New Delhi: Mega trends in the evolution of the mobility industry, from horse carts to electric to autonomous cars, have been shaping society and the industry. With a picture of horse carts from the 1900s, Tapan Sahoo, Executive Director – Maruti Suzuki India Ltd. and Chairman – SAENIS, explained how this has been happening down the decades to the present state.
In his Inaugural address at SAE India‘s ‘Road to Virtual World‘ conference 2023, Sahoo discussed the evolution of the mobility world and the societal megatrends of climate change and environmental degradation.
The global temperatures are on a continuous rise, therefore, sustainability has become a major driver in decision making. Major countries have set a carbon neutrality target for 2050. India’s carbon neutrality target is 2070, he said.
Rapid Urbanization: In 1960, 34% of the world’s population was living in urban areas, in 2014 it increased to 54%. By 2050 it is expected to be 66%.
Ruling middle class: By 2030 it is speculated that around 60% of the world population will belong to the middle class, the major chunk of consumers.
He then addressed the factors that drive the global EV market. Due to climate change the COP26 aim is to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees celsius by 2030. Hence, the manufacturers are moving towards their goal of carbon neutrality.
In order to secure energy, the move towards renewable and alternate sources is also being adopted. The government is releasing more and more stringent norms to bring down the vehicle tailpipe CO2 emissions.
In 2021, the total EV share in India was 0.01% with 0.02 million units, which is expected to rise to 17% in 2030 with 1 million units.
He then spoke about how the growing economy, increasing consumerism–unique consumer with low income but high aspirations, consumer who wants vehicles with latest technologies on the go but at an affordable cost, and digital exposure is transforming India to evolve in terms of mobility and technology adoption.
Talking about India’s need for ‘Safe Mobility’ Sahoo said that in India the road fatality rate is very high. 12 people in 100,000 lose their lives in road accidents. In the US the number is 10, while in the UK and Japan this number is 3.2 and 3 respectively.
This calls for stricter regulations such as mandatory airbags, and the latest addition, BNCAP.
The global automotive trends–Autonomous vehicles, Connected vehicles, etc. in the Indian context are difficult to apply. There are various challenges in India like value consciousness, high congestion, high pollution and import duties, to which he also discussed the solutions, which are affordability, connected and shared mobility and environment friendly technology and most importantly, safer mobility.
Sahoo concluded by saying that, “Simulation is the key to addressing future development challenges.” Simulation decreases the time to market, it can cover corner cases, it can be repeatedly done and it is cost effective. Hence, simulation is much better than physical prototyping.
