Advisors’ M&A Outlook Remains Strong for 2026 Despite Rising Geopolitical and Macroeconomic Headwinds
BOSTON, Jan. 29, 2026 /PRNewswire/ — Capstone Partners, a leading middle market investment banking firm, in conjunction with its partner IMAP, a leading global investment banking advisory firm, released its annual Trends in Global M&A Survey Report, with insights from M&A advisors across the world. This report combines Capstone’s in-depth investment banking knowledge with proprietary data obtained from 106 participating IMAP merger and acquisition (M&A) advisors across 54 countries. Conducted between November 10, 2025, and November 24, 2025, the survey captures sentiment at a pivotal moment in global middle market M&A, providing insight into M&A market activity throughout 2025 and anticipated dealmaking conditions in 2026.
Key Findings:
On a global basis, advisors ranked the geopolitical environment as the most likely factor to impact their clients’ business operations in 2026. This marks a stark contrast to previous survey studies, where advisors ranked inflation as the largest influence on client operations for three consecutive years between 2022 and 2024.
As uncertainty around trade and macroeconomic volatility continues to settle, the vast majority (72.6%) of advisors surveyed expect M&A deal flow to increase in 2026. While this marks a 6.4% decline year-over-year (YOY), investment bankers’ optimism for M&A activity has largely persisted.
While interest rate cuts in Europe, North America and parts of Asia throughout 2024 and 2025 have largely kept investment bankers’ private equity (PE) M&A outlook elevated for 2026—with the lion’s share (45.3%) of total investment bankers surveyed expecting sponsor dealmaking to increase in 2026—recent trade policy volatility has seen this figure decline 5.7% compared to 2025 expectations.
Several external factors are slated to continue challenging the global M&A market, with most (56.6%) advisors ranking market volatility/economic uncertainty as the top factor expected to delay or inhibit deal closings in 2026. Notably, 40.6% of advisors also cited trade uncertainty/tariff policies as a leading external element to curb M&A in 2026.
Due to recent trade policy volatility and subsequent supply chain bottlenecks, advisors expect global expansion (+7.8% YOY) and vertical integration (+5.1% YOY) deals to gain traction in 2026. In contrast, expectations for recapitalizations (-12% YOY) and capital raises (-10.7% YOY) have fallen amid advisors’ expectations that M&A deal activity will improve throughout 2026.
Buyers have become increasingly selective in their M&A pursuits, prioritizing target companies with robust financial visibility. Of note, 66% of total investment bankers surveyed indicated that recurring revenue will be the most important characteristic to acquirers in 2026.
Roughly a quarter (25.5%) of advisors anticipate M&A transaction multiples in 2026 to moderately rise compared to 2025. However, most (66%) advisors foresee little to no change in M&A multiples in 2026.
Advisors identified realistic deal valuations as the most prominent element expected to help sellers achieve a successful M&A transaction in 2026. This represents a close alignment with the nearly half (48.1%) of advisors anticipating excessive valuation expectations to hinder deal closings in 2026.
Through this research, Capstone Partners and IMAP have tracked notable impacts on the global M&A market, current economic environment, as well as M&A advisors’ expectations on pricing trends and regional opportunities and risks moving forward into 2026.The report also provides an analysis of sell-side M&A considerations for middle market business owners looking to pursue a liquidity event.
To access the full report including a breakout of the results by industry and region, click here.
ABOUT CAPSTONE PARTNERS
For over 20 years, the firm has been a trusted advisor to leading middle market companies, offering a fully integrated range of investment banking and financial advisory services uniquely tailored to help owners, investors, and creditors through each stage of the company’s lifecycle. Capstone’s services include M&A advisory, debt and equity placement, corporate restructuring, special situations, valuation and fairness opinions and financial advisory services. Headquartered in Boston, the firm has 175+ professionals in multiple offices across the U.S. With 12 dedicated industry groups, Capstone delivers sector-specific expertise through large, cross-functional teams. Capstone is a subsidiary of Huntington Bancshares Incorporated (NASDAQ:HBAN). For more information, visit www.capstonepartners.com.
ABOUT IMAP
IMAP is an International Mergers and Acquisitions Partnership with a 50-year track record, more than 450 M&A professionals worldwide and a presence in 51 countries. IMAP has closed over 2,200 transactions valued at $130 billion in the last 10 years and is consistently ranked in the world’s Top 10 M&A advisors (Refinitiv) for mid-market transactions. For more information, visit www.imap.com.
SOURCE Capstone Partners
