There are a number of models in Kearney’s report, taking into account various possible scenarios, but even in the most generous of outcomes the pathway to keeping global temperatures from rising more than 1.5deg C is “tight”. “Few reports project a scenario that is achievable without accelerated action,” says the company. “Certainly, the trajectory is too close for comfort.”
Even an all-out global switch to electric cars (from today’s 6% market share) will only cut that overshoot to 50%, because the environmental impact of a car must take into account every facet of each phase of its life cycle, from the supply chain to its production, and throughout the use cycle into end-of-life recycling. And currently, none of those phases are universally emission-neutral.
Kearney said: “So far, the primary focus for the industry has rightly been on electrification of the fleet, targeting the significant portion (60-65% for ICE vehicles) of emissions that come from the tailpipe.” But it said the time has come to shift focus to every other aspect of car production and usage, irrespective of powertrain: “When modelling a hypothetical well-to-wheel scenario of aggressive battery-electric vehicle adoption, powered by hypothetical full switch to fossil-free power sources in parallel, there is still a greenhouse gas emission overshoot, unless supply chain emissions are simultaneously tackled.”
Kearney’s sustainability director Angela Hultberg highlighted the report’s partner firms as evidence for its message: “We have two electric vehicle manufacturers (Polestar and Rivian) saying electrification is not enough.”
The first of three ‘levers’ Kearney says the car industry must pull to avoid over-spending is achieving a 100% EV sales mix by 2032, and that manufacturers should work together to facilitate that goal.
It acknowledges that “such an ambition level and radical acceleration would also cause significant socioeconomic implications that vary by region, posing challenges especially in regions with high population density and relatively low disposable income”, and that global EV demand is still stifled by charging infrastructure shortcomings, range anxiety and the relatively higher prices of electric cars themselves, but says there are opportunities to overcome these obstacles.