Services PMI® at 64%; May 2021 Services ISM® Report On Business®

Business Activity Index at 66.2%; New Orders Index at 63.9%; Employment Index at 55.3%; Supplier Deliveries Index at 70.4%

TEMPE, Ariz., June 3, 2021 /PRNewswire/ — Economic activity in the services sector grew in May for the 12th month in a row, say the nation’s purchasing and supply executives in the latest Services ISM^® Report On Business^®.

The report was issued today by Anthony Nieves, CPSM, C.P.M., A.P.P., CFPM, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management^® (ISM^®) Services Business Survey Committee: “The Services PMI^® reached another all-time high in May, registering 64 percent, which is 1.3 percentage points higher than April’s reading of 62.7 percent. The previous record high was 63.7 percent in March. The May reading indicates the 12th straight month of growth for the services sector, which has expanded for all but two of the last 136 months.

“The Supplier Deliveries Index registered 70.4 percent, up 4.3 percentage points from April’s reading of 66.1 percent. (Supplier Deliveries is the only ISM^® Report On Business^® index that is inversed; a reading of above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries, which is typical as the economy improves and customer demand increases.) The Prices Index registered 80.6 percent, which is 3.8 percentage points higher than the April reading of 76.8 percent, indicating that prices increased in May, and at a faster rate. The last time the Prices Index was this elevated was when it registered 77.4 percent in July 2008; the all-time high is 83.5 percent in September 2005.

“According to the Services PMI^®, all 18 services industries reported growth. The composite index indicated growth for the 12th consecutive month after a two-month contraction in April and May 2020. There was continued growth in the services sector in May. The rate of expansion is very strong, as businesses have reopened and production capacity has increased. However, some capacity constraints, material shortages, weather-related delays, and challenges in logistics and employment resources continue,” says Nieves.

INDUSTRY PERFORMANCE

The 18 services industries reporting growth in May — listed in order — are: Retail Trade; Wholesale Trade; Construction; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Transportation & Warehousing; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Mining; Finance & Insurance; Management of Companies & Support Services; Utilities; Other Services; Information; Accommodation & Food Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Public Administration; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; and Educational Services.

WHAT RESPONDENTS ARE SAYING

• “Stimulus money, increased vaccinations, increased dining capacity and pent-up demand are driving a fast recovery for dine-in restaurants — and all consumer segments, it seems — resulting in labor shortages and supply chain gaps.” [Accommodation & Food Services]
• “Container delays are impacting our supply chain in a significant way. Delays as the Port of Montreal and West Coast ports have impacted our ability to provide products in growing season. Truck availability has generally been tighter than normal. We’ve seen a real impact in the southeastern market.” [Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting]
• “Business continues to improve, and we have worked through many of the supply chain disruptions at this time. We have begun to return to work at our corporate office on a limited basis.” [Arts, Entertainment & Recreation]
• “We are still busy and adding employees. One of the biggest concerns now is shortages of crucial material and equipment. Metal coils for production are especially scarce. Equipment and material suppliers have been raising prices since the first of the year. We hear of a new increase almost daily.” [Construction]
• “We anticipated the reopening reasonably well but were caught off guard with respect to some materials. Steel and copper went higher than anticipated, and shortages are having an impact.” [Finance & Insurance]
• “As the vaccination rate continues to climb and the coronavirus (COVID-19) infection rate continues to plummet, business conditions are steadily improving: Strong revenue performance is returning, and outlooks are improving. Some supply categories remain constrained (nitrile gloves, sterile wrap and the like), remain constrained yet are somewhat manageable, limiting the impact to daily operations.” [Health Care & Social Assistance]
• “(We are) seeing cost increases and long lead times with steel and steel containers. Worker shortages, temp labor and the like.” [Management of Companies & Support Services]
• “Transportation, labor, steel and general commodities are all increasing (in price) based upon general inflation and the rising price of oil.” [Mining]
• “Small businesses in the area are reporting stimulus checks and extension of unemployment are hampering their ability to hire workers. Seasonal labor and H-2B (visa) workers are in very short supply, causing an uptick in cost per hour. Some employers are reporting they are offering cash incentives of (US)$50 if you show up for an interview.” [Professional, Scientific & Technical Services]
• “Business is very strong, and customer orders continue to increase at a rapid pace. Material shortages, increased prices and qualified personnel shortages are becoming a much larger concern.” [Real Estate, Rental & Leasing]
• “Very concerned about the rapid and continuing price escalations for any products with copper, steel, and polyvinyl chloride (PVC). Production issues and lead-time extensions are not improving.” [Retail Trade]
• “Business is doing good, exceeding sales target, but we have challenging issues with (1) increases in raw-materials costs and freight rates, (2) huge freight delays from overseas and (3) continued U.S. port delays. The (COVID-19 surges) in India and Taiwan are also causing delays on product availability/shipments.” [Wholesale Trade]

Services ISM^® Report On Business^® data is seasonally adjusted for the Business Activity, New Orders, Prices and Employment indexes. Manufacturing ISM^® Report On Business^® data is seasonally adjusted for New Orders, Production, Employment and Inventories indexes.

**Number of months moving in current direction.

COMMODITIES REPORTED UP/DOWN IN PRICE, AND IN SHORT SUPPLY

Commodities Up in Price

Aluminum Products (2); Beef; Chicken; Computer Products; Construction Materials (3); Copper; Copper Wire (2); Corn; Corrugated Boxes (2); Diesel (6); Electrical Components (4); Electronic Components (2); Equipment; Exam Gloves; Food; Freight; Fuel (5); Gasoline (6); Gasoline-Related Products; Integrated Circuits; Labor (6); Labor — Construction (3); Labor — Skilled; Labor — Temporary (5); Logistics Services; Lumber (5); Lumber Products; Maintenance Services; Metal Products; Nitrile Gloves (2); Oriented Strand Board (OSB) (6); Packaging Materials; Pallets; Pharmaceuticals; Plastic Products; Plywood; Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) (2); Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) Products (9); Resin Products (5); Rubber-Based Products; Steel (9); Steel — Carbon; Steel Products (5); Transportation; and Trucking Services.

Commodities Down in Price

No commodities are reported down in price.

Commodities in Short Supply

Ammunition; Chicken; Chicken Wings; Computer Hardware; Construction Contractors (8); Construction Subcontractors; Electrical Components (2); Electronic Components (2); Gloves (6); Labor; Labor — Skilled; Labor — Temporary (5); Lumber (2); Lumber Products; Needles & Syringes (6); Nitrile Gloves (12); Oriented Strand Board (OSB); Personal Protective Equipment (PPE); PPE — Gowns; Pipette (3); Polypropylene; Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) Products (4); Resin-Based Products; Semiconductors (3); Steel; Steel Products (6); and Vehicles.

Note: The number of consecutive months the commodity is listed is indicated after each item.

MAY 2021 SERVICES INDEX SUMMARIES

Services PMI^®

In May, the Services PMI^® registered 64 percent, a 1.3-percentage point increase compared to the April figure of 62.7 percent. This reading indicates the services sector grew for the 12th consecutive month after two months of contraction and 122 months of growth before that. A reading above 50 percent indicates the services sector economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates the services sector is generally contracting.

A Services PMI^® above 49.2 percent, over time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy. Therefore, the May Services PMI^® indicates expansion for a 12th straight month following two months of contraction and a preceding period of 127 months of growth. Nieves says, “The past relationship between the Services PMI^® and the overall economy indicates that the Services PMI^® for May (64 percent) corresponds to a 5.2-percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis.”

SERVICES PMI^® HISTORY

Business Activity

ISM^®‘s Business Activity Index registered 66.2 percent in May, an increase of 3.5 percentage points from the April reading of 62.7 percent. This represents growth for the 12th consecutive month. Comments from respondents include: “Pent-up patient demand for services” and “Increased demand associated with businesses reopening as a result of greater access to COVID-19 vaccinations.”

All 18 industries reporting an increase in business activity for the month of May — listed in order — are: Retail Trade; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Wholesale Trade; Finance & Insurance; Mining; Construction; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Utilities; Transportation & Warehousing; Information; Health Care & Social Assistance; Management of Companies & Support Services; Other Services; Educational Services; Accommodation & Food Services; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; and Public Administration.

New Orders

ISM^®‘s New Orders Index registered 63.9 percent, an increase of 0.7 percentage point from the April reading of 63.2 percent. New orders grew for the 12th consecutive month after two months of contraction and a preceding period of 128 months of expansion. Comments from respondents include: “Increased customer capacity” and “New orders have increased due to pent-up demand coming online.”

All 18 industries reported growth of new orders in May, listed in order: Retail Trade; Wholesale Trade; Finance & Insurance; Transportation & Warehousing; Mining; Construction; Health Care & Social Assistance; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Information; Management of Companies & Support Services; Other Services; Educational Services; Utilities; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Accommodation & Food Services; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; and Public Administration.

Employment

Employment activity in the services sector grew in May for the fifth consecutive month after contracting in December. ISM^®‘s Services Employment Index registered 55.3 percent in May, down 3.5 percentage points from the April reading of 58.8 percent. Comments from respondents include: “Competition for labor continues to intensify due to lack of available talent pool” and “Working to fill vacant positions; difficulty in finding qualified candidates.”

The 10 industries reporting an increase in employment in May — listed in order — are: Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Retail Trade; Construction; Finance & Insurance; Wholesale Trade; Mining; Transportation & Warehousing; Public Administration; and Utilities. The three industries that reported a reduction in employment in May are: Accommodation & Food Services; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; and Educational Services.

Supplier Deliveries

The Supplier Deliveries Index registered 70.4 percent, which is 4.3 percentage points higher than the 66.1 percent reported in April. A reading above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries, while a reading below 50 percent indicates faster deliveries. Comments from respondents include: “Port congestion continues to delay product deliveries” and “Manufacturers continue to indicate capacity, employment and other issues are impacting the demand-versus-supply ratio.”

The 17 industries reporting slower deliveries in May — listed in order — are: Accommodation & Food Services; Management of Companies & Support Services; Wholesale Trade; Transportation & Warehousing; Construction; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Utilities; Other Services; Retail Trade; Mining; Information; Health Care & Social Assistance; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Finance & Insurance; Public Administration; and Educational Services. The only industry reporting faster deliveries in May is Arts, Entertainment & Recreation.

Inventories

The Inventories Index grew in May after contracting in April. The reading of 51.5 percent was a 2.4-percentage point increase from the 49.1 percent reported in April. Of the total respondents in May, 38 percent indicated they do not have inventories or do not measure them. Comments from respondents include: “Longer lead times affecting safety stock” and “Problems with logistics is driving up inventory levels.”

The seven industries reporting an increase in inventories in May — listed in order — are: Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Management of Companies & Support Services; Wholesale Trade; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Mining; Finance & Insurance; and Educational Services.

The six industries reporting a decrease in inventories in May — listed in order — are: Accommodation & Food Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; Public Administration; Information; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; and Utilities.

Prices

Prices paid by service organizations for materials and services increased in May, with the index registering 80.6 percent. The only time the Prices Index has been higher was in September 2005, when it hit 83.5 percent. The May figure is 3.8 percentage points higher than April’s reading of 76.8 percent, which was the highest reading since July 2008 (77.4 percent).

All 18 services industries reported an increase in prices paid during the month of May, listed in order: Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Wholesale Trade; Construction; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Transportation & Warehousing; Accommodation & Food Services; Utilities; Management of Companies & Support Services; Public Administration; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Finance & Insurance; Mining; Other Services; Retail Trade; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Educational Services; Information; and Health Care & Social Assistance.

NOTE: Commodities reported as up in price and down in price are listed in the commodities section of this report.

Backlog of Orders

The ISM^® Services Backlog of Orders Index grew in May for the 11th time in the last 12 months. The index registered 61.1 percent, 5.4 percentage points higher than the 55.7 percent reported in April. Of the total respondents in May, 41 percent indicated they do not measure backlog of orders.

The 12 industries reporting an increase in order backlogs in May — listed in order — are: Accommodation & Food Services; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Transportation & Warehousing; Wholesale Trade; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Finance & Insurance; Retail Trade; Utilities; Public Administration; Construction; Educational Services; and Health Care & Social Assistance. The four industries that reported a decrease in backlogs in May are: Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Mining; Management of Companies & Support Services; and Professional, Scientific & Technical Services.

New Export Orders

Orders and requests for services and other non-manufacturing activities to be provided outside of the U.S. by domestically based companies grew in May for the fourth consecutive month after contracting in January. The New Export Orders Index registered 60 percent in May, which is 1.4 percentage points higher than the 58.6 percent reported in April. Of the total respondents in May, 75 percent indicated they either do not perform, or do not separately measure, orders for work outside of the U.S.

The eight industries reporting an increase in new export orders in May — listed in order — are: Accommodation & Food Services; Transportation & Warehousing; Construction; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Wholesale Trade; Finance & Insurance; and Professional, Scientific & Technical Services. No industry reported a decrease in exports in May. Ten industries reported no change in May.

Imports

The Imports Index grew at a slower rate in May, as it registered 50.4 percent, 5.3 percentage points lower than April’s figure of 55.7 percent. Seventy-six percent of respondents reported that they do not use, or do not track the use of, imported materials.

The five industries reporting an increase in imports for the month of May are: Retail Trade; Wholesale Trade; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Transportation & Warehousing; and Utilities. The five industries reporting a decrease in imports in May are: Other Services; Mining; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Information; and Health Care & Social Assistance. Eight industries reported no change.

Inventory Sentiment

The ISM^® Services Inventory Sentiment Index contracted in May for the second consecutive month, registering 40.5 percent, which is 6.3 percentage points lower than April’s figure of 46.8 percent. This indicates that respondents feel that inventories are too low when correlated to their level of business.

The five industries reporting sentiment that their inventories were too high in May are: Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Health Care & Social Assistance; Utilities; Mining; and Construction. The seven industries reporting a feeling that their inventories were too low in May — listed in order — are: Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Transportation & Warehousing; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Wholesale Trade; Public Administration; Management of Companies & Support Services; and Information. Six industries reported no change in inventory sentiment.

About This Report

DO NOT CONFUSE THIS NATIONAL REPORT with the various regional purchasing reports released across the country. The national report’s information reflects the entire U.S., while the regional reports contain primarily regional data from their local vicinities. Also, the information in the regional reports is not used in calculating the results of the national report. The information compiled in this report is for the month of May 2021.

The data presented herein is obtained from a survey of supply executives in the services sector based on information they have collected within their respective organizations. ISM^® makes no representation, other than that stated within this release, regarding the individual company data collection procedures. The data should be compared to all other economic data sources when used in decision-making.

Data and Method of Presentation

The Services ISM^® Report On Business^® (formerly the Non-Manufacturing ISM^® Report On Business^®) is based on data compiled from purchasing and supply executives nationwide. Membership of the Services Business Survey Committee (formerly Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee) is diversified by NAICS, based on each industry’s contribution to gross domestic product (GDP). The Services Business Survey Committee responses are divided into the following NAICS code categories: Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Mining; Utilities; Construction; Wholesale Trade; Retail Trade; Transportation & Warehousing; Information; Finance & Insurance; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Management of Companies & Support Services; Educational Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Accommodation & Food Services; Public Administration; and Other Services (services such as Equipment & Machinery Repairing; Promoting or Administering Religious Activities; Grantmaking; Advocacy; and Providing Dry-Cleaning & Laundry Services, Personal Care Services, Death Care Services, Pet Care Services, Photofinishing Services, Temporary Parking Services, and Dating Services).

Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month. For each of the indicators measured (Business Activity, New Orders, Backlog of Orders, New Export Orders, Inventory Change, Inventory Sentiment, Imports, Prices, Employment and Supplier Deliveries), this report shows the percentage reporting each response and the diffusion index. Responses represent raw data and are never changed. Data is seasonally adjusted for Business Activity, New Orders, Prices and Employment. All seasonal adjustment factors are subject annually to relatively minor changes when conditions warrant them. The remaining indexes have not indicated significant seasonality.

The Services PMI^® is a composite index based on the diffusion indexes for four of the indicators with equal weights: Business Activity (seasonally adjusted), New Orders (seasonally adjusted), Employment (seasonally adjusted) and Supplier Deliveries. Diffusion indexes have the properties of leading indicators and are convenient summary measures showing the prevailing direction of change and the scope of change. An index reading above 50 percent indicates that the services economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally declining. Supplier Deliveries is an exception. A Supplier Deliveries Index above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries and below 50 percent indicates faster deliveries.

A Services PMI^® above 49.2 percent, over time, indicates that the overall economy, or gross domestic product (GDP), is generally expanding; below 49.2 percent, it is generally declining. The distance from 50 percent or 49.2 percent is indicative of the strength of the expansion or decline.

The Services ISM^® Report On Business^® survey is sent out to Services Business Survey Committee respondents the first part of each month. Respondents are asked to ONLY report on U.S. operations for the current month. ISM^® receives survey responses throughout most of any given month, with the majority of respondents generally waiting until late in the month to submit responses to give the most accurate picture of current business activity. ISM^® then compiles the report for release on the third business day of the following month.

The industries reporting growth, as indicated in the Services ISM^® Report On Business^® monthly report, are listed in the order of most growth to least growth. For the industries reporting contraction or decreases, those are listed in the order of the highest level of contraction/decrease to the least level of contraction/decrease.

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About Institute for Supply Management^®

Institute for Supply Management^® (ISM^®) serves supply management professionals in more than 90 countries. Its 50,000 members around the world manage about US$1 trillion in corporate and government supply chain procurement annually. Founded in 1915 as the first supply management institute in the world, ISM is committed to advancing the practice of supply management to drive value and competitive advantage for its members, contributing to a prosperous and sustainable world. ISM leads the profession through the ISM Report On Business^®, its highly regarded certification programs and the ISM Mastery Model^®. This report has been issued by the association since 1931, except for a four-year interruption during World War II.

The full text version of the Services ISM^® Report On Business^® is posted on ISM^®‘s website at www.ismrob.org on the third business day* of every month after 10:00 a.m. ET.

The next Services ISM^® Report On Business^® featuring June 2021 data will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET on Tuesday, July 6, 2021.

*Unless the New York Stock Exchange is closed.

SOURCE Institute for Supply Management

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