U.S. auto sales are forecast to finish down 17.3% year over year; Cox Automotive revises its full-year 2022 new-vehicle sales forecast to 14.4 million units, down from 15.3 million.
Annual new-vehicle sales pace in June is forecast to finish near 13.8 million, up from last month’s 12.7 million pace, but lower than last year’s 15.5 million level.
June sales volume is expected to fall 7.5% from one year ago to 1.2 million units. Forecast volume in June, however, is a 7.5% increase from last month.
ATLANTA, June 28, 2022 /PRNewswire/ — June U.S. new-vehicle sales are expected to show a market still constrained by a lack of supply, and one that is virtually unchanged since January. According to the Cox Automotive June sales forecast released today, the seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of new-vehicle sales this month is expected to hit 13.8 million, up from last month’s 12.7 million pace but well below last year’s 15.5 million level.
The sales volume in June is expected to finish near 1.2 million units, down 7.5% from last year’s volume of 1.3 million sales. However, this is an increase of 7.5% from May’s volume of nearly 1.1 million units. There is one more selling day this June than last year and the same number as last month.
The current forecast now is for new-vehicle sales volumes to fall below the 14.6 million sold in 2020.
Tight inventory continues to negatively impact new-vehicle sales. Since June of 2021, monthly sales volume has been stuck in a tight window, with little deviation, averaging 1.1 million units a month and peaking only at 1.3 million in June 2021. With no clear timeline for any notable recovery in new-vehicle inventory levels, Cox Automotive is lowering its full-year 2022 U.S. auto sales forecast to 14.4 million units, down from its current forecast of 15.3 million. The current forecast now is for new-vehicle sales volumes to fall below the 14.6 million sold in 2020, when the market was initially ravaged by the global COVID pandemic.
“Last June, I wrote that the concern about the supply situation could not be overstated, as we were in untested territory for the market,” said Charlie Chesbrough, senior economist, Cox Automotive. “That sentiment remains, as there has been no significant shift in the conditions on the ground since last fall. Even though economic conditions have worsened in the past months, the lack of supply is still the greatest headwind facing the auto industry today.”
June and First-Half 2022 Sales Forecast Highlights
In June, light vehicle sales are forecast to reach 1.2 million units, down 7.5% from June 2021. Sales volume in June is expected to rise nearly 181,000 compared to May, or 7.5%.
The SAAR in June 2022 is expected to be 13.8 million, below last year’s 15.5 million level, and up from May’s 12.7 million pace.
Second quarter 2022 sales are forecast to fall 19.3% compared to Q2 2021
First-half sales are forecast to be down 17.3% from the same period in 2021.
General Motors is forecast to outsell Toyota in Q2, jumping back into the top-seller position.
Tesla is the only major brand to increase sales year over year in the first half. Honda, Nissan and VW all see first-half sales drops in excess of 30% year over year.
|
June 2022 New-Vehicle Sales Forecast |
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|
Sales Forecast1 |
Market Share |
|||||||
|
Segment |
Jun-22 |
Jun-21 |
May-22 |
YOY% |
MOM% |
Jun-22 |
May-22 |
MOM |
|
Mid-Size Car |
77,000 |
86,545 |
73,759 |
-11.0 % |
4.4 % |
6.4 % |
6.6 % |
-0.2 % |
|
Compact Car |
73,000 |
109,904 |
67,370 |
-33.6 % |
8.4 % |
6.1 % |
6.0 % |
0.0 % |
|
Compact SUV/Crossover |
165,000 |
202,687 |
154,862 |
-18.6 % |
6.5 % |
13.8 % |
13.9 % |
-0.1 % |
|
Full-Size Pickup Truck |
168,000 |
179,442 |
162,044 |
-6.4 % |
3.7 % |
14.0 % |
14.5 % |
-0.5 % |
|
Mid-Size SUV/Crossover |
220,000 |
212,012 |
205,870 |
3.8 % |
6.9 % |
18.3 % |
18.4 % |
-0.1 % |
|
Grand Total2 |
1,200,000 |
1,297,292 |
1,116,503 |
-7.5 % |
7.5 % |
|||
|
1 Cox Automotive Industry Insights data |
|
2 Total includes segments not shown |
|
Q2 2022 New-Vehicle Sales Forecast |
|||||
|
Sales Forecast[1] |
Market Share |
||||
|
OEM |
Q2 2021 |
Q1 2022 |
Q2 2022 |
Year over Year |
Quarter over Quarter |
|
GM |
683,696 |
509,122 |
575,911 |
-15.8 % |
13.1 % |
|
Toyota |
688,813 |
514,592 |
543,819 |
-21.0 % |
5.7 % |
|
Ford |
472,260 |
429,174 |
496,248 |
5.1 % |
15.6 % |
|
Stellantis |
485,312 |
405,221 |
412,005 |
-15.1 % |
1.7 % |
|
Hyundai |
470,042 |
322,593 |
372,956 |
-20.7 % |
15.6 % |
|
Honda |
486,419 |
266,418 |
254,230 |
-47.7 % |
-4.6 % |
|
Nissan |
323,294 |
227,481 |
217,434 |
-32.7 % |
-4.4 % |
|
Tesla |
76,230 |
129,743 |
144,845 |
90.0 % |
11.6 % |
|
Volkswagen |
206,473 |
113,540 |
138,661 |
-32.8 % |
22.1 % |
|
Subaru |
160,824 |
132,346 |
132,996 |
-17.3 % |
0.5 % |
|
Daimler |
92,443 |
75,939 |
84,245 |
-8.9 % |
10.9 % |
|
BMW |
105,901 |
80,590 |
83,499 |
-21.2 % |
3.6 % |
|
Mazda |
105,909 |
82,268 |
68,409 |
-35.4 % |
-16.8 % |
|
Geely |
36,663 |
24,267 |
28,662 |
-21.8 % |
18.1 % |
|
Tata |
28,265 |
18,193 |
12,910 |
-54.3 % |
-29.0 % |
|
Total |
4,422,544 |
3,333,174 |
3,568,586 |
-19.3 % |
7.1 % |
|
1 Cox Automotive Industry Insights data |
|
First Half 2022 New-Vehicle Sales Forecast |
||||||
|
Sales Forecast1 |
Market Share |
|||||
|
OEM |
H1 2021 |
H1 2022 |
Change |
H1 2021 Share |
H1 2022 Share |
Difference |
|
GM |
1,323,102 |
1,085,033 |
-18.0 % |
15.9 % |
15.7 % |
-0.1 % |
|
Toyota |
1,291,879 |
1,058,411 |
-18.1 % |
15.5 % |
15.3 % |
-0.1 % |
|
Ford |
989,971 |
925,422 |
-6.5 % |
11.9 % |
13.4 % |
1.5 % |
|
Stellantis |
954,963 |
817,226 |
-14.4 % |
11.4 % |
11.8 % |
0.4 % |
|
Hyundai |
804,944 |
695,549 |
-13.6 % |
9.6 % |
10.1 % |
0.4 % |
|
Honda |
833,510 |
520,648 |
-37.5 % |
10.0 % |
7.5 % |
-2.4 % |
|
Nissan |
637,078 |
444,915 |
-30.2 % |
7.6 % |
6.4 % |
-1.2 % |
|
Tesla |
145,530 |
274,588 |
88.7 % |
1.7 % |
4.0 % |
2.2 % |
|
Volkswagen |
369,534 |
252,201 |
-31.8 % |
4.4 % |
3.7 % |
-0.8 % |
|
Subaru |
321,250 |
265,342 |
-17.4 % |
3.8 % |
3.8 % |
0.0 % |
|
Daimler |
182,358 |
160,184 |
-12.2 % |
2.2 % |
2.3 % |
0.1 % |
|
BMW |
183,619 |
164,089 |
-10.6 % |
2.2 % |
2.4 % |
0.2 % |
|
Mazda |
189,167 |
150,677 |
-20.3 % |
2.3 % |
2.2 % |
-0.1 % |
|
Geely |
64,020 |
52,929 |
-17.3 % |
0.8 % |
0.8 % |
0.0 % |
|
Tata |
56,215 |
31,103 |
-44.7 % |
0.7 % |
0.5 % |
-0.2 % |
|
Total |
8,347,140 |
6,901,760 |
-17.3 % |
100.0 % |
100.0 % |
0.0 % |
|
1 Cox Automotive Industry Insights data |
All percentages are based on raw volume, not daily selling rate.
About Cox Automotive
Cox Automotive Inc. makes buying, selling, owning and using vehicles easier for everyone. The global company’s more than 27,000 team members and family of brands, including Autotrader®, Dealer.com®, Dealertrack®, Kelley Blue Book®, Manheim®, NextGear Capital®, VinSolutions®, vAuto® and Xtime®, are passionate about helping millions of car shoppers, 40,000 auto dealer clients across five continents and many others throughout the automotive industry thrive for generations to come. Cox Automotive is a subsidiary of Cox Enterprises Inc., a privately-owned, Atlanta-based company with annual revenues of nearly $20 billion. www.coxautoinc.com
SOURCE Cox Automotive
