July saw plugin EVs take 33.8% share of the UK auto market, up from 27.4% year-on-year. BEVs grew in volume by 9% YoY, while PHEVs grew 33%. Overall auto volume was 140,154 units, down some 5% YoY. Volkswagen was the UK’s leading BEV brand for the month.
July’s sales totals saw combined plugin EVs take 33.8% share of the UK auto market, with full electrics (BEVs) taking 21.3%, and plugin hybrids (PHEVs) taking 12.5%. These compare with YoY shares of 27.4% combined, 18.5% BEV, and 8.9% PHEV.
BEV YoY growth was relatively weak in July, in large part due to the government’s mishandling of the reintroduction of BEV incentives. In short, the government announced in mid-July that BEV incentives would be reappearing, but the announcement came several weeks before the new incentive rules were clarified and started operating.
Predictably, this delay meant that many buyers cancelled their previous orders for BEVs while waiting for clarity, putting a damper on late-July BEV sales. Because of this, some manufacturers made “special offers” during this interim period, to keep sales moving, albeit at a reduced rate.
As of time of writing, only a few Citroen BEV models have been confirmed as eligible for the government incentive, though others will come with time. The grant will range from £1,500 to £3,750 and with an eligibility ceiling of £37,000 (“on the road” MSRP). Chinese-made cars will be excluded, because duh, of course. The ostensible reasoning relates to carbon-intensity of manufacturing, similar to the ostensible reasoning that accompanied the French Eco-bonus’ exclusions. The UK exclusion comes despite China recently reaching its carbon peak 5 years earlier than planned, and now leading the world in clean tech development.
The real reason for the exclusion is of course protectionism for laggard legacy western manufacturers and their profits.
Best-Selling BEV Brands
With Tesla on a quarterly ebb, Volkswagen was the leading BEV seller in July, with 9.5% of the BEV market. Ford came in second (8.3%) and Audi came third (7.2%).
Other than Tesla taking the expected MoM slide in ranking, there weren’t many major changes. Hyundai has seen a slight climb recently, helped by the arrival of the new Inster, and by the Kona remaining popular. Likewise Skoda has been ahead of its previous ranking, thanks to the new Elroq.
Perhaps most notably, Ford has been climbing recently. This is in large part a result of the ZEV mandate – Ford has traditionally been a high volume brand in the UK auto market, so it needs to also shift a large number of BEVs to meet the ZEV mandate. From a position of 6th over the trailing 12 months, Ford hit 2nd spot in July (and is also climbing in the trailing 3 month rankings as we will see below).
The Ford Explorer SUV, which was launched in August 2024, is Ford’s leading BEV model. Indeed, the Explorer looks to have been the UK’s best-selling BEV in July (though patchy data doesn’t allow us to say this 100% definitively).
The new MG S5 appears to be doing well, climbing again from June’s >520 units to >675 in July, and placing inside the top 10. It was joined by another two new MG debutants in July. In the home market of China, these two newcomers are part of MG’s sibling brand, “Intelligence in Motion” (IM), but in overseas markets like the UK and Australia, IM is positioned as a sub-brand of MG. The new models are the IM5 sedan, and the IM6 SUV, and each registered an initial handful of test drive units in July.
Both these platform-sharing MG models are large E-segment vehicles, with lengths of 4,931mm (IM5) and 4,903 mm (IM6). The IM5 starts at £40,000 (standard range, 75 kWh), and steps up to £45,000 for the long range (100 kWh). Meanwhile the IM6 only comes with the bigger battery, and starts at £48,000. More expensive performance variants are available. Each model represents “a lot of vehicle for the money”, so let’s see how they get on in the UK market, given that the MG brand is already well established.
In terms of the small-and-affordable segment, many models (Renault 5, Renault 4, Citroen e-C3, and Hyundai Inster) dropped volume in July compared to June, perhaps due to batch shipping for the RHD market and in part due to the confusion around the incoming incentive. The BYD Dolphin Surf however increased its numbers, from June’s 197 units, to 253 units in July. Overall, these more affordable cars are particularly likely to get a boost for the new BEV incentive (if eligible) once it’s operational, so we will keep an eye on this segment.
Let’s take a look at the trailing 3 month ranking:
Tesla still has a slight lead over Volkswagen, and both are a step ahead of BMW in third. Their ranks are unchanged since three months ago, but VW has narrowed the gap with Tesla.
Meanwhile Ford has advanced two spots, now standing in 4th, growing share from 5.4% to 6.9%, and Skoda has advanced four spots to 6th, from 4.5% share to 5.7%. BYD and Hyundai have also climbed since three months prior.
Further back, Vauxhall (Opel) has lost more than half of its market share over the past three months, falling from 4.8% to 2.3%, and many of its remaining unit volumes are dual-duty vehicles like the Vivaro and Combo. At the stage I’m not sure if this is just a batch-shipment related dip, or whether Stellantis are indeed slowly withdrawing Opel’s BEVs from the UK market – chime in below if you have insights.
Outlook
July’s weak 9% YoY growth in BEV volume represented a temporary disruption due to government incompetence, and BEVs should soon be back close to their H1 YoY growth rate of 35%.
The UK’s economy is in slightly better shape than some of its neighbours, with (latest) Q1 GDP figures showing 1.3% YoY growth. Inflation grew to 3.6% in June (latest) from 3.4% in May. Interest rates remained flat at 4.25% since early May. Manufacturing PMI lifted slightly to 48.0 points in July, from 47.7 in June.
Which new or incoming BEV models do you expect to outperform in the UK market? Which brands will climb in the second half of the year, and will Tesla stay ahead of VW, or slip behind? Please share your insights and thoughts in the comments below.
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