India’s electric vehicles (EV) value chain revenue pool is expected to reach anywhere between $76 billion and $100 billion by 2030, says a recent report released by Bain & Company.
This could translate to an $8 billion -$11 billion profit pool for the EV industry.
“Contributors to the auto revenue and profit pools in 2030 will be significantly different,” said Deepak Jain, partner at Bain & Company and co-author of the report.
“While 40%–50% of the revenue pool will come from auto OEMs, new business opportunities such as battery (13%), charging (8%), mobility (6%) will emerge and scale. Unified platforms will become the next big play as many EV ecosystem players are looking for forwards or backwards integration.”
Currently the Indian EV sector has seen $3.7 billion private equity and venture capital investments over the past three years.
According to the report, 35%–40% of all vehicles sold in India by 2030 will be EVs, up from 2% right now. This would mean approximately 14-16 million new EVs sold each year. The two-wheel and three-wheel EV segments will achieve 40%-45% penetration by 2030, says the report.
Auto consultants say the passenger vehicle segment too will see rapid penetration going ahead though it will be lower than the government expectation.
Rajat Mahajan, partner, Deloitte India, said: “Passenger vehicles will take time to adopt but we expect electric penetration will hit around 15%-20% by 2030 even though the government expectation is 30%.”
Part of the problem, he says, is the nature of the FAME2 subsidies which are based on 50% local content whereas currently the localisation levels are around 25%.
Interestingly, the Bain report says electric four wheelers and passenger vehicles will constitute the largest segment of the revenue pool of about 41% by value despite seeing relatively lower penetration and volumes, followed closely by two-wheelers at 33%.
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Combined with funding from utilities and other programs, these investments are expected to ensure the state achieves its goal to deploy 250,000 chargers by 2025.
By 2030, about 40-45% of all two-wheelers (2W) and 15-20% of all four-wheelers (passenger vehicles) sold in India will be electric, a report by Bain & Company said.