00:07 Speaker A
America loves a comeback story. So on today’s stocks and translation, we are breaking down 11 2025 S&P 500 winners for you, but the twist is, many of these are still working their way back from pretty deep holes.
00:20 Speaker A
Methodology wise, we took all the S&P 500 names that were down at least 25% in 2024 and up at least 25% this year. And we discovered a few themes to track for next year.
00:33 Speaker A
First, let’s look at the comeback leaderboard and it is a wild mix here. Here we have the first six names sorted by 2025 returns beginning with Paramount Skydance.
00:44 Speaker A
You can see it in blue and it was down about 30% in 2024, and the orange bar is showing it’s up 25% this year. It’s merger drama this year is ongoing, and we’re going to get into all the company stories in a minute.
00:57 Speaker A
For now, just note the mix of industries from auto parts supplier Aptiv, steel company Nucor, well-known luxury brand Estee Lauder, chemical company Albemarle, critical for lithium production, and animal health and testing company, Idexx Labs, which is up nearly 70% this year.
01:17 Speaker A
And in the second group of names, we’ve got America’s largest military ship builder on the left, Huntington Ingalls. It’s up a cool 70% year to date. Then discount store Dollar Tree, followed by pharmacy giant CVS Health, chipmaker Intel, which is up 80% this year, along with another discount name, Dollar General.
01:39 Speaker A
Now, let’s look at all of these names together in a heat map. And we have all of these set for year-to-date returns.
01:49 Speaker A
And a quick note first, most of these names are still down over the last two years, with the exception of CVX, Dollar General, Idexx, and Huntington.
01:59 Speaker A
So, let’s talk about some of these stories. First up, we got Intel. Now, this company is up 81% and it’s the child the poster child for a comeback that’s still not fixed.
02:10 Speaker A
Because you had a really tough 2024, then a monster move over the last few months, and I’m going to show the year to date here, but over the last two years, still underwater.
02:20 Speaker A
So the 2026 question is simple. Can this turnaround turn into execution, products, manufacturing, and proof, not just headlines.
02:30 Speaker A
Next up, we have CVS, up 74% this year. It’s a great example of a stock that got punished on a fundamental problem, medical costs and guidance drama.
02:41 Speaker A
And then it got a relief rally when the story stabilized. Year to date, it’s up big, but over two years, it’s basically a small gain.
02:50 Speaker A
For 2026, CVS is a market signal for healthcare cost inflation. And if that trend gains steam again, it can hit more than just this one stock.
03:01 Speaker A
Next up, we have Dollar General, DG, up 81%. This is your consumer mood ring. It’s up huge this year and it’s also slightly positive over the last two years.
03:12 Speaker A
The 2026 tell is whether margins hold up when promotions shrink and cost pressures, they start pushing back. Because when value retailers get squeezed, the rest of consumer land can feel it too.
03:25 Speaker A
Now on to Paramount Skydance. That’s up 26% this year. And the story here is deal drama, transition, and then a fresh rerate on a new company narrative.
03:36 Speaker A
It’s up this year, but very volatile and now sits in the red over two years. So the market is interested, but it’s needing a resolution on who finally owns this company and some other things.
03:47 Speaker A
So 2026 is about whether they can execute on the new plan without all the old problems creeping back in.
03:55 Speaker A
Finally, our smallest company here, Huntington Ingalls. This is the sneaky one that adds some spice because it’s not a retail or a tech story. It is a throughput story.
04:05 Speaker A
It was up strong in 2025 and also up about 27% over the last two years. For 2026, next year, the big question is whether they can turn backlog into deliveries and whether labor and supply constraints get better or they stay sticky, which matters well beyond the defense industry.
04:20 Speaker A
Now, let’s talk about what to watch based on this 2026 list, and we got a few themes here. Think of this as an early warning dashboard for the broader market.
04:30 Speaker A
The first category to pay attention to is guidance credibility. Watch CVS, Dollar General, Intel and Paramount. If these companies can hold guidance or raise it, it’s a signal that demand and costs, they’re behaving.
04:44 Speaker A
If they start walking it back, well, that’s often how earnings season starts going sideways. Then we have margin durability. Watch Dollar General, Dollar Tree, Estee Lauder, CVS, and Nucor.
04:57 Speaker A
Margins are where all the real world stuff shows up first, discounts, wages, input costs, and margin surprises can move the entire tone of the market real fast.
05:08 Speaker A
Next up, we have consumer stress and trade down. Here, watch the same basket of as above, except take out Nucor. Because when value stores are booming and discretionary categories are on the back foot, that is a different economy than when everybody’s spending like it’s peak pandemic stimmy time.
05:25 Speaker A
This group helps you see that shift in real time. And finally, last on the list, we have cyclical pricing and the real economy pulse. And for this, we’re going to watch Nucor and Albemarle.
05:37 Speaker A
Steel and lithium can be messy, but they’re useful because when those cycles turn, they often tell you whether growth expectations are heating up or cooling off. So all in all, while these are the comebacks of 2025, next year is about which ones can prove that it’s been more than a technical bounce.
05:54 Speaker A
And tune in to the Stocks in Translation podcast for more jargon busting deep dives. New episodes can be found Tuesdays and Thursdays on Yahoo Finance’s website or wherever you find your podcast.