Survey participants with a positive view of the economy rose to 34% from 27% last quarter
Recession and inflation fears remain strong
Hiring outlook is stable
NEW YORK, Sept. 4, 2025 /PRNewswire/ — Business executives have a slightly improved view of the economy but continue to be wary of inflation and tariff impacts, according to the third-quarter AICPA and CIMA Economic Outlook Survey. The survey polls chief executive officers, chief financial officers, controllers and other CPAs in U.S. companies who hold executive and senior management accounting roles.
A little more than a third (34%) of business executives expressed optimism in the U.S. economy’s outlook over the next 12 months, up from 27% in the past quarter. This quarter’s measure is significantly lower than the post-election high of 67% in the fourth quarter last year but remains higher than the third quarter a year ago, when it stood at 26%.
Uncertainty about inflation and tariff schedules continues to color the views of business executives, with 54 percent saying they expect a recession either this year or next. That’s an improvement from last quarter, when 61% held that view. Inflation displaced “domestic economic conditions” as the top concern of survey participants.
While down from 67% last quarter, a majority (58%) of business executives continue to report moderate to significant uncertainty in business planning due to changing tariff schedules.
Their companies’ main responses so far:
Raising prices (30%)
Reducing operating costs (24%)
Exploring different supply chain options (23%)
“Survey participants noted some positives, such as pro-business provisions in the recently enacted H.R. 1 and more favorable regulatory policies under the current administration,” said Tom Hood, CPA, CGMA, CITP, executive vice president of business engagement and growth at the Association of International Certified Professional Accountants, the alliance formed by AICPA and CIMA. “But volatility in trade policy continues to pose planning challenges. With tariff effects still playing out, the next quarter could prove pivotal in shaping economic sentiment.”
The AICPA survey is a forward-looking indicator that tracks hiring and business-related expectations for the next 12 months. In comparison, the U.S. Department of Labor’s August employment report, scheduled for release tomorrow, looks back on the previous month’s hiring trends.
Other key findings of the survey:
Hiring remains stable overall but shows some changes at the margins. Sixteen percent of business executives say they are looking to hire new employees immediately, up two percentage points from last quarter. Fourteen percent said they had too many employees, up from 12% last quarter.
Profit and revenue growth both rebounded slightly. Projected revenue growth for the next 12 months is now expected to be 1.5%, the same as a year ago and a 0.5 percentage point increase from last quarter. Profit expectations, negative last quarter, are now expected to be just a little more than break-even at 0.1%.
Thirty-seven percent of business executives are favorable about their own organization’s prospects over the next 12 months, the same as last quarter and down four percentage points from a year ago.
Survey takers who expect their businesses to expand over the next 12 months increased three percentage points to 46%, quarter over quarter.
On the list of major issues besides inflation and domestic economic conditions, the top five was rounded out by employee and benefit costs, materials/supplies/equipment costs and domestic political leadership. “Stagnating/declining markets” jumped two spots to No. 7.
Methodology
The third-quarter AICPA and CIMA Economic Outlook Survey was conducted from Aug.5-26, 2025, and included 275 qualified responses from CPAs and Chartered Global Management Accountant (CGMA) designation holders in leadership positions, such as chief financial officer or controller. A copy of the report can be found on aicpa-cima.com.
About the Association of International Certified Professional Accountants, AICPA, and CIMA
The Association of International Certified Professional Accountants (the Association) advances the reputation, employability, and quality of CPAs, CGMA designation holders, and accounting and financial professionals globally. Founded in 2017 by the AICPA and CIMA, it represents 580,000 AICPA and CIMA members, candidates, and registrants in more than 150 countries and territories, advocating for the public interest and business sustainability on current and emerging issues.
SOURCE AICPA & CIMA
