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Dana’s estimated fair value is US$18.04 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
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With US$16.63 share price, Dana appears to be trading close to its estimated fair value
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Analyst price target for DAN is US$19.29, which is 6.9% above our fair value estimate
In this article we are going to estimate the intrinsic value of Dana Incorporated (NYSE:DAN) by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to today’s value. This will be done using the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Models like these may appear beyond the comprehension of a lay person, but they’re fairly easy to follow.
Companies can be valued in a lot of ways, so we would point out that a DCF is not perfect for every situation. Anyone interested in learning a bit more about intrinsic value should have a read of the Simply Wall St analysis model.
We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second ‘steady growth’ period. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren’t available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today’s value:
|
2025 |
2026 |
2027 |
2028 |
2029 |
2030 |
2031 |
2032 |
2033 |
2034 |
|
|
Levered FCF ($, Millions) |
US$237.9m |
US$287.0m |
US$318.6m |
US$255.6m |
US$221.8m |
US$203.2m |
US$193.1m |
US$188.1m |
US$186.3m |
US$186.7m |
|
Growth Rate Estimate Source |
Analyst x3 |
Analyst x2 |
Analyst x2 |
Analyst x1 |
Est @ -13.22% |
Est @ -8.37% |
Est @ -4.98% |
Est @ -2.60% |
Est @ -0.94% |
Est @ 0.22% |
|
Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 9.6% |
US$217 |
US$239 |
US$242 |
US$177 |
US$140 |
US$117 |
US$102 |
US$90.2 |
US$81.5 |
US$74.6 |
(“Est” = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$1.5b
The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business’s cash flow after the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country’s GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (2.9%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year ‘growth’ period, we discount future cash flows to today’s value, using a cost of equity of 9.6%.
Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2034 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$187m× (1 + 2.9%) ÷ (9.6%– 2.9%) = US$2.9b
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= US$2.9b÷ ( 1 + 9.6%)10= US$1.1b
The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is US$2.6b. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of US$16.6, the company appears about fair value at a 7.8% discount to where the stock price trades currently. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent.
We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company’s future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company’s future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company’s potential performance. Given that we are looking at Dana as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we’ve used 9.6%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.542. Beta is a measure of a stock’s volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
Check out our latest analysis for Dana
Strength
Weakness
Opportunity
Threat
Although the valuation of a company is important, it shouldn’t be the only metric you look at when researching a company. DCF models are not the be-all and end-all of investment valuation. Rather it should be seen as a guide to “what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?” For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. For Dana, there are three pertinent elements you should look at:
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Risks: Take risks, for example – Dana has 2 warning signs (and 1 which shouldn’t be ignored) we think you should know about.
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Future Earnings: How does DAN’s growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
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Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!
PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every American stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.