The Indian rupee was slightly on the back foot on Thursday, pressured by equity-related dollar outflows, but traders expect the local unit’s downside to be capped by dollar selling-interest from exporters.
The rupee was at 82.8725 as of 10:20 a.m. IST, barely changed from its close at 82.8625 in the previous session.
The dollar index was higher by 0.1% at 102.88, while Asian currencies were mostly rangebound.
The rupee is likely to have a “mostly quiet day,” a foreign exchange trader at a state-run bank said, noting a continuation of equity-related outflows may pressure the currency slightly on Thursday.
Foreign investors net sold over $500 mln worth of Indian equities on Wednesday, according to provisional exchange data, which pressured the rupee to its worst day in three weeks.
“After the outflows impact on the rupee, it is expected to trade in a subdued note between 82.75 and 82.90,” Arnob Biswas, head of foreign exchange research at SMC Global Securities said.
The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield inched up to 4.20% in Asia hours after rising 5 basis points (bps) on Wednesday as markets anticipate that sticky inflation in the United States may convince the Fed to further delay rate cuts.
Market participants are currently pricing in a 69% chance of a rate cut in June, down slightly from 72% a month earlier, according to CME’s FedWatch tool. A March cut has been nearly priced out, while the odds for a May cut are below 10%.
Investors will now be keeping an eye on the release of U.S. retail sales and initial jobless claims data for further cues on how the U.S. economy is faring.
