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According to some friends who have the latest “Full Self Driving” (FSD) hardware and V14.2 of the software, the self-driving capabilities are really, really good now. One of those friends has driven more than 1,000 miles without an intervention (something Tesla now shows you on the touchscreen). The other wrote, “And the update after Thanksgiving, I literally don’t have to intervene at all.” I can’t test this version of FSD, because I bought FSD more than 6 years ago and I therefore don’t have the most up-to-date computer in my car. (Early adopter punishment strikes again.)
Combined with Tesla’s robotaxi pilots in Austin and San Francisco, this progress implies that FSD is indeed getting significantly better and could be approaching the point of widespread unsupervised Full Self Driving. Maybe.
At the moment, despite the level FSD is reportedly at, the vast majority of Tesla drivers don’t pay for FSD (88% as far as I’ve seen) — not even with the new(ish) monthly subscription option. The “take rate” among people who were already sold on EVs being better, on Tesla being better, and on a Tesla being the best vehicle to purchase, is just about 12% — after tons of free trials. And, of course, Tesla can’t even maintain sales levels, let alone increase them, so there isn’t high or even notable demand for FSD beyond current owners.
I know my friends and also others who say they use FSD almost all the time. They clearly love it. There is no doubt about that. However, I personally have preferred driving the car myself since a major change to Tesla’s approach several years ago. It’s simply easier to drive the car than: have my foot hover over the pedal in case I need to intervene, deal with slow approaches to turns and stop signs, deal with sudden braking or swerving, cancel lane changes I don’t want to make, cancel navigation choices I don’t want to take, avoid potholes and other small driving unpleasantries, not get in people’s blind spots, follow cars at my preferred distance, slow down for school zones, and not have the situation where my car straddled lane markings in a baffling and dangerous way (which happened twice in recent attempts to try FSD again). However, if the car was really perfectly driving on FSD, maybe I would use it most of the time. But even driving “perfectly” is not nearly enough to stimulate massive demand for the ADAS option in my humble opinion. Only one thing is.
That one thing is Tesla taking liability for the car when it is in FSD mode. If people were genuinely able to do something else while the car drives — sleep, watch a movie, text, enjoy a live sporting event, work, etc. — and the liability in the event of a crash would 100% be put on Tesla, THEN there would be demand for FSD.
The big question is whether Tesla will get to this point soon, or soon-ish. Is this coming in 2026? 2027?
But there are levels to this question. Tesla fans (especially TSLA shareholders) are excited for the time when Tesla can just “flip a switch” and all Tesla vehicles (in the US at least) will be capable of unsupervised full self driving. Millions of Tesla vehicles would thus gain a significant improvement in use and value overnight. Clearly, though, Tesla is not going to be able to activate this in snowy Michigan as soon as it can activate it in dry and sunny California. And what about when it does snow or rain hard in California? What about when there are wildfires? My car was telling me yesterday that I needed to clean the sensors for FSD to work well. I just recently washed my car. Morning and even sun also blinds the sensors at times. Will Tesla cars decide they have to stop operating as true self-driving cars in these moments? How does all of that work with liability and the ability to sleep in your car?
One of our readers, “scott,” posted this comment under Steve’s article: “I will admit I have very limited knowledge of just how autonomous vehicles detect the world around them. However, the recent weather in my part of the world has reminded me of the pleasure of snow, ice and salt spray. My vehicle has been giving me repeated messages about crash avoidance and driver assist options being unavailable because the devices are to clouded over and can not safely operate. My gloves have a tell-tale white stain on the fingers where I stop to clear the camera lens at every stop.
“What happens to an autonomous car in such conditions?”
Indeed. When will Tesla be ready to take on the liability in a climate like that?
By the way, I’m not indicating that I have any idea about this. I am genuinely curious and asking — when will Tesla take liability in different places and scenarios?
Contrary to what has been claimed many times by many people over the past decade — most notably by Tesla CEO Elon Musk — this is certainly not going to happen all at once everywhere. How could it?
Reports regarding V14.2 FSD and the Robotaxi pilots in Austin and San Francisco indicate that we may be getting close to a time when Tesla will take on liability for an accident in certain places and scenarios soon, though. I don’t see how Tesla would be able to tell you that you can text while using FSD or do other things while using FSD (other than monitoring the driving) if it wasn’t taking on the liability in the event of a crash. But when and where will Tesla be willing to take that step?
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