- New data from Brazil, Ghana, India, Indonesia, Nigeria, Philippines, Rwanda, and South Africa show that nuclear – including next-generation SMRs – could deliver up to 20% of electricity generation and lower system costs by up to 31% by 2050 compared to renewables-only pathways.
- Analysis identifies a clear catalytic role for philanthropy in accelerating early-stage adoption of nuclear solutions by supporting setting safety standards, de-risking, civil society engagement, and international cooperation.
NEW YORK, Dec. 4, 2025 /PRNewswire/ — The Rockefeller Foundation today released a new report that examines how next generation nuclear technologies could help emerging economies meet rapidly rising electricity demand and provide communities with clean, reliable, and affordable power. The Role of Nuclear Energy in Powering Universal Energy Abundance for Emerging Economies, takes an evidence-based approach to exploring nuclear deployment across Brazil, Ghana, India, Indonesia, Nigeria, Philippines, Rwanda, and South Africa, which are home to more than 2 billion people and among the fastest-growing energy markets in the world.
The report’s findings suggest that under the right policy and regulatory conditions, nuclear power – including small modular reactors (SMRs) – could play a more meaningful role in these countries’ energy futures than previously assumed, including delivering up to 20% of electricity generation and lowering system costs by up to 31% by 2050, compared to renewables-only pathways.
“The Rockefeller Foundation is committed to building a future of universal energy abundance where everyone has access to resilient, reliable, and affordable electricity,” said Dr. Rajiv J. Shah, President of The Rockefeller Foundation. “As global energy demand grows, it’s never been more urgent to explore new technological pathways for emerging economies to access power and unlock opportunity for their people. This report demonstrates how nuclear energy can play a critical role in meeting that need with clean, continuous power.”
Exploring Nuclear Energy to Scale Clean Power and Energy Abundance
As the role of nuclear in the energy transition has diminished in many national strategies over recent decades, rising energy demand and growing energy security concerns have also led to renewed global interest in nuclear energy as a reliable, non-emitting source of baseload power. At the same time, baseload generation from nuclear power complements renewable resources, helping to balance their intermittent generation and improving grid utilization.
Conducted by Bayesian Energy with support from The Rockefeller Foundation, this new study combines detailed systems modelling with structured qualitative research and expert interviews to assess the potential for nuclear deployment across Brazil, Ghana, India, Indonesia, Nigeria, Philippines, Rwanda, and South Africa. Bayesian, using their proprietary power-system modelling platform Convexity, simulated power system evolution from 2025 to 2050 under multiple scenarios with and without nuclear deployment. Combined with additional qualitative analysis, key findings include, but are not limited to:
- Demonstrating that renewables and nuclear are complementary technologies rather than rivals and that developing both lessens the need to overbuild solar and storage to reach a zero-carbon system.
- Identifying key financial, institutional, and social barriers, as well as enabling factors such as governance capacity, policy design, and coordination mechanisms.
- Adding new, country-specific evidence to help policymakers and partners assess where advanced nuclear solutions could fit within broader strategies for expanding clean, reliable power in EMDEs to meet countries’ industrialization and economic growth objectives and to help people flourish.
- Providing an integrated understanding of the technical feasibility and practical readiness for nuclear deployment across EMDEs.
- Reinforcing the catalytic role that philanthropy could play – despite its historical absence from this sector – in enabling early adoption, including supporting regulatory readiness, strengthening public engagement, facilitating access to international expertise, and helping governments de-risk investment decisions.
- Modeling how nuclear power could supply up to 20% of total power by 2050 in several markets while reducing overall system costs by as much as 31% when paired with ambitious renewable energy expansion.
“Our modelling shows that nuclear can work with renewables and storage, not against them. Pathways with nuclear still rely on major renewable buildouts, but require far less storage and transmission,” said Aman Majid, co-founder of Bayesian Energy. “That means billions of dollars in avoided costs for countries where every dollar counts—along with less land use, fewer transmission lines, and fewer permitting challenges. But those benefits only materialize if nuclear projects can be built on time and on
budget and that’s where the hard work begins.”
The Rockefeller Foundation also convened 19 experts from philanthropy, governments, civil society, and industry to discuss the implications of these findings and potential pathways to scale philanthropic support for nuclear energy in emerging markets and developing economies.
Regional Support:
The eight markets analyzed in the study are among the most promising in Africa, Asia, and Latin America for initiating nuclear deployment by 2030, based on their projected energy demand growth, industrialization trajectories, and existing policy interest in low-carbon technologies.
- “These findings reveal a powerful opportunity for Asia,” said Deepali Khanna, Senior Vice President and Head of Asia at The Rockefeller Foundation. “Nuclear power offers a clean, reliable, and affordable pathway to meeting energy demands while creating jobs and advancing sustainability. Philanthropy can help unlock this potential by supporting responsible expansion of nuclear power generation through strengthening public engagement, advancing regulatory readiness, and de-risking early investments.”
- “Nearly 700 million people today lack access to reliable power, most of them in sub-Saharan Africa. The modelling in this report shows how next-generation nuclear energy could expand energy access on the continent, which is critical for advancing long-term development and improving lives,” said William Asiko, Vice President for Africa at The Rockefeller Foundation. “What’s more, nuclear supports higher-paid, longer-lasting jobs than many other clean energy technologies, making it an opportunity to drive economic growth and expand opportunity for people across Africa.”
- “This report offers valuable insights for strengthening energy security and resilience in emerging economies, highlighting solutions that can be scaled to Latin America and the Caribbean,” said Lyana Latorre, Vice President for Latin America and the Caribbean at The Rockefeller Foundation. “At this time of growing energy demand and climate instability, it is important that we consider every opportunity to ensure reliable, affordable power in Brazil and across the Americas, to unlock economic opportunity and advance well-being for all.”
This report comes just weeks after COP30 in Belém, Brazil, where nuclear energy featured prominently in global climate discussions. A new COP30 “stock-take” from the Clean Air Task Force highlights that the sector’s challenge has shifted from political ambition to the practical ability to finance, regulate, and deploy advanced reactors at speed. Also at COP30, the World Nuclear Association announced the expansion of a global coalition committed to tripling nuclear capacity by 2050, while the IAEA underscored how nuclear science, technology, and energy systems are now firmly embedded in the official climate agenda.
About The Rockefeller Foundation
The Rockefeller Foundation is a pioneering philanthropy built on collaborative partnerships at the frontiers of science, technology, and innovation that enable individuals, families, and communities to flourish. We make big bets to promote the well-being of humanity in food, health, energy, and finance, including through our public charity, RF Catalytic Capital (RFCC). For more information, sign up for our newsletter at www.rockefellerfoundation.org/subscribe and follow us on X @RockefellerFdn and LinkedIn @the-rockefeller-foundation.
