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I had totally forgotten about this quote, but thanks to a reader, we’ve got a wild prediction to check regarding 2025.
This prediction isn’t from November 2019 when Tesla unveiled the Tesla Cybertruck. It wasn’t from five years ago. It wasn’t from four years ago. Just two years and a quarter ago, Elon Musk said the following:
“If you say, ‘well, where will things end up?’ I think we’ll end up with roughly a quarter-million Cybertrucks a year. And I don’t think we’re going to reach that output rate next year. I think we’ll probably reach it sometime in 2025. That’s my best guess.”
That’s a production and sales rate of 250,000 Cybertrucks a year.
I don’t have to tell you that the company is far, far from that forecast. The commenter who brought this quote back up posted a graphic that I’ll share in a moment on the Cybertruck’s cumulative sales. But, first, earlier today when I covered Tesla’s official sales report, I had to consider what share of “Other Models” was Cybertruck sales. Even if all of those sales were Cybertruck sales, that would be 11,642 deliveries in the 4th quarter and 50,850 across the whole year. Of course, all of those sales were not Cybertruck sales. “Other Models” includes the Tesla Model S and Tesla Model X.
Later this month, I’ll have a better estimate for the Cybertruck’s sales, but for now I estimated that about 2,000 units were delivered in the 4th quarter. I figured the Model S and Model X sold better, because after initial superfan interest in the Cybertruck, I just don’t think a lot of consumers are attracted to the vehicle. Across the full year, that would put the Cybertruck at 17,012 deliveries.
This is shocking compared to the forecast from just over two years ago. Around 17,000 sales is 233,000 sales below Elon Musk’s forecast of a quarter-million. Have you ever seen a bigger gap between a car company CEO’s expectations for a model two years in advance and its eventual performance? That’s an insane miss.
Below is the graphic the commenter shared. Just note that it has cumulative Cybertruck sales at nearly 50,000, whereas my estimate at the moment has it at 43,022. In any case, the actual figure — whatever it is — is ridiculously, insanely lower than what Elon Musk was apparently expecting.
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