The Indian rupee is likely to decline at the open on Tuesday, on diminishing odds that the U.S. Federal Reserve will slash borrowing costs this quarter.
Non-deliverable forwards indicate the rupee will open at around 83.10 to the U.S. dollar, compared with its close of 83.0650 on Friday. The market was closed on Monday.
The USD/INR near outlook is now “more or less neutral”, having made its way back above 83, a forex trader at a bank said.
“In an environment where markets are recalibrating expectations on the Fed’s March move, the (USD/INR’s) recent low of near 82.80 will not be revisited.”
The probability of a Fed rate cut in March has dropped to nearly 40%, from 75% a week back, according to the CME FedWatch tool. The odds of a cut at next week’s meeting are almost zero.
Recent U.S. economic data and comments from Fed officials have prompted investors to rethink when the U.S. central bank will deliver its first rate cut.
A host of Fed officials last week, beginning with Governor Christopher Waller, pushed back on market expectations of aggressive rate cuts, cautioning that the central bank will need to be sure that inflation will drop to sustain around the 2% target before cutting rates.
Last week, the dollar index climbed to its highest in more than a month, while U.S. Treasury yields are now well off recent lows.
The focus this week will be on the Bank of Japan’s policy decision, due shortly, and the European Central Bank’s decision on Thursday.
On the BoJ policy, “the market’s attention will be on what Governor Kazuo Ueda thinks about inflation and wage growth and whether he will give any hints of policy change in the near future,” ING Bank said in a note.
