Earnings are arguably the most important single number on a company’s quarterly financial report. Wall Street clearly dives into all of the other metrics and management’s input, but the EPS figure helps cut through all the noise.
We know earnings results are vital, but how a company performs compared to bottom line expectations can be even more important when it comes to stock prices, especially in the near-term. This means that investors might want to take advantage of these earnings surprises.
The Zacks Earnings ESP is more formally known as the Expected Surprise Prediction, and it aims to grab the inside track on the latest analyst estimate revisions ahead of a company’s report. The idea is relatively intuitive as a newer projection might be based on more complete information. The ESP is calculated by comparing the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, with the percentage difference between the two giving us the Zacks ESP figure.
Now that we understand what the ESP is and how beneficial it can be, let’s dive into a stock that currently fits the bill. Rivian Automotive (RIVN) earns a Zacks Rank #3 right now and its Most Accurate Estimate sits at -$0.59 a share, just one day from its upcoming earnings release on August 5, 2025.
By taking the percentage difference between the -$0.59 Most Accurate Estimate and the -$0.65 Zacks Consensus Estimate, Rivian Automotive has an Earnings ESP of +8.53%.
RIVN is one of just a large database of Auto-Tires-Trucks stocks with positive ESPs. Another solid-looking stock is Magna (MGA).
Magna, which is readying to report earnings on November 7, 2025, sits at a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) right now. Its Most Accurate Estimate is currently $1.44 a share, and MGA is 95 days out from its next earnings report.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Magna is $1.32, and when you take the percentage difference between that number and its Most Accurate Estimate, you get the Earnings ESP figure of +9.36%.
RIVN and MGA’s positive ESP metrics may signal that a positive earnings surprise for both stocks is on the horizon.
Use the Zacks Earnings ESP Filter to turn up stocks with the highest probability of positively, or negatively, surprising to buy or sell before they’re reported for profitable earnings season trading. Check it out here >>
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