Temporary Tariff Suspension Between US and China Impacts Equities, Commodities, and Currency Markets
SINGAPORE, Aug. 15, 2025 /PRNewswire/ — ELD Asset Management assesses that the ongoing US-China tariff truce, now well into its 90-day window and set to conclude on 10 November 2025, continues to influence markets at a pivotal stage in the trading calendar. Sectors exposed to cross-border flows, from consumer electronics to industrial commodities, are operating within a defined tariff framework during the pre-Christmas period, providing a clearer horizon for allocation decisions and hedging strategies.
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Jason Harrison, Senior Vice President at ELD Asset Management, commented: “This window allows investors to make calculated portfolio adjustments while keeping an eye on unresolved trade risks.”
Asian equity markets have sustained momentum, with Japanese indices reaching record levels and US technology and consumer shares advancing on improved sentiment. According to Harrison, exporters with strong pricing power and diversified supply chains may be positioned to capture benefits in this environment. The truce presents opportunities but leaves trade risk in play, prompting balanced positioning to benefit from current stability while preserving downside protection.
The timing coincides with peak holiday import demand, allowing U.S. retailers to secure inventory under current tariff conditions rather than potentially higher rates previously indicated. Freight operators have reported more consistent booking patterns, while industry modelling projects a limited global trade contraction of 0.65% in 2025. However, Chinese exports to the U.S. may still experience an annualised decline of up to 19% if ongoing negotiations do not result in a resolution.
Harrison noted: “Trade flow resilience during this season reduces cost pressures for importers and maintains consumer supply continuity.”
In energy markets, Brent crude traded near USD 68.77 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate at USD 65.71 (ICE Futures data, 13 August 2025), influenced more by seasonal demand and inventory builds than trade policy. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects US crude output at a record 13.41 million barrels per day this year, easing in 2026, while OPEC has raised its 2026 demand growth forecast to 1.38 million barrels per day.
Harrison observed: “Short-term softness in upstream margins does not diminish potential opportunities in downstream operations if freight and industrial activity rebounds.”
Geopolitical risks persist. The White House has framed the truce as a temporary measure intended to facilitate further negotiations; however, the potential for secondary sanctions on purchasers of Russian crude remains. Historical data indicates that equity markets have typically declined by approximately 1% per month during prolonged periods of political tension, with emerging markets exhibiting greater susceptibility. These trends continue to underscore the relevance of maintaining liquidity reserves.
Bond markets are currently pricing in a high probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September. Yields on ten-year U.S. Treasuries have declined, and credit spreads have narrowed from their early August levels. ELD Asset Management maintains a position favouring selective duration extension while preserving flexibility to adjust allocations should monetary policy outcomes differ from prevailing expectations.
For the remainder of this period, preferred allocations include high-quality exporters, logistics providers, integrated energy majors with resilient downstream performance, and short-to-intermediate duration credit. Elevated cash and short-dated Treasuries remain in place to guard against a breakdown in negotiations.
Harrison concluded: “The pause creates tactical openings, but the lack of resolution on core disputes means assumptions of a lasting settlement would be premature.”
About ELD Asset Management
Established in 2017, ELD Asset Management Pte. Ltd. (UEN: 201725839Z) provides clients with strategic investment advice informed by comprehensive macroeconomic and market analysis. The firm continuously tracks global economic developments, enabling investors to anticipate opportunities and align portfolios to long-term objectives.
Further commentary and research updates: https://www.eldglobal.com/news/
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This press release contains forward-looking statements, which reflect the current views of ELD Asset Management regarding future events, market conditions, and potential investment scenarios. These statements are based on current assumptions and involve risks, uncertainties, and other factors that may cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or
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