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Tesla Model 3 Sales = 2× Ford Mustang Sales or BMW 3 Series Sales (USA)

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Published on October 6th, 2019 |

by Zachary Shahan

Tesla Model 3 Sales = 2× Ford Mustang Sales or BMW 3 Series Sales (USA)

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October 6th, 2019 by Zachary Shahan

Those of us very tied into Tesla news sometimes forget that 9 out of 10 people on the street know close to nothing about Tesla. Additionally, if anything comes to mind when they are asked about Tesla, it is probably misleading FUD that originated from a Tesla smear campaign. On the other hand, practically everyone in the US knows the marketed image of the Ford Mustang and BMW 3 Series. The Mustang is America’s most iconic “muscle car,” a relatively fast and sporty car with “cool dude” or “cool chick” written all over it. The BMW 3 Series is a sporty premium-class sedan from the German engineering geniuses over at BMW that professionals love to love. Both the Mustang and the 3 Series are widely regarded as highly successful vehicles.

Yes, many Tesla fans might find this comparison with the Mustang and 3 Series boring. The Tesla Model 3, an American car, is now so popular that it’s the top selling automobile in the Netherlands and Norway — the top selling automobile, not just the top selling electric automobile or top selling car. It’s so popular here in the United States that we’re often pitting it against best sellers like the Toyota Camry and Honda Accord. Many, many Tesla owners actually expect the Model 3 to pass up those cars in time and become the top selling car in the country. However, I dare you to go survey people at Target and ask them which has more monthly sales, the Tesla Model 3 or the Ford Mustang (or Tesla Model 3 or BMW 3 Series). I think you can guess what the result would be. (Note: I am now inspired to go test my hypothesis out!)

Before I get into the numbers, though, it’s important to note that there are no official figures out there for US Tesla sales. Tesla reports quarterly sales and does not break them out by country or region. Eventually, we get registration data from Europe, China (educated estimates at least), and Canada and can then make a more solid estimate of US sales for the quarter, as well as monthly sales estimates. However, it’s a bit early for all of that since we don’t have September numbers from most countries yet. Even our data-loving friend and contributor Jose Pontes of EV Volumes didn’t want to venture out too far on a limb and provide an early estimate that he might have to walk back. That said, looking at previous months’ data, September figures from the Netherlands and Norway, and deeper historical data, I feel comfortable estimating Model 3 sales between 40,000 and 50,000 in the US in the third quarter. For this report, I’ve settled on 43,000.

With 9 months of Tesla US sales data collected and estimated, I thought it was a good time to revisit Model 3 vs. Mustang and Model 3 vs. 3 Series sales comparisons. As the title indicates, the Model 3 wins, but have a look:.

Note that the last chart above is interactive. You can click between Tesla Model 3 and Ford Mustang 2019 sales.

Note that the last chart above is interactive. You can click between Tesla Model 3 and BMW 3 Series 2019 sales.

As you can see in the charts, the Model 3 seems to have found its way to twice as many homes as either the Mustang or 3 Series in the first 3 quarters of the year. Even if my Model 3 estimate for Q3 is several thousand units off, the result is basically the same. The Model 3 has either seen twice as many sales, a bit more than twice as many sales, or a bit less than twice as many sales as the iconic Ford Mustang and BMW 3 Series.

Perhaps the most important question is: Why are people still buying new Mustangs and 3 Series? Honestly, why would you spend more money to get less? Why would you buy an inferior product in practically every regard that is similarly priced “at the register” but costs much more to operate and maintain? (Note that the Mustang base price is considerably lower than the Model 3 base price, but its operational costs as well as something that could very easily make it more expensive or even much more expensive than the Model 3.)

You know the answer: inertia and lack of awareness. If people are just in the habit of buying Mustangs and 3 Series, they may not give much thought to other options when it’s time for a new ride. If they’re buying one of these cars for the first time, they probably dreamt about it for years or decades beforehand, and had the inertia of that desire plaguing their mind. Furthermore, if they have no idea a Model 3 exists, have no idea it can cost less than $40,000 (or less than $70,000 for that matter), have no idea that it has huge driving quality and acceleration benefits, have no idea that it has the best NHTSA safety score in history, have no idea that you can watch Netflix, Hulu and YouTube in the car, don’t know anything about Autopilot, heard that Teslas catch fire and the company is on the verge of collapsing, or have simply never ridden in or driven a Tesla, they may just think the 3 Series or Mustang is a better vehicle.

No matter the cause of 100,000+ US sales of the Mustang + 3 Series, the news of the day is that the Model 3 now solidly outsells both of those models, and each car that gets into the hands of a new owner can reach many more mass-market consumers and show them why the Model 3 is such a compelling product even at $40,000+.

If you’d like to buy a Tesla — not a Mustang or 3 Series — and get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging in the process, feel free to use my referral code: https://ts.la/zachary63404. Or not.

About the Author

Zachary Shahan Zach is tryin' to help society help itself one word at a time. He spends most of his time here on CleanTechnica as its director and chief editor. He's also the CEO of Important Media. Zach is recognized globally as an electric vehicle, solar energy, and energy storage expert. He has presented about cleantech at conferences in India, the UAE, Ukraine, Poland, Germany, the Netherlands, the USA, Canada, and Curaçao.

Zach has long-term investments in Tesla [TSLA] — after years of covering solar and EVs, he simply has a lot of faith in this company and feels like it is a good cleantech company to invest in. But he offers no investment advice and does not recommend investing in Tesla or any other company.

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Tesla Model 3 = 6th Best Selling Car In USA In 3rd Quarter*

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Published on October 6th, 2019 |

by Zachary Shahan

Tesla Model 3 = 6th Best Selling Car In USA In 3rd Quarter*

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October 6th, 2019 by Zachary Shahan

The Tesla Model 3’s #6 position in 3rd quarter US car sales* seems both shockingly high and surprisingly low at the same time. No, this is not a trick — I’m serious.

On the surface, I consider the Model 3’s US sales shockingly high because the car has by far the highest base price of any car in the top 10. The Honda Civic’s base price is $21,650, the Toyota Camry’s base price is $24,295, the Toyota Corolla’s base price is $19,600, the Honda Accord’s base price is $23,870, the Nissan Altima’s base price is $24,100, and the Tesla Model 3’s base price (online) is $38,990. The smallest separation in price there is more than $15,000, and the Model 3 clearly sits in a very different class that’s out of the financial reach of many households.

On the other hand, as I’ve pointed out extensively, in many circumstances the Model 3’s total cost of ownership over just 5 years could be close to or even lower than the Camry’s, Accord’s, etc. What do you get for that similar 5 year cost of ownership? A tremendously better car. The Model 3 has better safety scores (the best in history), has much better tech (infotainment and semi-autonomous driving tech are far ahead of any competitors’ tech, let alone that of these mainstream models), offers a much better driving experience, is much quicker, is cleaner, and genuinely looks like a higher class car (yes, I think that’s an objective judgement). In that light, it’s surprising the Model 3 isn’t yet the top selling car in the country. However, the vast majority of the public doesn’t know about the Model 3, its benefits, or how competitive it can be on a total cost of ownership basis.

With those initial thoughts out of the way, let’s jump to the numbers.

As you can see, my estimate for Tesla Model 3 sales* put it confidently in the 6th position, 8,000 units below the #5 Nissan Altima and more than 30,000 units behind the #4 Honda Accord (about 10,000 units per month lower). It was just 2,500 units above the #7 Hyundai Elantra in the 3rd quarter.

For the full first 9 months of the year, the Model 3 drops to #9. In the 1st quarter of the year, Tesla shipped most of the cars it produced overseas and was suffering from a US sales wave that saw a peak in deliveries at the end of 2018 followed by a crash in the beginning of 2019. Finishing in 9th place in the first three quarters results in the same narrative, though. The result seems both shockingly high and surprisingly low at the same time.

*Tesla reports quarterly sales and does not break them out by country or region. Eventually, we get registration data from Europe, China (educated estimates at least), and Canada and can then make a more solid estimate of US sales for the quarter, as well as monthly sales estimates. However, it’s a bit early for all of that since we don’t have September numbers from most countries yet. Even our data-loving friend and contributor Jose Pontes of EV Volumes didn’t want to venture out too far on a limb and provide an early estimate that he might have to walk back. That said, looking at previous months’ data, September figures from the Netherlands and Norway, and deeper historical data, I feel comfortable estimating Model 3 sales between 40,000 and 50,000 in the US in the third quarter. For this report, I’ve settled on 43,000.

If you’d like to buy a Tesla Model 3 instead of a Camry, Accord, Civic, or Corolla, and you’d also like to get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging in the process, feel free to use my referral code: https://ts.la/zachary63404.

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Tesla Reached 7,000 Cars Per Week In 3rd Quarter & Nobody Noticed

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Published on October 8th, 2019 |

by Maarten Vinkhuyzen

Tesla Reached 7,000 Cars Per Week In 3rd Quarter & Nobody Noticed

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October 8th, 2019 by Maarten Vinkhuyzen

From the start of Tesla Model 3 production until about a year ago, the most important, nearly daily, Tesla news was about the weekly production numbers. We visited the Bloomberg tracker regularly to stay abreast of the news, and the FUD. And then Tesla started producing over 4,000 vehicles per week regularly and the interest disappeared. Tesla finished the marathon many doubted it could endure for more than a mile, two at the most.

Those were fun times. Tesla reaching 100, 200, 500, and even 1,000/week was an exciting progression of events. Elon Musk teased production numbers on Twitter that were one-time events and some claimed that they could “never” be sustained at a steady production level. The monthly sales number guesstimates on InsideEVs and Tesla’s quarterly delivery disclosures were preceded and followed by heated speculation.

As a somewhat more detailed reminder of what happened, Tesla designed a futuristic 5,000 unit/week production line, only to discover that humans were greatly undervalued and that line had to be redesigned while slowly ramping the production numbers. There was the plan to build a second 5,000 unit/week line when more vehicles were needed.

However, when redesigning the line, optimizing and tuning all the steps, Tesla realized that it would be less costly to enhance the line to higher throughput numbers than to build a second line. To be precise, upgrading to 7,000 units/week would be possible with small enhancements and a little capex. Upgrading to 10,000 units/week would require serious investments. The 7,000 unit/week option was really a no-brainer. The 10,000 unit/week option was a possibility that probably never reached the status of plan, let alone stimulating any actual planning.

When building Gigafactory 3 (GF3) in Shanghai became reality, all talks of 10,000 units/week in Fremont were forgotten (except by some foolhardy trolls).

In those days, Musk and some other figures with a grasp of production tried to explain what 41.6 cars/hour or 1,000 cars/day or 7,000 cars/week represents. Many did simple arrhythmic and proclaimed production of 360,000 or even 365,000 per year.

While 24 x 41.67 indeed equals 1,000, there is never a day when there is no slowing down or stopping of the line. To get to 1,000 cars/day, you have to get to a steady 47/hour. There are always bathroom, coffee, breakage, accident, repair, and other interruptions. For the same reason, you need 1,100 to 1,150 cars/day to reach a 7,000 cars/week. Or, at least, something like that. Jerome Guillen, Tesla’s president of automotive, knows the exact number.

That coveted 7,000 cars/week will not result in 91,000 vehicles/quarter. That is 80,000 at the most. A rule of thumb of 11½ weeks per quarter is often used in planning.

In a production environment, there are always production disturbances, accidents, needed repairs, maintenance, upgrades, alterations, etc., besides the holidays and other valid reasons to close the factory for a day or so longer.

Such issues happened a lot in the disastrous first quarter of this year. They happened at a normal rate in the third quarter, and they will happen in each quarter in the future.

But with a total of 79,837 Tesla Model 3 vehicles produced in the last quarter, we now know that the steady 7,000 unit/week total for a whole quarter has been reached. The most remarkable thing about this achievement is that it was not noted by all those people who were so focused on this number a year ago. It was a non-event, as it should be with a normal carmaker.

About the Author

Maarten Vinkhuyzen Grumpy old man. The best thing I did with my life was raising two kids. Only finished primary education, but when you don’t go to school, you have lots of time to read. I switched from accounting to software development and ended my career as system integrator and architect. My 2007 boss got two electric Lotus Elise cars to show policymakers the future direction of energy and transportation. And I have been looking to replace my diesel cars with electric vehicles ever since.

And putting my money where my mouth is, I have bought Tesla shares. Intend to keep them until I can trade them for a Tesla car.

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