Last week, you might have seen that NIO Inc. (NYSE:NIO) released its quarterly result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 2.2% to US$5.46 in the past week. It was a moderately negative result overall – revenue fell 2.2% short of analyst estimates at CN¥22b, although at least statutory losses were marginally smaller than expected, at CN¥1.51 per share. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company’s performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.
Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from NIO’s 28 analysts is for revenues of CN¥125.9b in 2026. This reflects a sizeable 74% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. The loss per share is expected to greatly reduce in the near future, narrowing 63% to CN¥3.38. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of CN¥127.6b and CN¥3.92 per share in losses. While the revenue estimates were largely unchanged, sentiment seems to have improved, with the analysts upgrading their numbers and making a favorable reduction in losses per share in particular.
View our latest analysis for NIO
There’s been no major changes to the consensus price target of US$6.74, suggesting that reduced loss estimates are not enough to have a long-term positive impact on the stock’s valuation. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so – it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic NIO analyst has a price target of US$9.07 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$4.00. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that NIO is an easy company to value, or – more likely – the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.
Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. The analysts are definitely expecting NIO’s growth to accelerate, with the forecast 55% annualised growth to the end of 2026 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 24% per annum over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 16% annually. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect NIO to grow faster than the wider industry.
The most obvious conclusion is that the analysts made no changes to their forecasts for a loss next year. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$6.74, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year’s earnings. We have estimates – from multiple NIO analysts – going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Even so, be aware that NIO is showing 1 warning sign in our investment analysis , you should know about…
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.