ICRA predicts that the demand scenario for the Indian road logistics sector will remain favorable in FY24, with the industry revenue growth expected to be in high single digits on an elevated base of FY23.
This is supported by stable domestic consumption and investment demand. However, there are downside risks to these estimates due to high inflationary and interest rate regimes, the emergence of any further Covid waves, or a sub-par monsoon impacting the overall economic health. Despite these risks, cash flows and debt coverage metrics are expected to remain comfortable with stable earnings.
The Indian road logistics sector faced headwinds in FY23 such as general inflation, higher fuel prices, non-availability of drivers, etc. but it was still supported by an accelerated pace of business activities, improving demand from end-user segments, and favorable realizations. Additionally, debt-funded capital expenditure for vehicle replacement required before the introduction of the scrappage policy is likely to be manageable.
Suprio Banerjee, Vice President & Sector Head – Corporate Ratings, ICRA, said: “ICRA expects the aggregate operating profit margins of the sample to moderate to 12%-14% in FY24, compared to 14.0% in FY22. The operators’ ability to effect further rate hikes to offset input price increases amid stiff competition remains a key credit monitorable. Revenue growth over the medium term would continue to be driven by demand from varied segments like e-commerce, FMCG, retail, chemicals, pharmaceuticals, and industrial goods coupled with the industry’s paradigm shift towards organised logistics players, post-GST, and e-way bill implementation.”
In Q3 FY23, the logistics sector saw a marginal contraction of 2% in quarterly revenues compared to Q2 FY23 due to uneven economic activity, despite robust demand for contact-intensive services and upbeat sentiment during the festive season.
However, ICRA expects Q4 FY23 revenues to be better than Q3, supported by favorable demand and realizations. While organized players managed rate hikes to a large extent, margins moderated to 12.3% in 9M FY23 over 13.8% in 9M FY22 due to increased fuel charges not being adequately covered by hire charge increases.
FASTag and E-way bill volumes peaked in December 2022 but sequentially decreased in January and February 2023 post the festive season impact in Q3. On a Y-o-Y basis, FASTag volumes for January and February 2023 grew by 24% and E-way bill volumes grew by 19%. The volumes are expected to remain stable over FY24, given the expectation of a favorable demand scenario in the near term.