Lagging supply chain: only half of the component manufacturers are working on the electrical system. The powertrain area, where Italy excels, is the one most at risk. Success cases are still limited
by Luca Orlando
(Sergii Chernov – stock.adobe.com)
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Until 2016, zero. Not that the company was doing badly, on the contrary. But until then, the business of stators and rotors, key components for electric motors, had developed elsewhere: in industry, in control systems, in household appliances. Then, five years ago, the car arrived for Eurogroup Laminations.
From then on, for the Milanese group, the effect on the accounts was disruptive, with that solitary order now transformed into multi-year contracts totaling 2.5 billion euros. Placed by the big names of the global car, from Volkswagen to Porsche, from Ford to GM, groups that force the company to continually expand production, making budgets upward from time to time. If in 2020, in any case a year of growth, revenues exceeded 420 million euros, in August 2021 that level has already been reached, framing a year-end target that is close to 600 million euros.
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The rule? Unfortunately not. For our supply chain of automotive-related components, a vast area of 2,200 companies, 160,000 employees and 45 billion in revenues (after the collapse of 5 billion in 2020), the explosive growth of electric motors is currently more of a threat than a ‘chance.
And it could not go otherwise, after all, taking into account that the “pure” electric, without the assistance of a traditional engine in support (in hybrid or plug-in mode) significantly reduces the amount of necessary components, making or almost entire areas of components related to propulsion, transmissions, exhausts.
The Roland Berger study carried out for Anfia is quite eloquent: 85% of the components of the power train section, the one in which about 70 thousand employees are concentrated, almost half of the employees in the sector in Italy, will become obsolete. And not only for the change in terms of propulsion but also for a simple mathematical calculation: overall by moving from traditional models to electric ones, the components needed for a vehicle will drop by almost an order of magnitude, from 1400 to 200.
If some systems in “pure” electric power disappear completely (tank, exhaust pipes, etc.), other traditional components, including cooling and transmission systems, will still have to be radically updated, also taking into account the fact that in hybrid engines the thermal engine is on average smaller in size, thus requiring the redesign of numerous parts.
Non-trivial obstacles and development risks. Because if for Eurogroup, after all, the transition was “smooth”, through a technological and production upgrade grafted on processes and components that were already part of the company’s DNA, for a company that lives on traditional engine heads, or for those who deal with the jets for the exhaust systems, the transition is certainly more difficult.
At a European level, the technology transition will certainly not be painless. BCG estimates that by 2030 the transition to electricity will leave the mass of employees involved in the auto industry substantially unchanged, estimated at 5.6 million units. Stock confirmed, however, between significant opposite flows, with 600 thousand jobs lost due to the transition and the same number gained between recharging systems, batteries, infrastructures, etc. winners and losers.
Slowly forward towards new technologies
Faced with this challenge, how is our supply chain moving? A first order of magnitude is provided by Anfia, a trade association that also groups together the numerous component manufacturers. In the latest evaluations, 30% of the universe (about 600 companies) is considered at risk, the share of companies that, in addition to not making any revenue in this development sector, have not even started research and development projects in this sense.
However, the latest edition of the Observatory on Components highlights an evolving universe. If, in fact, looking at the companies responding to the survey, the percentage of suppliers who describe themselves as positioned in the gasoline and diesel engine sector remains very high (respectively 72.8% and 77.9% of the respondents), the percentage is also significant. of those who are positioned (in addition to the rest) on electrified powertrains, equal to 47.5%. The percentage of component manufacturers who describe themselves as positioned on methane and / or LPG fueling is also consistent (29.7%, on an important internal market, which accounts for around 9% of registrations in addition to conversions of vehicles in circulation).
Worth noting is the figure, to be considered comforting in light of the market trend, of companies that are positioned exclusively on diesel engines, which is equal to 11.2%, therefore not too large. In addition, 6.9% of respondents claiming to be positioned on fuel cells, one of the most promising technologies for the future, should be noted.
However, being positioned does not necessarily mean having products already on the market or realizing a significant share of your business by exploiting the growth of new engines. There are no definitive studies on the subject, only orders of magnitude. The research carried out by Ambrosetti-The European House for Motus-E traces a much narrower perimeter, just 160 companies that have decidedly embarked on this path by arriving on the market, a much smaller universe than the thousand component manufacturers estimated by the Anfia survey.
Those who have done so, in any case, are bringing home interesting results, focusing on new products linked to the explosive demand for alternative engines or on a redesign of current products with a view to further lightening.
Like Cecomp, for example, a Piedmontese manufacturer of bodywork parts who, thanks to its experience in aluminum, has obtained a maxi-order of 25 thousand bodies for the new investment by the Swiss Micro group to build Microlino, the electric heir of the historic Isetta BMW, which seems to have already collected 24 thousand bookings.
“The current contract concerns 25 thousand cars – explains the entrepreneur Gianluca Forneris – and for us the project could be worth as much as 200 million euros. Already next year in the new plant we aim to make 25 cars a day, overall there will be about seventy additional jobs: it is definitely an interesting business ».
Business spaces in the car are also opening up for companies working in the test area, such as Angelantoni. Which just last year through Angelantoni Test Technology won a tender for the supply to BMW of 103 climatic chambers for a value of 8 million euros. Systems used to test batteries in extreme thermal conditions, simulating all the environments in which a car can be found in its life cycle, from the coldest to the hottest ones.
“The orders are arriving even beyond expectations – explains the president Gianluigi Angelantoni – and at the moment we have a backlog that guarantees us even more than a year of work”.
Bonfiglioli is working on gearboxes for vans and sub-compact urban vehicles (city cars), while Ima, after the acquisition of Atop, also operates in the production of machines and automatic lines for the production of stators and rotors for electric motors.
Batteries at year zero (or almost)
The most relevant part of the new business, however, is elsewhere, in the construction of new batteries, an area in which Italy is in the rear. The hopes concern the announced initiatives, such as the Gigafactory in Scarmagno promised by the Swedish entrepreneur Lars Carlstrom, which from 2024 should employ 4 thousand employees.
Or the new investment in Termoli in which Stellantis participates, a site that should host the third European gigafactory of the Acc group and which should therefore redevelop the current engine production plant.
Faam also announced that by the end of the year it will start building lithium cells in the former Indesit factory in Teverola, using 75 former Whirlpool workers on layoffs.
The recharge
Another sector in turmoil concerns the downstream charging infrastructure, where instead there are certainly more opportunities for our companies than risks, taking into account the fact that the Italian network does not shine for widespread diffusion: we are only seventh in Europe according to the data. Acea, with 5 recharging points for every 100 km of roads.
Abb has started the construction of a new factory for charging stations in Tuscany, in San Giovanni Valdarno. A $ 30 million investment for a 16,000 square meter, 180-employee site, which also includes a 3,200 square meter R&D laboratory for design and prototypes.
Businesses that also intercept some Italian companies, primarily the giant of the sector, Enel. At the end of the first half of the year, the charging stations installed by the group (through Enel -X) in Italy and in the rest of the world were 124,000, 42% more than the previous year.
Also in the field are smaller companies, such as the Bergamo-based Scame, with revenues of 143 million. The data of which eloquently highlight what happens if you manage to take advantage of a business in disruptive progress: if three years ago in the E-mobility business unit there were 14 employees, today the total has risen to 70. In the same period the columns of top-ups sold worldwide have gone from 2,000 to 15,000 per year.
Opportunity that attracts structured groups but also start-ups (according to the energy innovation report of the Institute for Competitiveness (I-Com), today almost 1,500 new realities in the energy sector are active in Italy, with a rate of average annual growth of 61%), such as the Milanese Easy Charge, which aims to support municipalities, accommodation facilities and large-scale distribution in the management of their electricity supply network, optimizing recharging activities. And also creating new jobs. “At the moment we are ten – explains the commercial director Luca Ricci – but we expect to grow by hiring at least five other people in two years”.
Trend is (not) my friend
If the national supply chain is clearly delayed, the great certainty concerns the route to follow, which seems to be unequivocally marked. Taking into consideration the alternative engines, we can observe an explosive growth now beyond the marginal niche level that until recently characterized the sector. Among hybrids, plug-in and electric, the new “green” registrations are worth 38% of the market share in Europe in the first half of 2021 (Acea data, which also include the United Kingdom), with exponential growth in all categories.
Compared to the previous year, in fact, plug-in models tripled while hybrid and electric more than double, bringing the total for the period to 2.5 million units, as mentioned almost 40% of the market. Excluding the hybrids and looking only at the “rechargeable” models, progress is exponential: four years ago for each quarter only 50 thousand units were sold in Europe, today twelve times as much.
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