GM Raises 2022 Guidance and Expects North American EV Portfolio to be Profitable in 2025 as Annual Capacity Tops 1 Million
2022-11-21
NEW YORK – General Motors Co. (NYSE: GM) expects its rapidly growing portfolio of electric vehicles will be solidly profitable in 2025 in North America as the company scales EV capacity in the region to more than 1 million units annually, ramps up its software revenue opportunities, generates significant greenhouse gas benefits and realizes the positive impacts of new clean energy tax credits, the company told investors today at a meeting in New York City.
“GM’s ability to grow EV sales is the payoff for many years of investment in R&D, design, engineering, manufacturing, our supply chain and a new EV customer experience that is designed to be the best in the industry,” said GM Chair and CEO Mary Barra. “Our multi-brand, multi-segment, multi price point EV strategy gives us incredible leverage to grow revenue and market share, and we believe our Ultium Platform and vertical integration will allow us to continuously improve battery performance and costs.”
Strong Foundation to Drive EV Growth
In the next three years, GM plans to move very aggressively toward EV leadership as EV adoption is expected to approach 20% of U.S. industry sales in 2025:
- GM will have multiple entries in pickup, SUV and luxury segments that represent about 70% of EV industry volume, including the Chevrolet Silverado EV, Blazer EV and Equinox EV, the Cadillac LYRIQ and the GMC Sierra EV
- GM is launching a new digital retail platform with its U.S. dealer partners to enhance the shopping and purchase experience for EV customers and reduce costs to GM by an estimated $2,000 per vehicle
- Five GM assembly plants in the U.S., Canada and Mexico will be building EVs
- BrightDrop — GM’s tech startup creating EVs, eCarts and software — is on track to reach $1 billion in revenue in 2023, as GM’s CAMI plant in Ontario launches full production of the BrightDrop Zevo 600 delivery van next year, and scaling to a projected 50,000 units annually by 2025
- GM’s battery cell joint venture Ultium Cells will be operating plants in Ohio, Tennessee and Michigan by the end of 2024, making the company a leader in domestic cell production; a fourth U.S. cell plant is planned
- GM has secured binding commitments for all the battery raw material it needs to deliver its 2025 capacity target
- The company continues to secure its needs beyond 2025 with strategic supply agreements and direct investments in natural resource recovery, processing and recycling
- GM’s EV growth is supported by a highly profitable portfolio of internal combustion engine vehicles in North America, including market-leading pickups and SUVs, great quality, and consistently high scores for customer satisfaction with dealer sales and service
In 2023, Chevrolet and GMC will press their advantage in the pickup market with the new 2024 Chevrolet Silverado HD and GMC Sierra HD, which will be available in the first half of 2023, as well as the new Chevrolet Colorado and GMC Canyon mid-size pickups.
Investor Roadmap
During the meeting with investors, Paul Jacobson, GM executive vice president and chief financial officer, updated the company’s 2022 guidance and provided several key performance indicators to help investors track the company’s transformation and financial performance through 2025, all of which exclude the positive benefits from the recently passed clean energy tax credits.
“We’ve built the foundation to rapidly scale our EV portfolio, make it profitable and maintain strong margins during a period of high investment,” said Jacobson. “Our Ultium Platform and battery technology will only get better and less expensive over time, and we have enterprise-wide momentum in EVs, Cruise, software-defined vehicles and new businesses like BrightDrop that will help us achieve our revenue and margin targets by the end of the decade.”
GM now projects full-year 2022 adjusted automotive free cash flow will increase to $10-11 billion from its previous guidance of $7-9 billion. GM now projects 2022 EBIT-adjusted for the full year will be in a range of $13.5-14.5 billion, compared to its previous guidance of $13-15 billion.
GM’s 2023-2025 key performance indicators include:
- Total company revenue is expected to grow at a 12% compound annual rate through 2025, reaching more than $225 billion as EV volumes and software revenue grow. Revenue from EVs is expected to be more than $50 billion in 2025.
- GM expects to build 400,000 EVs in North America from 2022 through the first half of 2024 and grow capacity to 1 million units annually in North America in 2025.
- GM expects to reach U.S. battery cell capacity of more than 160 GWh and 1.2 million cells per day by mid-decade.
- GM is focused on reducing the cell costs for the next generation of its Ultium batteries to under $70/kWh by mid- to late-decade.
- Total capital spending is expected to be $11-13 billion per year through 2025, funded by ongoing healthy cash flows.
- GM expects to maintain its historical EBIT-adjusted margins of 8-10% in North America through this growth investment period.
- GM expects to earn low- to mid-single-digit EBIT-adjusted margins on its EV portfolio in 2025, before the positive impact of clean energy tax credits.
General Motors (NYSE:GM) is a global company focused on advancing an all-electric future that is inclusive and accessible to all. At the heart of this strategy is the Ultium battery platform, which will power everything from mass-market to high-performance vehicles. General Motors, its subsidiaries and its joint venture entities sell vehicles under the Chevrolet, Buick, GMC, Cadillac, Baojun and Wuling brands. More information on the company and its subsidiaries, including OnStar, a global leader in vehicle safety and security services, can be found at https://www.gm.com.
Guidance Reconciliations
The following table reconciles expected Net income attributable to stockholders under U.S. GAAP to expected EBIT-adjusted (dollars in billions):
|
Year Ending |
|
|
Net income attributable to stockholders |
$ 10.0-10.8 |
|
Income tax expense |
1.8-2.0 |
|
Automotive interest expense, net |
0.7 |
|
Adjustments(a) |
1.0 |
|
EBIT-adjusted(b) |
$ 13.5-14.5 |
__________
a) These adjustments were excluded because they relate to the one-time modification of Cruise stock incentive awards and the resolution, in the three months ended March 31, 2022, and substantially all matters related to certain royalties accrued with respect to past-year vehicle sales.
b) We do not consider the potential future impact of adjustments on our expected financial results.
The following table reconciles expected EPS-diluted under U.S. GAAP to expected EPS-diluted-adjusted:
|
Year Ending |
|
|
Diluted earnings per common share |
$ 6.01-6.51 |
|
Adjustments(a)(b) |
0.74 |
|
EPS-diluted-adjusted(c) |
$ 6.75-7.25 |
__________
a) Refer to the reconciliation of expected Net income attributable to stockholders under U.S. GAAP to expected EBIT-adjusted for adjustment details.
b) Includes the tax effect of each adjustment as determined based on the tax laws and valuation allowance status of the jurisdiction to which the adjustment relates. These adjustments also consist of tax benefit related to the release of a valuation allowance against deferred tax assets considered realizable as a result of Cruise tax reconsolidation and a deemed dividend related to the redemption of Cruise preferred shares from SoftBank in the nine months ended September 30, 2022.
c) We do not consider the potential future impact of adjustments on our expected financial results.
The following table reconciles expected automotive net cash provided by operating activities under U.S. GAAP to adjusted automotive free cash flow (dollars in billions):
|
Year Ending |
|
|
Net automotive cash provided by operating activities |
$ 18.8-20.8 |
|
Less: Capital expenditures |
9.0-10.0 |
|
Adjustments(a) |
0.2 |
|
Adjusted automotive free cash flow(b) |
$ 10.0-11.0 |
__________
(a) These adjustments relate to the patent royalty matters and the GM Korea wage litigation.
(b) We do not consider the potential future impact of adjustments on our expected financial results.
Cautionary Note on Forward-Looking Statements: This press release and related comments by management may include “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of the U.S. federal securities laws. Forward-looking statements are any statements other than statements of historical fact. Forward-looking statements represent our current judgment about possible future events and are often identified by words such as “anticipate,” “appears,” “approximately,” “believe,” “continue,” “could,” “designed,” “effect,” “estimate,” “evaluate,” “expect,” “forecast,” “goal,” “initiative,” “intend,” “may,” “objective,” “outlook,” “plan,” “potential,” “priorities,” “project,” “pursue,” “seek,” “should,” “target,” “when,” “will,” “would,” or the negative of any of those words or similar expressions. In making these statements, we rely upon assumptions and analysis based on our experience and perception of historical trends, current conditions, and expected future developments, as well as other factors we consider appropriate under the circumstances. We believe these judgments are reasonable, but these statements are not guarantees of any future events or financial results, and our actual results may differ materially due to a variety of factors, many of which are described in our most recent Annual Report on Form 10-K and our other filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. We caution readers not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements speak only as of the date they are made, and we undertake no obligation to update publicly or otherwise revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events, or other factors that affect the subject of these statements, except where we are expressly required to do so by law.