or ramping up (the Seal 06, Song L, and Yuan Up all had record months, just like the Sea Lion 07, which registered 12,555 units in October). Sure, at this point these models will likely cannibalize existing BYD models, but they will also steal sales from the competition.
More Top 20 Notes
Outside the BYD Galaxy, the revised Wuling Mini EV is back on the growth track, ending the month in 7th with 34,185 registrations, the EV’s best result since December 2022. Highlighting Wuling’s good month, the bigger Bingo also had a year-best result, ending at #12 with 24,106 registrations.
Another model on the rise is the Li Auto L6, which was 11th with a record 25,814 deliveries, prolonging its record streak to six months. The smaller of Li Auto’s lineup is the make’s newest model, and probably the best from the make so far, so expect the midsize SUV to become a frequent presence in the top 10.
A surprising result (then again … maybe not) was the 14th spot of the Xiaomi SU7, thanks to a record 20,216 registrations. And with demand more than assured, the hot sedan is only dependent on scaling up production in order to become an even greater disruptive force in China. (And then the world?)
The Changan Lumin also shined, thanks to a record 17,040 registrations, allowing the little EV to end the month at #17.
Looking at the bottom of the table, we have two Geely models. The Galaxy E5 crossover jumped to #19 in only its 3rd month on the market, thanks to 15,712 registrations, while at #20 there’s the Panda Mini, allowing Geely to have two models on the table. With the small Geome Xingyuan landing with an impressive 15,130 units, we might soon have three Geelys on the table, which would signal something that has been brewing for a while: Geely is becoming BYD’s strongest competitor. To be continued….
The Geely Panda Mini’s solid result also highlighted the good moment city cars are having. With the Wuling Mini EV and Changan Lumin back to peak form and the ramp-up of FAW’s Bestune Xiaoma (12,633 registrations in its 5th month on the market), tiny city cars had a great month in October.
Beyond the Top 20
Outside the top 20, as usual, there was a lot to talk about, like Xpeng’s Mona M03 scoring 10,203 deliveries in its second month on the market, a model that will surely feature in the top 20 soon (and provide the startup a way forward to profitability). Additionally, the aforementioned Geely Geome Xingyuan landed with a strong 15,130 registrations. Expect it to also join the table soon.
Leapmotor continues to expand, and this time the star was the C11 SUV, hitting 10,286 sales, a new year best. The recently introduced Zeekr 7X got 11,643 deliveries in only its 3rd month, meaning Geely’s premium brand seems to have finally found a successor to the 001 as its star player.
Looking at foreign OEMs, the only highlight comes from the Volkswagen ID.3, which had a year-best score of 9,998 registrations.
The 20 Best Selling Electric Vehicles in China — January–October 2024
Looking at the 2024 ranking, there’s nothing new in the top positions, with the podium bearers — the BYD Song, BYD Qin Plus, and Tesla Model Y — safely in their positions.
We have to go down to the 6th position to see some action. There, the Wuling Mini EV benefitted from another good result and climbed one spot, surpassing the BYD Destroyer 05.
The BYD Han benefited from its recent refresh to rise to #8, while the BYD Qin L continued on the way up, climbing to #10. But the Climber of the Month was the BYD Seal 06, which jumped five positions to #13. Expect both BYD midsizers to continue climbing positions through the end of the year.
The rising Li Xiang L6 has jumped two positions and is now 12th, with the midsize SUV maybe climbing another position by year end and ending 2024 in 11th.
Finally, we signal another BYD on the table (because there weren’t enough of them…). The Tang returned to the table at #20, and that makes it ten BYDs in the top 20.
Changes in the Overall Brand Ranking
In October, the top three positions mirrored the 2023 full year ranking, with BYD on top followed by Volkswagen and Toyota. The dynamics are quite different, though. BYD grew 68% YoY (will they ever find a demand ceiling?), doubling the sales of #2 Volkswagen, which was up by only 2%, and #3 Toyota, which grew by 9%. So, while the first place automaker is still rising fast (to infinity and beyond?), the other two are simply watching BYD speed away in a fast changing market.
Confirming the domestic takeover, #4 Geely (+31% YoY) is firm in its position, while below it, Wuling (+35%) stayed in the 5th position.
Honda, 4th in the full year of 2023, was only 7th in October, with a steep sales drop of 42% YoY. It’s like the ground is vanishing from beneath the Japanese carmaker’s wheels.
Still, there are others worse than Honda, like #25 Buick being down 50% in October, #52 Cadillac cratering 63% YoY, and #57 Chevrolet also falling 63%! Basically, it looks like GM is being wiped out of China….
But it is not only GM in danger of closing shop in China in the next couple of years. #41 Hyundai was down 48% in October. The spectre of falling demand is common across the board of foreign legacy OEMs.
On the other hand, others are on the way up, like #19 AITO, which jumped 143% YoY, and #19 Leapmotor, which jumped 98%. There is a seismic shift happening in China, with legacy OEM sales being replaced by new startups, and this trend promises to expand beyond China’s borders in the coming years….
Looking at the auto brand PEV ranking, there’s no major news. BYD (33.1%, up 0.2% from September) is firm in its leadership position, and there’s really no way to see this domination ending anytime soon.
Things get more interesting below, though. Tesla (6%, down from 6.5%) dropped share, as expected. After all, it was the first month of the quarter. But it remained comfortable in the runner-up spot. Wuling profited from good results from its dynamic duo (Bingo and Mini EV) to remain stable at 5.2% share.
#4 Li Auto (4.7%, down from 4.8% in September) lost some ground over rising #5 Geely (4.4%, up from 4.3%). #6 AITO had a slow month and lost share (3.9%, down from 4.1%), but because #7 Aion was also down (3.5%, down 0.1%), it remained comfortable in its position just outside the top 5.
Looking at OEMs/automotive groups/auto alliances, BYD Group is comfortably leading, with 34.8% share of the market. That increase in share is mostly thanks to the strong results of its namesake brand, as its daughter brands are not exactly in top form…. So, while the main brand goes from strength to strength, Denza, Fang Cheng Bao, and Yangwang are not doing their part when it comes to increasing the OEM’s profit margins. Hey, one can’t have everything, right?
Geely–Volvo is a distant runner-up, with 7.7% share. The namesake’s good result in October was dragged down by sister brands having a slow month. Still, looking back to where the OEM was a year ago, the progress is visible. In October 2023, Geely was 5th, with 6.3% share. So, in 12 months, the Chinese OEM gained 1.4% market share, making it the fastest growing automotive group in China share-wise. Turns out, launching a ton of new metal does help to increase sales….
Tesla (6%) is firm in 3rd, while #4 SAIC (5.7%) hasn’t profited from Wuling’s good moment due to weak results elsewhere.
#5 Changan lost some share (5.7%, down 0.1% in October), but with SAIC falling even faster, it could be the case that November will bring a position change between these two. #6 GAC (4.6%) remained stable, but it is too far from a top 5 finish.
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