Editor’s Note: This week, we travel in Peter’s dream to the year 2035 as he details the state of the industry. As PMD says at the end, “the memorable moments in life are fleeting and precious, and still worth pursuing.” A hopeful sentiment that bears repeating today and every day, really. In On The Table, we preview the new Mercedes-AMG GLE 53 HYBRID, and we get a first look at the Origin, a people-centric vehicle co-developed by GM, Cruise and Honda in a new joint venture specifically for autonomous transportation. And our AE Song of the Week is the always-uplifting (not) “The End” by The Doors. In Fumes, Peter delivers Part VI of his popular series “Famous Front Rows” with more provocative images and words. And finally, we have racing highlights from the United States Grand Prix at Circuit of The Americas and the MotoGP™ Guru by Gryfyn Australian Motorcycle Grand Prix in The Line. Onward. -WG
By Peter M. DeLorenzo
Detroit. Deep in the throes of another sleepless night, delirious with the knowledge that it was the early hours of Monday morning and I still hadn’t written a column or even thought about it, the urgent, searing guitar riffs of one of Mr. Petty’s signature songs took over my thoughts.
And suddenly, it was 2035.
I stepped out into the darkness, wandering around in a world that looked, well, remarkably as it looks today. I noticed a few stray autonomous vehicles doing their rote routines, with their blue LEDs indicating what they were. But they were – not surprisingly – insignificant, part of the thrum of a new reality, but only a bit part.
And as the darkness lightened slightly, I started to see the ebb and flow of traffic on Woodward Avenue. Some avant-garde designs were noticeable – aero shapes punctuated by their wildly diverse lighting systems – but they were clearly full-zoot luxury machines. Other cars were decidedly less adventurous, a mix of small- to medium-sized conveyances that really didn’t look all that much different from today. And yes, the traffic flow was dominated by SUV-like vehicles still, the American consumer having long ago abandoned any thought of going back to a typical passenger car.
The sounds were diverse too. A mix of BEV whine, hybrids and yes, full-on ICE machines as well. It was obvious that the prognostications of a complete transition to BEVs were dead wrong. The “Grand Transition” was clearly not only a work in progress, it had stalled out mightily in the mid-2020s, as the perpetual negatives associated with BEVs – the excruciatingly slow-to-develop infrastructure combined with the costly realities – crushed the BEV dreams of those convinced that it was The Future. The result? Scores of consumers happily embracing ICE vehicles for two reasons: cost and the freedom of movement with no limitations. And the manufacturers who continued to hone their ICE offerings were reaping the financial rewards because of it.
I did notice as I walked past the local Speedway gas station/convenience store that a row of quick-charging stations for BEVs sat empty, but the gas pumps were already busy.
I found myself back at my computer and I began to peruse some of the stories. Stellantis had struggled mightily to gain a foothold in the “Grand Transition” to BEVs but had failed miserably, so much so that the company’s business in the U.S. revolved around ICE vehicles – hybrid Ram Trucks and Jeeps.
The Toyota conglomerate now included Honda and Mazda – as completely separate entities – as well as Subaru. And Lexus survived as a fully-electric brand after Toyota bought out the assets of Tesla, which had gone bankrupt five years earlier, a direct result of the “Muskian Nightmare” as St. Elon’s runaway ego ran the company right into the ground. Other news? Peugeot-Citroën had taken over Renault and solidified into one company, with Nissan being absorbed and rebranded as Datsun worldwide and Infiniti having been discontinued.
Daimler and BMW had entered into a joint operating agreement; both Mercedes and BMW retained product independence in the new German company and were joined by Aston Martin, which finally ran out of time and money trying to keep its luxury brand afloat.
The VW Group long ago established itself as the largest automotive conglomerate in the world. The news? Its working agreement with the Ford Motor Company had evolved into a full takeover, as Ford’s restructuring was stalled by its perpetually late product cadence, ineffectual leadership and having pissed away billions trying to become a mobility company. And for the first time in its history Ford was no longer controlled by the Ford family, although the family still maintained a significant – but notably reduced (from 40 to 20 percent) – presence in terms of stock and influence.
And what of GM? Mark Reuss had succeeded Mary Barra, and his wise strategy of continuing to develop ICE technology, while selectively competing in various BEV segments, resulted in GM delivering increased profits and market share. But Mark would soon retire, and who would run the company after him was still in question. The Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet and GMC-Hummer divisions remained intact, however.
As for the Chinese and Korean manufacturers, their presence had been growing to the point that the mainstream BEV market was dominated by their brands. It was indeed a different automotive world.
The most amazing thing I discovered in my future dream was that all of the hundreds of billions of dollars spent on the development of autonomous vehicles had turned out to be the biggest financial disaster – this side of The Great Recession – in automotive history. The focus on autonomous conveyances and the promise of a Utopian future of no-involvement ride sharing and rent-by-the-minute usage had devolved into lawyered-up tech companies fighting over a few big municipal fleets, contracts with the U. S. Post Office and very narrowly-focused utilization for the elderly. The Masters from The Valley of Silicon were incredulous that consumers just didn’t buy into their all-encompassing brilliance.
The wholesale consumer acceptance of mass usage rental vehicles turned out to be a mirage, as real people with real lives convincingly reminded the brainiacs that the reality of mass ride sharing just doesn’t work in the real world, where the comings and goings of an average family will never fit into a perfect little autonomous box.
The brightening sky was now getting dark again, as storm clouds rolled in from the west. I went out and fired up The Beast one more time, just to remind myself that the memorable moments in life are fleeting and precious, and still worth pursuing.
And then I woke up and began writing…
I’ll leave it to Mr. Petty to close this one out:
I rolled on as the sky grew dark
I put the pedal down to make some time
There’s something good waitin’ down this road
I’m pickin’ up whatever’s mine
I’m runnin’ down a dream
That never would’ve come to me
Workin’ on a mystery, goin’ wherever it leads
Runnin’ down a dream
And that’s the High-Octane Truth for this week.
Editor’s Note: Click on “Next 1 Entries” at the bottom of this page to see previous issues. – WG