Chinese carmakers are expected to cash in on Britain’s net zero mandate after it emerged that major manufacturers will have to pay rivals to avoid fines.
Eight carmakers including Jaguar Land Rover and Toyota did not sell enough electric cars or low-emission vehicles last year to meet government mandates, according to an industry analysis.
Four of them – Suzuki, Nissan, Mazda and Honda – are far enough behind the target that they will have to acquire “credits” from companies that have significantly exceeded the targets.
Those in the best position to sell credits include manufacturers that sell large numbers of electric vehicles such as Tesla, Chinese champion BYD and Polestar and MG, owned by China’s Geely and SAIC respectively.
Car industry experts have criticised the mandate as “subsidising” the Chinese industry since many manufacturers importing from China are selling exclusively electric vehicles (EV), so have a surplus of credits to offload.
The zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) mandate, brought in by the Conservatives and modified by Labour last year, requires a proportion of each manufacturer’s cars each year to be electric. It rises every year from 22pc in 2024 to 80pc in 2030.
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Manufacturers receive allowances helping them make up the target for selling low-emission cars such as hybrids. Others will be able to “borrow” against future years in the expectation that they will surpass the target towards the end of the decade.
However, borrowing against future years is capped – meaning those far enough below the target will have to acquire credits to avoid fines of £12,000 per vehicle below the target.
Last year, when the target was 28pc, almost all carmakers missed the quota purely on the basis of EV sales alone, according to a report from the non-profit Transport & Environment group.
While several were able to make it up with low-emission credits, Hyundai, Stellantis, Toyota and JLR would have to borrow against future EV sales. Suzuki, Nissan, Mazda and Honda will have to acquire credits even after maxing out borrowing against future years.
Between them, the four Japanese manufacturers are 4,273 vehicles behind the target, according to the analysis – and so could risk fines of around £50m collectively if they fail to acquire credits.
Tim Dexter, of Transport & Environment, said manufacturers might acquire credits through production or licensing deals with other carmakers.
Nissan, for example, has pooled credits with Renault to avoid EU fines in the past. Last year, Nissan struck a similar deal with BYD.
Matthias Schmidt, an independent automotive analyst, said: “Tesla, Volvo, Polestar and Chinese manufacturers such as BYD are likely to be the biggest beneficiaries of this as the companies that have most exceeded the target.”
Nissan, which is manufacturing its new Leaf EV in the UK, has argued that the ZEV mandate is outdated and fails to take into account slowing EV demand. Suzuki has discontinued certain models in the UK in an attempt to get close to the targets.
The four manufacturers were contacted for comment.
A Department for Transport spokesman said: “Our Electric Car Grant has helped over 50,000 drivers go electric and save up to £3,750 off the price of a new EV – helping families keep more of their cash whilst also helping industry to hit their sales targets.
“We’re supercharging the UK’s charging network by backing councils to install 100,000 more public charge points and cutting the cost of installing home chargers.
“Industry is on track to meet their EV targets and last year we introduced flexibilities so manufacturers can meet these in multiple ways, not just through sales.”