00:00 Jared Blikre
On today’s Stocks and Translation, we are peeking inside the data center and looking for investment opportunities that might be flying under the radar.
00:09 Jared Blikre
First, let’s break down what the data center actually is. It’s compute, plus networks, plus power, plus cooling, plus construction. It’s racks of servers and ultra fast switches, a lot of electricity along with industrial grade air conditioning and all the teams that build it and maintain it 24/7.
00:27 Jared Blikre
And here’s a quick road map to all the components of the data center, from servers and networking, to backup power and electrical distribution, cooling the guts of the servers as well as the rooms, plus engineering and construction to name a few.
00:43 Jared Blikre
Now we’re going to touch on some of these segments with a few charts. We’re starting with the servers because that’s where the AI work gets done.
00:52 Jared Blikre
Dell and HPE are the big diversified box makers selling AI ready racks. Super Micro is a high beta pure server play.
01:00 Jared Blikre
They’re all up more than 60% over the last six months, but Super Micro is down about 5% since the most recent China tariff scare last week, while Dell is only off under 1%.
01:12 Jared Blikre
Now, let’s tackle networking.
01:16 Jared Blikre
At the top is Nvidia. Why is Nvidia under networking? The world’s biggest company is also key in the high-speed networking space as all those chips have to talk to each other.
01:26 Jared Blikre
Arista Networks is up over 90% these six months and is the pure play networking leader in cloud switches.
01:35 Jared Blikre
Cisco is a big diversified giant, only up about 20% in that time frame, but actually slightly positive over the China uh tariff scare, while Nvidia is down about 5% the last few days, which suggests that Nvidia is still levered to China.
01:52 Jared Blikre
As servers get more dense, they give off tremendous heat, so cooling systems are one of the pick and shovel side of the AI trade.
02:01 Jared Blikre
Vertiv touches power and thermal inside the white space and is up 150% over the last half year.
02:08 Jared Blikre
It is the leader of the whole data center pack. Meanwhile, Johnson Controls and Carrier run the chilling towers and system that cool the water that cools the servers.
02:19 Jared Blikre
Carrier is slightly down over the last six months, while JCI up nearly 40%.
02:25 Jared Blikre
Next up are the companies getting electricity from the grid into the racks. Eaton, SPX Tech and Schneider Electric make swi make switch gear, breakers, busways and uninterruptible power systems or UPS.
02:40 Jared Blikre
Both Eaton and SPX Tech are up modestly over the last few days and are up more than 35% over the last six months.
02:49 Jared Blikre
And when the grid cannot keep up, these are your backup engines, keeping those chips crunching numbers.
02:58 Jared Blikre
Industrial heavyweight Caterpillar has been flying since September and is up nearly 80% the last six months.
03:05 Jared Blikre
It’s also up over 6% the last few days as many of its peers have stumbled.
03:11 Jared Blikre
Cummins is another big name, up over 40% the last half year.
03:16 Jared Blikre
And you probably heard of Rolls-Royce Autos, but they’ve also got a power solutions business and that ticker is up about 60% over the last six months.
03:27 Jared Blikre
And we’ll finish here with Jacobs, the engineer that designs and permits as well as train, which is a premium air conditioning name.
03:36 Jared Blikre
They can both signal how healthy big projects are.
03:41 Jared Blikre
So not only are these companies bellweathers of the AI pipelines, they both happen to be up a few percentage points since last week’s China scare.
03:51 Jared Blikre
With earning season upon us, here is what to watch next.
03:56 Jared Blikre
Nvidia’s out November 19th and Arista is reporting November 4th. Aside from the big headline numbers, watch for deeper networking pushes and what it means for orders.
04:05 Jared Blikre
Dell and HPE, they are out late November, early December. Notice if they mention an AI server backlog and what they say about deliveries and margins.
04:15 Jared Blikre
Then on the power front, Vertiv reports October 22nd and ETN on Halloween. Watch for pricing power and lead times. Can they still raise their prices? And what are the lead times?
04:27 Jared Blikre
And sticking with power, Caterpillar is out October 26th and Cummins reports November 6th.
04:34 Jared Blikre
One big question, are data centers still adding backup capacity? Then, what’s the grid strain?
04:41 Jared Blikre
As far as investing goes, it’s always a good idea to only buy what you understand. And remember, this right here is just a quick guide, so do your homework and always match your investments to your risk tolerance.
04:54 Jared Blikre
And tune in to Stocks and Translation podcast for more jargon busting deep dives. New episodes can be found Tuesdays and Thursdays on Yahoo Finance’s website or wherever you find your podcast.