TrueCar Releases Analysis of March and First Quarter Industry Sales

Fleet sales are at their highest in three years

SANTA MONICA, Calif., March 29, 2023 /PRNewswire/ — TrueCar, Inc. (NASDAQ: TRUE), the easiest, most efficient and transparent online destination for buying and selling new and used vehicles, expects total new vehicle industry sales to reach 1,356,762 units in March 2023, up 7% from a year ago and up 4% from February 2023, when adjusted for the same number of selling days. This month’s seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total light vehicle industry sales is an estimated 14.7 million, up 8.5% from March 2022. Excluding fleet sales, TrueCar expects U.S. retail deliveries of new cars and light trucks to be 1,131,166 units, up 3% from a year ago and up 2% from February 2023.

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Year-Over-Year % Change in Sales
Year-Over-Year % Change in Sales

“While we’re seeing a modest recovery in retail sales, a key focal point this month will be the return of fleet sales,” said Zack Krelle, Industry Analyst at TrueCar. “Fleet growth has outpaced the retail side as manufacturers find willing and capable commercial buyers. Unit volume and share of sales are on pace to return to pre-pandemic levels. Nissan is expected to be a large contributor to fleet sales this month as they close out their fiscal year.”

“Honda sales are tracking to be their best result in a year and a half,” said Justin Colon, Vice President of OEM Solutions at TrueCar. “They’ve been able to balance an inventory recovery while keeping their portfolio fresh with new model introductions in critical segments.”

Additional March Industry Insights (from TrueCar):

Total sales for March 2023 are expected to be up 7% from a year ago and up 4% from February 2023 when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
Fleet sales for March 2023 are expected to be up 31% from a year ago and up 13.5% from February 2023 when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
Average transaction price for new vehicles is projected to be up 5.6% from a year ago and even with February 2023.
Total SAAR is expected to be up 8.5% from a year ago at about 14.7 million units.
Used vehicle sales for March 2023 are expected to reach 3.4 million, down 3% from a year ago and up 6% from February 2023.
The average interest rate on new vehicles is 6.97%, on par with February 2023 and the average interest rate on used vehicles is 11%.
The average loan term on a new vehicle for March 2023 is about 69 months and the average loan term on a used vehicle is about 70 months.
Quarterly average transaction price is projected to be up 4% from a year ago and about the same as Q4 2022.
Quarterly incentive spend is down 9% from a year ago and up 27% from Q4 2022.

Total Unit Sales

Manufacturer

Mar 2023 Forecast

Mar 2022 Actual

Feb 2023 Actual

YoY % Change

YoY % Change
(Daily Selling Rate)

MoM % Change

MoM % Change
(Daily Selling Rate)

BMW

32,455

30,561

26,808

6.2 %

6.2 %

21.1 %

7.6 %

Daimler

28,745

28,764

26,624

-0.1 %

-0.1 %

8.0 %

-4.0 %

Ford

166,606

158,500

156,377

5.1 %

5.1 %

6.5 %

-5.3 %

GM

225,784

204,829

185,560

10.2 %

10.2 %

21.7 %

8.2 %

Honda

114,503

108,075

83,247

5.9 %

5.9 %

37.5 %

22.3 %

Hyundai

75,498

63,983

61,252

18.0 %

18.0 %

23.3 %

9.6 %

Kia

69,784

59,524

60,859

17.2 %

17.2 %

14.7 %

1.9 %

Nissan

99,089

79,665

72,393

24.4 %

24.4 %

36.9 %

21.7 %

Stellantis

135,681

143,376

119,770

-5.4 %

-5.4 %

13.3 %

0.7 %

Subaru

52,541

43,322

45,790

21.3 %

21.3 %

14.7 %

2.0 %

Tesla

62,145

47,953

60,325

29.6 %

29.6 %

3.0 %

-8.4 %

Toyota

170,462

195,271

157,697

-12.7 %

-12.7 %

8.1 %

-3.9 %

Volkswagen Group

54,387

39,262

47,381

38.5 %

38.5 %

14.8 %

2.0 %

Industry

1,356,762

1,264,300

1,160,877

7.3 %

7.3 %

16.9 %

3.9 %

Retail Unit Sales

Manufacturer

Mar 2023 Forecast

Mar 2022 Actual

Feb 2023 Actual

YoY % Change

YoY % Change
(Daily Selling Rate)

MoM % Change

MoM % Change
(Daily Selling Rate)

BMW

29,496

29,977

25,052

-1.6 %

-1.6 %

17.7 %

4.7 %

Daimler

25,904

27,443

25,169

-5.6 %

-5.6 %

2.9 %

-8.5 %

Ford

119,978

118,539

109,733

1.2 %

1.2 %

9.3 %

-2.8 %

GM

173,276

163,021

153,473

6.3 %

6.3 %

12.9 %

0.4 %

Honda

113,336

104,176

81,868

8.8 %

8.8 %

38.4 %

23.1 %

Hyundai

71,675

63,319

53,035

13.2 %

13.2 %

35.1 %

20.1 %

Kia

66,530

53,572

56,870

24.2 %

24.2 %

17.0 %

4.0 %

Nissan

70,193

64,109

60,090

9.5 %

9.5 %

16.8 %

3.8 %

Stellantis

93,641

113,098

85,170

-17.2 %

-17.2 %

9.9 %

-2.3 %

Subaru

51,000

41,963

43,436

21.5 %

21.5 %

17.4 %

4.4 %

Tesla

55,160

47,447

52,555

16.3 %

16.3 %

5.0 %

-6.7 %

Toyota

152,631

174,182

145,354

-12.4 %

-12.4 %

5.0 %

-6.7 %

Volkswagen Group

47,449

38,135

44,078

24.4 %

24.4 %

7.6 %

-4.3 %

Industry

1,131,166

1,094,894

983,735

3.3 %

3.3 %

15.0 %

2.2 %

Fleet Unit Sales

Manufacturer

Mar 2023 Forecast

Mar 2022 Actual

Feb 2023 Actual

YoY % Change

YoY % Change
(Daily Selling Rate)

MoM % Change

MoM % Change
(Daily Selling Rate)

BMW

2,959

584

1,756

406.3 %

406.3 %

68.5 %

49.8 %

Daimler

2,841

1,321

1,455

115.1 %

115.1 %

95.3 %

73.6 %

Ford

46,628

39,961

46,644

16.7 %

16.7 %

0.0 %

-11.1 %

GM

52,508

41,808

32,087

25.6 %

25.6 %

63.6 %

45.5 %

Honda

1,167

3,899

1,379

-70.1 %

-70.1 %

-15.4 %

-24.8 %

Hyundai

3,823

664

8,217

475.7 %

475.7 %

-53.5 %

-58.6 %

Kia

3,254

5,952

3,989

-45.3 %

-45.3 %

-18.4 %

-27.5 %

Nissan

28,896

15,556

12,303

85.8 %

85.8 %

134.9 %

108.8 %

Stellantis

42,040

30,278

34,600

38.8 %

38.8 %

21.5 %

8.0 %

Subaru

1,541

1,359

2,354

13.4 %

13.4 %

-34.5 %

-41.8 %

Tesla

6,985

506

7,770

1279.4 %

1279.4 %

-10.1 %

-20.1 %

Toyota

17,831

21,089

12,343

-15.4 %

-15.4 %

44.5 %

28.4 %

Volkswagen Group

6,938

1,127

3,303

515.9 %

515.9 %

110.1 %

86.7 %

Industry

221,630

169,208

173,600

31.0 %

31.0 %

27.7 %

13.5 %

Fleet Penetration

Manufacturer

Mar 2023 Forecast

Mar 2022 Actual

Feb 2023 Actual

YoY % Change

MoM % Change

BMW

9.1 %

1.9 %

6.6 %

376.7 %

39.2 %

Daimler

9.9 %

4.6 %

5.5 %

115.3 %

80.9 %

Ford

28.0 %

25.2 %

29.8 %

11.0 %

-6.2 %

GM

23.3 %

20.4 %

17.3 %

13.9 %

34.5 %

Honda

1.0 %

3.6 %

1.7 %

-71.7 %

-38.5 %

Hyundai

5.1 %

1.0 %

13.4 %

387.9 %

-62.3 %

Kia

4.7 %

10.0 %

6.6 %

-53.4 %

-28.9 %

Nissan

29.2 %

19.5 %

17.0 %

49.3 %

71.6 %

Stellantis

31.0 %

21.1 %

28.9 %

46.7 %

7.3 %

Subaru

2.9 %

3.1 %

5.1 %

-6.5 %

-43.0 %

Tesla

11.2 %

1.1 %

12.9 %

964.4 %

-12.7 %

Toyota

10.5 %

10.8 %

7.8 %

-3.1 %

33.6 %

Volkswagen Group

12.8 %

2.9 %

7.0 %

344.6 %

83.0 %

Industry

16.3 %

13.4 %

15.0 %

22.1 %

9.2 %

Total Market Share

Manufacturer

Mar 2023 Forecast

Mar 2022 Actual

Feb 2023 Actual

BMW

2.4 %

2.4 %

2.3 %

Daimler

2.1 %

2.3 %

2.3 %

Ford

12.3 %

12.5 %

13.5 %

GM

16.6 %

16.2 %

16.0 %

Honda

8.4 %

8.5 %

7.2 %

Hyundai

5.6 %

5.1 %

5.3 %

Kia

5.1 %

4.7 %

5.2 %

Nissan

7.3 %

6.3 %

6.2 %

Stellantis

10.0 %

11.3 %

10.3 %

Subaru

3.9 %

3.4 %

3.9 %

Tesla

4.6 %

3.8 %

5.2 %

Toyota

12.6 %

15.4 %

13.6 %

Volkswagen Group

4.0 %

3.1 %

4.1 %

94.9 %

95.2 %

95.1 %

Retail Market Share

Manufacturer

Mar 2023 Forecast

Mar 2022 Actual

Feb 2023 Actual

BMW

2.6 %

2.7 %

2.5 %

Daimler

2.3 %

2.5 %

2.6 %

Ford

10.6 %

10.8 %

11.2 %

GM

15.3 %

14.9 %

15.6 %

Honda

10.0 %

9.5 %

8.3 %

Hyundai

6.3 %

5.8 %

5.4 %

Kia

5.9 %

4.9 %

5.8 %

Nissan

6.2 %

5.9 %

6.1 %

Stellantis

8.3 %

10.3 %

8.7 %

Subaru

4.5 %

3.8 %

4.4 %

Tesla

4.9 %

4.3 %

5.3 %

Toyota

13.5 %

15.9 %

14.8 %

Volkswagen Group

4.2 %

3.5 %

4.5 %

94.6 %

94.9 %

95.1 %

ATP

Manufacturer

Mar 2023 Forecast

Mar 2022 Actual

Feb 2023 Actual

YOY

MOM

BMW

$68,392

$65,608

$69,659

4.2 %

-1.8 %

Daimler

$79,502

$71,290

$78,472

11.5 %

1.3 %

Ford

$52,995

$46,933

$54,193

12.9 %

-2.2 %

GM

$52,620

$49,901

$50,845

5.4 %

3.5 %

Honda

$38,506

$37,830

$38,008

1.8 %

1.3 %

Hyundai

$36,541

$36,402

$37,351

0.4 %

-2.2 %

Kia

$34,108

$34,573

$34,035

-1.3 %

0.2 %

Nissan

$37,718

$34,511

$38,202

9.3 %

-1.3 %

Stellantis

$55,112

$52,890

$54,994

4.2 %

0.2 %

Subaru

$34,839

$34,365

$34,373

1.4 %

1.4 %

Toyota

$42,515

$40,866

$42,288

4.0 %

0.5 %

Volkswagen Group

$49,607

$47,080

$48,550

5.4 %

2.2 %

Industry

$45,397

$42,978

$45,400

5.6 %

0.0 %

$2,419

-$3

Incentives

Manufacturer

Mar 2023 Forecast

Mar 2022 Actual

Feb 2023 Actual

YOY

MOM

BMW

$2,861

$1,823

$2,758

57.0 %

3.7 %

Daimler

$2,289

$1,760

$2,202

30.1 %

4.0 %

Ford

$1,198

$1,595

$1,085

-24.9 %

10.4 %

GM

$2,083

$1,927

$2,000

8.1 %

4.1 %

Honda

$1,349

$1,098

$1,285

22.9 %

5.0 %

Hyundai

$1,019

$645

$950

58.1 %

7.3 %

Kia

$568

$890

$559

-36.1 %

1.7 %

Nissan

$2,311

$1,772

$2,174

30.4 %

6.3 %

Stellantis

$2,581

$2,212

$2,456

16.7 %

5.1 %

Subaru

$836

$873

$832

-4.2 %

0.5 %

Toyota

$729

$905

$714

-19.5 %

2.1 %

Volkswagen Group

$2,273

$1,528

$2,307

48.8 %

-1.5 %

Industry

$1,558

$1,472

$1,485

5.8 %

4.9 %

$86

$72

Incentives as % of ATP

Manufacturer

Mar 2023 Forecast

Mar 2022 Actual

Feb 2023 Actual

YOY

MOM

BMW

4.2 %

2.8 %

4.0 %

50.6 %

5.7 %

Daimler

2.9 %

2.5 %

2.8 %

16.6 %

2.6 %

Ford

2.3 %

3.4 %

2.0 %

-33.5 %

12.9 %

GM

4.0 %

3.9 %

3.9 %

2.5 %

0.6 %

Honda

3.5 %

2.9 %

3.4 %

20.7 %

3.6 %

Hyundai

2.8 %

1.8 %

2.5 %

57.5 %

9.7 %

Kia

1.7 %

2.6 %

1.6 %

-35.3 %

1.5 %

Nissan

6.1 %

5.1 %

5.7 %

19.3 %

7.7 %

Stellantis

4.7 %

4.2 %

4.5 %

12.0 %

4.8 %

Subaru

2.4 %

2.5 %

2.4 %

-5.5 %

-0.9 %

Toyota

1.7 %

2.2 %

1.7 %

-22.6 %

1.5 %

Volkswagen Group

4.6 %

3.2 %

4.8 %

41.2 %

-3.6 %

Industry

3.4 %

3.4 %

3.3 %

0.2 %

4.9 %

Revenue

Manufacturer

Mar 2023 Forecast

Mar 2022 Actual

Feb 2023 Actual

YOY

MOM

Industry

$61,592,598,876

$54,337,043,463

$52,704,052,960

13.4 %

16.9 %

Quarterly Tables

Total Unit Sales

Manufacturer

Q1 2023

Q1 2022

Q4 2022

YoY % Change

YoY % Change
(Daily Selling Rate)

QoQ % Change

QoQ % Change
(Daily Selling Rate)

BMW

84,605

80,590

112,057

5.0 %

5.0 %

-24.5 %

-21.5 %

Daimler

78,929

73,412

87,557

7.5 %

7.5 %

-9.9 %

-6.2 %

Ford

468,053

429,174

479,769

9.1 %

9.1 %

-2.4 %

1.5 %

GM

594,434

509,108

617,575

16.8 %

16.8 %

-3.7 %

0.1 %

Honda

282,264

266,418

255,250

5.9 %

5.9 %

10.6 %

15.0 %

Hyundai

192,656

171,399

211,497

12.4 %

12.4 %

-8.9 %

-5.3 %

Kia

182,626

151,194

175,401

20.8 %

20.8 %

4.1 %

8.3 %

Nissan

231,733

201,081

191,887

15.2 %

15.2 %

20.8 %

25.6 %

Stellantis

365,610

407,550

348,244

-10.3 %

-10.3 %

5.0 %

9.2 %

Subaru

142,704

132,346

155,466

7.8 %

7.8 %

-8.2 %

-4.5 %

Tesla

176,345

130,133

131,574

35.5 %

35.5 %

34.0 %

39.4 %

Toyota

464,918

514,592

537,971

-9.7 %

-9.7 %

-13.6 %

-10.1 %

Volkswagen Group

145,450

114,540

142,039

27.0 %

27.0 %

2.4 %

6.5 %

Industry

3,584,087

3,330,136

3,606,847

7.6 %

7.6 %

-0.6 %

3.3 %

Retail Unit Sales

Manufacturer

Q1 2023

Q1 2022

Q4 2022

YoY % Change

YoY % Change
(Daily Selling Rate)

QoQ % Change

QoQ % Change
(Daily Selling Rate)

BMW

76,891

78,760

103,405

-2.4 %

-2.4 %

-25.6 %

-22.7 %

Daimler

71,128

69,571

82,703

2.2 %

2.2 %

-14.0 %

-10.6 %

Ford

337,059

324,330

338,394

3.9 %

3.9 %

-0.4 %

3.6 %

GM

456,194

402,836

499,104

13.2 %

13.2 %

-8.6 %

-4.9 %

Honda

279,387

258,857

251,092

7.9 %

7.9 %

11.3 %

15.7 %

Hyundai

182,901

169,718

188,202

7.8 %

7.8 %

-2.8 %

1.1 %

Kia

174,110

137,760

163,657

26.4 %

26.4 %

6.4 %

10.6 %

Nissan

164,156

164,170

158,021

0.0 %

0.0 %

3.9 %

8.0 %

Stellantis

252,327

330,551

249,335

-23.7 %

-23.7 %

1.2 %

5.2 %

Subaru

138,519

128,432

148,694

7.9 %

7.9 %

-6.8 %

-3.1 %

Tesla

156,524

125,871

120,829

24.4 %

24.4 %

29.5 %

34.7 %

Toyota

416,286

458,887

486,588

-9.3 %

-9.3 %

-14.4 %

-11.0 %

Volkswagen Group

126,895

111,084

131,712

14.2 %

14.2 %

-3.7 %

0.2 %

Industry

2,994,652

2,896,489

3,063,713

3.4 %

3.4 %

-2.3 %

1.7 %

Total Market Share

Manufacturer

Q1 2023

Q1 2022

Q4 2022

BMW

2.4 %

2.4 %

3.1 %

Daimler

2.2 %

2.2 %

2.4 %

Ford

13.1 %

12.9 %

13.3 %

GM

16.6 %

15.3 %

17.1 %

Honda

7.9 %

8.0 %

7.1 %

Hyundai

5.4 %

5.1 %

5.9 %

Kia

5.1 %

4.5 %

4.9 %

Nissan

6.5 %

6.0 %

5.3 %

Stellantis

10.2 %

12.2 %

9.7 %

Subaru

4.0 %

4.0 %

4.3 %

Tesla

4.9 %

3.9 %

3.6 %

Toyota

13.0 %

15.5 %

14.9 %

Volkswagen Group

4.1 %

3.4 %

3.9 %

95.2 %

95.5 %

95.5 %

Retail Market Share

Manufacturer

Q1 2023

Q1 2022

Q4 2022

BMW

2.6 %

2.7 %

3.4 %

Daimler

2.4 %

2.4 %

2.7 %

Ford

11.3 %

11.2 %

11.0 %

GM

15.2 %

13.9 %

16.3 %

Honda

9.3 %

8.9 %

8.2 %

Hyundai

6.1 %

5.9 %

6.1 %

Kia

5.8 %

4.8 %

5.3 %

Nissan

5.5 %

5.7 %

5.2 %

Stellantis

8.4 %

11.4 %

8.1 %

Subaru

4.6 %

4.4 %

4.9 %

Tesla

5.2 %

4.3 %

3.9 %

Toyota

13.9 %

15.8 %

15.9 %

Volkswagen Group

4.2 %

3.8 %

4.3 %

94.6 %

95.3 %

95.4 %

ATP

Manufacturer

Q1 2023

Q1 2022

Q4 2022

YoY % Change

QoQ % Change

BMW

$68,851

$63,860

$68,810

7.8 %

0.1 %

Daimler

$78,696

$73,231

$73,603

7.5 %

6.9 %

Ford

$54,065

$47,952

$54,351

12.7 %

-0.5 %

GM

$51,808

$50,664

$52,422

2.3 %

-1.2 %

Honda

$37,919

$36,632

$37,366

3.5 %

1.5 %

Hyundai

$37,054

$36,412

$36,879

1.8 %

0.5 %

Kia

$34,150

$33,925

$34,643

0.7 %

-1.4 %

Nissan

$37,857

$33,724

$37,149

12.3 %

1.9 %

Stellantis

$55,093

$52,798

$55,225

4.3 %

-0.2 %

Subaru

$34,704

$34,677

$35,363

0.1 %

-1.9 %

Toyota

$42,256

$40,172

$40,329

5.2 %

4.8 %

Volkswagen Group

$49,148

$45,346

$48,883

8.4 %

0.5 %

Industry

45,452

43,701

45,397

4.0 %

0.1 %

$1,750

$55

Incentives

Manufacturer

Q1 2023

Q1 2022

Q4 2022

YoY % Change

QoQ % Change

BMW

$2,741

$2,358

$1,616

16.3 %

69.6 %

Daimler

$2,127

$2,012

$1,707

5.7 %

24.6 %

Ford

$1,139

$1,824

$1,071

-37.6 %

6.3 %

GM

$2,021

$1,974

$1,382

2.4 %

46.2 %

Honda

$1,325

$1,163

$999

13.9 %

32.6 %

Hyundai

$948

$890

$974

6.6 %

-2.7 %

Kia

$601

$1,260

$476

-52.3 %

26.4 %

Nissan

$2,130

$1,848

$1,457

15.2 %

46.2 %

Stellantis

$2,380

$2,413

$1,669

-1.3 %

42.6 %

Subaru

$859

$901

$547

-4.7 %

56.9 %

Toyota

$710

$1,025

$653

-30.7 %

8.8 %

Volkswagen Group

$2,154

$1,769

$1,514

21.8 %

42.3 %

Industry

1,486

1,631

1,168

-8.9 %

27.2 %

-$145

$318

(Note: This industry insight is based solely on TrueCar, Inc.’s analysis of domestic industry sales trends and conditions and is not a projection of TrueCar, Inc.’s operations.)

About TrueCarTrueCar is a leading automotive digital marketplace that lets auto buyers and sellers connect to our nationwide network of Certified Dealers. With access to an expansive inventory provided by our Certified Dealers, we are building the industry’s most personalized and efficient auto shopping experience as we seek to bring more of the process online. Consumers who visit our marketplace will find a suite of vehicle discovery tools, price ratings and market context on new, used and Certified Pre-Owned vehicles. When they are ready, shoppers in TrueCar’s marketplace can connect with a Certified Dealer in our network, who shares our belief that truth, transparency and fairness are the foundation of a great auto shopping experience. As part of our marketplace, TrueCar powers auto-buying programs for over 250 leading brands, including AARP, Sam’s Club, Navy Federal Credit Union and American Express.

For more information, please visit www.truecar.com, and follow us on LinkedInFacebook or Twitter.

SOURCE TrueCar.com


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