Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) is sporting a market capitalization of $888 billion as I write this. That’s big! And that’s after a year-to-date drop of 38%. The shares have been dropping recently for multiple reasons — such as vehicle quality issues (including a recall of all Cybertrucks) and CEO Elon Musk’s controversial actions in the U.S. government.
Tesla may do well from here on out, but its brand and reputation have taken a hit that might last a while. I think there’s a chance the stock won’t grow much over the next decade. Here are three stocks I think will have bigger market caps than Tesla in a decade.
Image source: Getty Images.
1. BYD
BYD (BYDDY -1.50%) has long been a rival of Tesla’s, and recent news reports suggest that it’s winning. It’s a Chinese company specializing in clean energy vehicles and related products, and none other than famed investor Warren Buffett is an investor in the company.
BYD recently posted a great fourth-quarter earnings report, with record revenue of $107 billion for the 2024 year, outpacing Tesla’s $98 billion. The carmaker delivered 4.25 million vehicles last year, nearly as many as Ford Motor Company. Even more impressive, BYD’s Super E-Platform can reportedly charge an electric car in just 5 minutes, giving it about 250 miles of range.
BYD’s market value was recently $162 billion. With revenue up 29% year over year in 2024, let’s assume that its market value keeps growing over the coming decade at just 20%. If so, it will end up worth about $1 trillion, well above Tesla’s current value. If the market value grows at 25% over a decade, it will end up near $1.5 trillion.
2. Intuitive Surgical
Intuitive Surgical (ISRG -2.58%) is another promising company, making and selling robotic surgical equipment. In fact, it’s a leader in this field, with a recent market value around $182 billion. The company is growing at a solid clip. In January it posted its fourth-quarter results, featuring revenue up 25% year over year and adjusted earnings per share up 38%. Intuitive installed 493 of its da Vinci surgical systems in the quarter, boosting its installed base of machines worldwide by 15%, to nearly 10,000 machines.
A wonderful thing about Intuitive Surgical’s business model is that much of its revenue is recurring revenue — from sales of service contracts, accessories, and supplies for its costly surgical systems. It’s the old razor-and-blade model.
Intuitive’s revenue surged 25% in 2024, and if the company’s market value grows at 20% over the coming decade, that would give it a value of $1.1 trillion. With a recent forward-looking price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 62 well above its five-year average of 55, the shares seem overvalued right now, so it might be best to hope for a pullback — or to buy in incrementally.
3. Berkshire Hathaway
I’m including Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A -1.74%) (BRK.B -1.14%) in this group of stocks that I think will be worth more than Tesla in a decade, even though it’s not growing as briskly as it has in the past. That’s in large part because it’s grown to be one of America’s biggest companies, with a recent market value of $1.1 trillion, already bigger than Tesla.
I love Berkshire Hathaway because it’s built to last. CEO Warren Buffett has built it into a robust conglomerate, owning lots of companies in their entirety (such as GEICO, Dairy Queen International, and the whole BNSF railroad) and lots of stocks, too (such as Apple, American Express, and Coca-Cola).
Berkshire Hathaway’s revenue grew by a total of 30% between 2019 and 2024, and it has roughly doubled over the past decade. If the company’s market value grows by, say, 80% in the coming decade, that will put it near $2 trillion 10 years from now. I think there’s a decent chance Tesla will not be a $2 trillion company then.
Those three companies are ones I predict will be worth more than Tesla in a decade. If any interest you, dive deeper into them. And remember that I’m just an investor like you. These predictions may not pan out — though I think they will.
American Express is an advertising partner of Motley Fool Money. Selena Maranjian has positions in American Express, Apple, Berkshire Hathaway, and Intuitive Surgical. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Apple, Berkshire Hathaway, Intuitive Surgical, and Tesla. The Motley Fool recommends BYD Company. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.