Rochester ― Oakland County should experience continued “positive” economic growth over the next three years, even as the national economy continues to recover from the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, two University of Michigan economists said Monday.
Presenting their projections to dozens of business and county leaders as part of Oakland County’s 38th annual economic outlook, economists Gabriel Ehrlich and Donald Grimes of the UM Research Seminar in Quantitative Economics said Michigan’s second most populous county should see continued job growth across industries, even as the national economy slows.
And even with a continued labor shortage, the county recovered about 82% of the jobs it lost during the pandemic by the end of 2022, Ehrlich said.
“We are projecting job growth to continue from here and we expect the county to get back to the pre-pandemic employment levels by early 2025,” said Ehrlich, director of UM’s Research Seminar in Quantitative Economics.
The auto industry may still be experiencing significant backlogs and a microchip shortage but that could “push employment” in the industry, he said.
“We’re still in what you might consider recessionary levels of vehicle sales,” Ehrlich said. “The automakers are still restocking inventories in most cases. The microchip shortage was such a thorn in our side over the last couple of years, but the silver lining today is we expect those backlogs of demand to push employment in the vehicle manufacturing industry even as the national economy wobbles.”
Oakland, one of the nation’s most prosperous counties, is expected to see job gains over the next three years, bringing its payroll jobs count back to pre-pandemic levels in the second quarter of 2025 and 1.2% higher by the end of that year, according to the economists’ report.
The economic forecast predicts jobs in Oakland will grow 1.4% this year, 1.3% in 2024 and 1.6% in 2025. But labor shortages “will be an ongoing fact of life for the foreseeable future in southeastern Michigan,” Ehrlich and Grimes said.
The economists also noted that prosperity is uneven in the county. As of 2021, the area containing Pontiac and Waterford Township had an average household income after adjusting for household size that was less than one half the average in the area containing Birmingham, Bloomfield Hills and Bloomfield Township.
The economists also expressed concern about Oakland County’s resident employment declining by 8,000 in the 12-month period ending in February 2023. A number of factors could be at play, including commuting and workers with multiple jobs.
When asked about filling gaps in health care employment with immigrants, Oakland County Executive David Coulter said “historically low unemployment rates” are making it difficult to find in-home workers in all fields.
“This county and this state are attracted to people from all nationalities from all countries, because we do need immigration in this country. We need more skills in this country. It helps makes our county and our country stronger,” Coulter said. “We’re also open to foreign-born residents where needed and where they can contribute to our economy.”
Overall, the economists said Oakland County is “well-positioned” for the future, despite the challenges facing local and national economies.
“The combination of an educated populace, a high share of managerial and professional jobs and an attractive standard of living should provide a solid foundation for economic prosperity over our forecast period and in the years to come,” according to the UM report.
mjohnson@detroitnews.com