Rupee to see muted reaction to US inflation flare-up

<p>The dollar/rupee pair "is now in a phase" where dips to 83.20-83.25 will find buyers, while 83.40 will bring in sellers, he said.</p>
The dollar/rupee pair “is now in a phase” where dips to 83.20-83.25 will find buyers, while 83.40 will bring in sellers, he said.

The Indian rupee is expected to open little changed on Friday, despite a pick-up in U.S. inflation which spurred a rise in U.S. Treasury yields and further reduced the likelihood of imminent Federal Reserve rate cuts.

Non-deliverable forwards indicate the rupee will open at 83.30-83.32 to the U.S. dollar, compared with its close of 82.3150 in the previous session.

The losses in other Asian currencies were moderate, with most down just about 0.1%.

I “would have thought that Asia would be under a lot of stress. However, that has not happened, making it a dull opening,” a currency trader at a bank said.

The dollar/rupee pair “is now in a phase” where dips to 83.20-83.25 will find buyers, while 83.40 will bring in sellers, he said.

The 10-year U.S. yield rose to the highest since November and the 2-year yield topped 5% on Thursday after data showed that a measure of inflation rose more than expected.

The core PCE rose by 3.7% in the first quarter, above expectations of a 3.4% increase.

The data “implies upside risks to” the monthly core PCE deflator and makes a near-term Fed rate cut all the more less likely, ING Bank.

The March core PCE index, due later in the day, is forecast to rise 0.3% month-on-month.

“Assuming no revisions in January and February, this quarterly print implies a monthly core PCE inflation rate for March of 0.48%, well above our prior expectations,” Morgan Stanley said in a note.

The odds of a Fed rate cut in July is down to 1-in-3 and investors are pricing in just 35 basis points of total cuts this year.

Meanwhile, U.S. GDP increased at a 1.6% annualized rate last quarter, below expectations.

It was higher inflation that caught the market’s eye, rather than weaker growth, ING Bank said.

  • Published On Apr 26, 2024 at 02:54 PM IST

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