The electric vehicle (EV) market’s collective accomplishments over the last few years offer hope, despite the short-term impact of Covid-19 – a pattern of continued growth, which is expected to be sustained throughout the 2020s….
Our global EV forecast is for a compound annual growth rate of 29% achieved during 2020-30: total EV sales growing from 2.5 million in 2020 to 11.2 million in 2025, then reaching 31.1 million by 2030. EVs would secure about 32% of the total market share for new car sales.
Annual car sales are unlikely to reach pre-Covid-19 levels until 2024. However, the pace of recovery is forecasted to be a result of a slowdown in internal combustion engine (ICE) sales.
We expect that by 2030, China will hold 49% of the global EV market, Europe will account for 27%, and the US will hold 14%.
The share of new car sales taken up by EVs will vary considerably across markets. We forecast China to achieve a domestic market share of around 48% by 2030 – almost double that of the US (27%), and Europe at 42%. But this doesn’t tell the whole story.
Growth in Northern and Western Europe is expected to outstrip that in Southern and Eastern Europe as wealthier countries likely invest more in infrastructure and offer greater cash and tax incentives to accelerate initial growth.
From ‘Electric Vehicles: Setting a Course for 2030′, Deloitte
