Affordability, lower mortgage rate lock-in and stronger buyer profiles propel Northeast and Midwest metros to lead in annual rankings
Hartford, Conn.; Rochester, N.Y.; and Worcester, Mass., take the top spots
AUSTIN, Texas, Dec. 10, 2025 /PRNewswire/ — Realtor.com®’s annual ranking of the Top Housing Markets for 2026 shows a notable geographic shift from a year ago: while last year’s top metros were concentrated in the South and West, the markets projected to see the strongest combined growth in home sales and prices in 2026 are now overwhelmingly in the Northeast and Midwest. Hartford, Conn., Rochester, N.Y., and Worcester, Mass., lead the 2026 list.
Amid expectations for cooling national price growth and modest mortgage rate relief, buyers are increasingly focused on value. As a result, “refuge markets” are attracting shoppers from larger, high-cost metros seeking relative affordability, more space for the price and greater market stability. The top 10 markets for 2026, in rank order, are: 1) Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford, Conn. 2) Rochester, N.Y. 3) Worcester, Mass.-Conn. 4) Toledo, Ohio 5) Providence-Warwick, R.I.-Mass. 6) Richmond, Va. 7) Grand Rapids-Wyoming, Mich. 8) Milwaukee-Waukesha-West Allis, Wis. 9) New Haven-Milford, Conn., and 10) Pittsburgh. See the full top 100 metro ranking below.
“We expect a more balanced housing market in 2026, leaning slightly in buyers’ favor compared with 2025, as modest improvements in affordability, driven by mortgage rate relief and slower home price growth, give incomes a bit more room to catch up,” said Danielle Hale, chief economist at Realtor.com®. “Our 2026 top housing markets offer better value than nearby high-cost hubs, yet steady demand and persistent inventory shortages keep prices moving upward. For buyers, that can mean more competition and faster price gains. For sellers and homeowners, it signals strong demand or home price appreciation and equity gains.”
Affordable homes and out-of-state buyers drive market interestThe 2026 top markets share several characteristics – relatively affordable homes, limited new construction, lower mortgage lock-in pressure, and older, financially well-qualified households – but their unifying advantage is strong value for buyers. The median list price across the top 10 is $384,000, below the national median of $415,000, making these metros attractive to both first-time buyers and those relocating from higher cost areas.
Out-of-state interest is pronounced in the top 10. In Q3 2025, 40% of listing views in the top markets came from buyers outside the metro, with each drawing heavily from a major hub such as New York, Boston and Washington, D.C – up from 31% before rates rose in early 2022. These smaller, often overlooked, metros are likely providing the right combination of value, stability and space that today’s buyers increasingly prioritize.
Tight inventory and scarce new construction push prices higherInventory remains tight in the top metros, with several markets – Hartford, Conn.; Worcester, Mass.; and New Haven, Conn. – 60% or more below pre-pandemic levels. Even so, list prices in the top 10 remain below regional averages. Scarcity, combined with steady demand, drives faster price growth in these markets than nationally. Nationally, list prices have been essentially flat (-0.2%) compared to 2022; in these “refuge metros,” prices are up 16.3% on average, ranging from 10.6% in Grand Rapids, Mich., to a striking 33.4% in Toledo, Ohio.
All but one of the top metros are in regions with relatively little new construction. Nine of the top 10 have a smaller share of new-construction listings than the national average (Richmond, Va. is the exception). When new homes appear, they are expensive, with premiums on new construction in the top 10 at least double the national average of 10.2 percent.
Low mortgage lock-in and strong buyer profiles support market resilienceMortgage dynamics gives several of the 2026 top markets a built-in advantage with lower “lock-in” pressure. In the most affordable metros – Rochester, N.Y; Toledo, Ohio; and Pittsburgh – today’s buyers would pay 32.5% to 56.4% more in principal and interest than current homeowners, compared with a 73.2% jump nationally. Smaller payment gaps help reduce financial barriers to move and support greater mobility, more listings, and higher transaction volumes. Additionally, many owners in these markets own their homes outright, without a mortgage, which insulates them from higher rates and keeps activity robust.
Mortgage data also shows buyers in the top 10 markets are better positioned: 742 FICO vs. 737 nationally, 15.7% down vs. 14.6%, and 74% of loans conforming vs. 58% nationally. This combination of stronger credit, more equity and lower-risk loan types makes these markets more resilient and positions them for some of the fastest combined price and sales growth in 2026.
Mature, stable households and older, smaller homes help sustain pricesResidents in the top markets are older than the national average, with median ages mostly in the mid-50s. Pittsburgh leads at 57, followed by Providence, R.I; New Haven, Conn.; and Hartford, Conn. at 55, while even the youngest, Grand Rapids, Mich., is 52 – well above the U.S. median of 40. This demographic stability, paired with generally older, smaller homes, reinforces price strength. And while lower mortgage lock-in across several of the top markets can encourage more mobility and support rising prices and sales, these mature household profiles may limit how fully that mobility plays out. The result: prices and transactions climb, but inventory is likely to remain somewhat constrained.
Housing stock in these markets is also older (the national median year built is 1981). Pittsburgh leads with a median home built in 1960, followed by Providence, R.I. (1962), New Haven, Conn. (1964), and Rochester, N.Y. (1966). Eight of the top 10 metros have homes over 60 years old; even the newest, Richmond (1985), is more than 40 years old. Homes are smaller too; half of the top metros feature homes smaller than the national median of 1,834 sq. ft. – Toledo, Ohio (1,561 sq. ft.) and Pittsburgh (1,588 sq. ft.) are the smallest, while Richmond, Va., with its newer stock, is the largest at 1,969 sq. ft., highlighting how newer construction trends toward larger, more modern floor plans.
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2026 Housing Forecast – 100 Largest U.S. Metros |
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(Ranked by expected combined sale and price growth rates) |
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|
Rank |
Metro |
2026 Existing Home |
2026 Existing Home |
Combined 2026 |
|
1 |
7.6 % |
9.5 % |
17.1 % |
|
|
2 |
5.3 % |
10.3 % |
15.5 % |
|
|
3 |
12.6 % |
2.4 % |
15.0 % |
|
|
4 |
-1.2 % |
13.1 % |
11.9 % |
|
|
5 |
7.1 % |
4.1 % |
11.2 % |
|
|
6 |
3.6 % |
6.9 % |
10.6 % |
|
|
7 |
6.9 % |
3.7 % |
10.6 % |
|
|
8 |
3.5 % |
7.0 % |
10.5 % |
|
|
9 |
2.3 % |
7.7 % |
10.0 % |
|
|
10 |
4.0 % |
5.7 % |
9.7 % |
|
|
11 |
7.1 % |
2.2 % |
9.3 % |
|
|
12 |
4.7 % |
4.6 % |
9.3 % |
|
|
13 |
5.1 % |
3.5 % |
8.6 % |
|
|
14 |
3.9 % |
4.6 % |
8.6 % |
|
|
15 |
1.0 % |
6.9 % |
8.0 % |
|
|
16 |
3.3 % |
4.6 % |
7.9 % |
|
|
17 |
-0.2 % |
7.7 % |
7.5 % |
|
|
18 |
0.3 % |
7.2 % |
7.5 % |
|
|
19 |
4.7 % |
2.6 % |
7.3 % |
|
|
20 |
1.7 % |
5.4 % |
7.1 % |
|
|
21 |
0.5 % |
6.3 % |
6.8 % |
|
|
22 |
-5.7 % |
12.4 % |
6.7 % |
|
|
23 |
0.0 % |
6.2 % |
6.2 % |
|
|
24 |
1.8 % |
4.3 % |
6.1 % |
|
|
25 |
0.4 % |
5.6 % |
6.0 % |
|
|
26 |
4.2 % |
1.7 % |
5.8 % |
|
|
27 |
-2.6 % |
8.3 % |
5.7 % |
|
|
28 |
0.6 % |
5.1 % |
5.6 % |
|
|
29 |
2.2 % |
3.1 % |
5.3 % |
|
|
30 |
1.0 % |
4.0 % |
5.0 % |
|
|
31 |
3.8 % |
1.2 % |
5.0 % |
|
|
32 |
2.3 % |
2.6 % |
5.0 % |
|
|
33 |
2.7 % |
2.2 % |
5.0 % |
|
|
34 |
-1.3 % |
6.3 % |
4.9 % |
|
|
35 |
2.1 % |
2.8 % |
4.9 % |
|
|
36 |
8.1 % |
-3.5 % |
4.7 % |
|
|
37 |
-6.2 % |
10.9 % |
4.6 % |
|
|
38 |
2.2 % |
2.3 % |
4.6 % |
|
|
39 |
-2.0 % |
6.3 % |
4.3 % |
|
|
40 |
-0.4 % |
4.6 % |
4.2 % |
|
|
41 |
1.0 % |
2.9 % |
3.9 % |
|
|
42 |
4.2 % |
-0.4 % |
3.8 % |
|
|
43 |
-1.3 % |
5.1 % |
3.8 % |
|
|
44 |
1.8 % |
1.8 % |
3.6 % |
|
|
45 |
2.5 % |
0.9 % |
3.4 % |
|
|
46 |
-4.1 % |
7.5 % |
3.4 % |
|
|
47 |
2.3 % |
0.7 % |
3.0 % |
|
|
48 |
-1.2 % |
4.2 % |
3.0 % |
|
|
49 |
-3.6 % |
6.6 % |
3.0 % |
|
|
50 |
3.7 % |
-0.8 % |
2.9 % |
|
|
51 |
3.1 % |
-0.4 % |
2.7 % |
|
|
52 |
4.9 % |
-2.3 % |
2.6 % |
|
|
53 |
-2.3 % |
4.4 % |
2.1 % |
|
|
54 |
-2.1 % |
4.0 % |
1.9 % |
|
|
55 |
-0.2 % |
1.9 % |
1.7 % |
|
|
56 |
-4.4 % |
5.8 % |
1.4 % |
|
|
57 |
1.5 % |
-0.2 % |
1.3 % |
|
|
58 |
-4.4 % |
5.2 % |
0.8 % |
|
|
59 |
0.0 % |
0.7 % |
0.7 % |
|
|
60 |
0.4 % |
0.2 % |
0.6 % |
|
|
61 |
1.6 % |
-1.0 % |
0.6 % |
|
|
62 |
-5.1 % |
5.7 % |
0.6 % |
|
|
63 |
-6.4 % |
6.6 % |
0.2 % |
|
|
64 |
-1.4 % |
1.5 % |
0.1 % |
|
|
65 |
-3.2 % |
3.1 % |
0.0 % |
|
|
66 |
2.5 % |
-2.5 % |
-0.1 % |
|
|
67 |
-3.2 % |
3.1 % |
-0.1 % |
|
|
68 |
-0.6 % |
0.4 % |
-0.2 % |
|
|
69 |
-4.3 % |
3.5 % |
-0.8 % |
|
|
70 |
-2.4 % |
1.1 % |
-1.3 % |
|
|
71 |
-2.5 % |
0.6 % |
-1.8 % |
|
|
72 |
1.5 % |
-3.3 % |
-1.9 % |
|
|
73 |
-1.5 % |
-0.5 % |
-2.0 % |
|
|
74 |
-2.5 % |
0.2 % |
-2.3 % |
|
|
75 |
-6.4 % |
3.9 % |
-2.5 % |
|
|
76 |
-3.5 % |
0.5 % |
-3.0 % |
|
|
77 |
-4.9 % |
1.3 % |
-3.6 % |
|
|
78 |
-5.4 % |
1.8 % |
-3.6 % |
|
|
79 |
-3.5 % |
-0.1 % |
-3.7 % |
|
|
80 |
-0.5 % |
-3.6 % |
-4.1 % |
|
|
81 |
-7.0 % |
2.8 % |
-4.2 % |
|
|
82 |
-7.6 % |
3.3 % |
-4.3 % |
|
|
83 |
-4.2 % |
-0.4 % |
-4.6 % |
|
|
84 |
-6.1 % |
1.1 % |
-5.0 % |
|
|
85 |
-7.0 % |
2.0 % |
-5.0 % |
|
|
86 |
-8.1 % |
3.1 % |
-5.0 % |
|
|
87 |
-4.7 % |
-0.9 % |
-5.7 % |
|
|
88 |
-7.1 % |
1.1 % |
-6.0 % |
|
|
89 |
-7.7 % |
1.8 % |
-6.0 % |
|
|
90 |
-4.7 % |
-1.6 % |
-6.3 % |
|
|
91 |
-2.9 % |
-3.4 % |
-6.3 % |
|
|
92 |
-10.9 % |
4.4 % |
-6.5 % |
|
|
93 |
-3.1 % |
-3.6 % |
-6.8 % |
|
|
94 |
-13.6 % |
5.9 % |
-7.7 % |
|
|
95 |
-4.4 % |
-3.7 % |
-8.1 % |
|
|
96 |
0.8 % |
-8.9 % |
-8.1 % |
|
|
97 |
-6.9 % |
-1.4 % |
-8.3 % |
|
|
98 |
-5.7 % |
-4.1 % |
-9.8 % |
|
|
99 |
-10.8 % |
0.7 % |
-10.1 % |
|
|
100 |
-0.8 % |
-10.2 % |
-11.0 % |
|
MethodologyThe Realtor.com® model-based forecast uses data on the housing market and overall economy to estimate 2026 values for these variables for the 100 largest U.S. metropolitan statistical areas by household size. These markets are then ranked by combined forecasted growth in home prices and sales. Results are calculated to three decimal places and ranked at this degree of specificity, there were no ties. For publication, results are rounded to one decimal place, and this can result in minor differences between the rounded and unrounded sums.
About Realtor.com®Realtor.com® pioneered online real estate and has been at the forefront for over 25 years, connecting buyers, sellers, and renters with trusted insights, professional guidance and powerful tools to help them find their perfect home. Recognized as the No. 1 site trusted by real estate professionals, Realtor.com® is a valued partner, delivering consumer connections and a robust suite of marketing tools to support business growth. Realtor.com® is operated by News Corp [Nasdaq: NWS, NWSA] [ASX: NWS, NWSLV] subsidiary Move, Inc.
Media contact: Sara Wiskerchen, [email protected]
SOURCE Realtor.com
